U.S Presidential Elections - Dare to call it?

PH01

With only a few days left before polling, does anyone dare to call who's going to win the 2004 US Presidential Elections and why?

I'm tipping Kerry.
I reckon it'll come down to who wins Florida and Kerry looks on an upward trend here. So for me it's Kerry to do the double this year.

begbie

I think sadly, Bush might do it again. I hope Kerry wins though.

Third_Echelon

PH01 wrote:

I reckon it'll come down to who wins Florida and Kerry looks on an upward trend here. So for me it's Kerry to do the double this year.

kerry... for the same reason...

I have this funny feeling in the back of my mind though that bush will win somehow... friends in high places like the last time around may come to the rescue.. democracy my arse!!!

super_furry

I think Kerry might just sneak it thanks to first-time voters more concerned with getting rid of Bush than having Kerry as a president.

begbie

Rock Against Bush, haha!

ixoy

Based on the latest electoral vote poll, and generallly gloomy disposition (being the beginning of a working week), I have the sad feeling that the buffon Bush will win it. I really really hope I'm wrong but I've a feeling I won't be. *Sigh*

Sleepy

super_furry wrote:

I think Kerry might just sneak it thanks to first-time voters more concerned with getting rid of Bush than having Kerry as a president.

I think this'll have a major baring on things too. Also of interest is the fact that mobile phones aren't included in the poling and large numbers of young Americans (who are traditionally more likely to vote democrat) have given up their landlines in favour of a mobile.

Bush looks scarily likely to win again, but one can only hope the polls aren't as accurate as they are purported to be.

Then again, Kerry looks the more likely to take Ohio and no Republican president has ever won without Ohio...

Fúck it, heart over head: Kerry.

Hobbes

Kerry.

Although some are suspecting they will be cancelled.

http://us.rediff.com/news/2004/oct/25arun.htm

Also I was watching our favorite right wing news channel and they mentioned should Kerry win there would be civil war as it is clear that everyone loves Bush. But then didn't Bush get egged into office?

BuffyBot

I'm gonna say Kerry..


...and cross my fingers

Manach

Bush : for the average American voter would better identify with his rather, ah, quaint qualities.

Hobbes

Manach wrote:

Bush : for the average American voter would better identify with his rather, ah, quaint qualities.

Not sure that is fair. Quite a few people don't like Bush and if you think he has screwed over the world, what he has done to the US will take generations to fix.

mycroft

PH01 wrote:

With only a few days left before polling, does anyone dare to call who's going to win the 2004 US Presidential Elections and why?

I'm tipping Kerry.
I reckon it'll come down to who wins Florida and Kerry looks on an upward trend here. So for me it's Kerry to do the double this year.

According to the Independent there are 4,000 lawyers (2,000 Democrat, 2,000 republician) in the state of florida alone in case there are any Shenanigans. In total both parties have actually raised an army of 10,000 lawyers with the democrats having 9 private jets on standby in case there are shenanigans, and surely the republicans have the same or more.

Now aside from providing me the opportunity to use the word "shenanigans" twice in one paragraph and giving me the mental image of a group of lawyers on a dawn raid on Orlando coming in low in choppers as ride of the valykries roars through on speakers (Karl Rove chomping on a cigar "I love the smell of a supreme court writ in the morning") the other mental image is "we ain't seen nothing with the hanging chads" and this election will be bitter, and the "winner" won't be announced for weeks.

(feel free to correct me TomF)

PH01

Hobbes wrote:

Also I was watching our favorite right wing news channel and they mentioned should Kerry win there would be civil war as it is clear that everyone loves Bush. But then didn't Bush get egged into office?

You're joking, right? :eek:

DMC

What way is California leaning in the polls? With the most electoral college votes, and with a very popular Republican governor, it has been seen as a banker in the past for the Democrats... I think Kerry will win Florida, but it will be worthless if places like New York or California turn.

PH01

mycroft wrote:

...the "winner" won't be announced for weeks.

...go'wan call it then. I dare ya!
If you had only 10¢ left in the world, who would you put it on and why?

ps. I like the imagery btw

PH01

DMC wrote:

What way is California leaning in the polls? With the most electoral college votes, and with a very popular Republican governor, it has been seen as a banker in the past for the Democrats... I think Kerry will win Florida, but it will be worthless if places like New York or California turn.

Kerry would have to grow horns and tail before the democrats lose California and New York.
But then again something catastrophic could happen...

Hobbes

PH01 wrote:

You're joking, right? :eek:

Joking about which bit? Foxnews had personal comment piece a few days ago where they claimed there would be civil war as there was no way Kerry has a chance of winning. Like all foxnews I would take with a ton of salt.

As for the egged into office. Yes this is true. The walk into the white house had to be called off because eggs were thrown at the president. The only president ever to have this happen to them. F911 movie has footage of it.


Btw... current paddy power results.

PaddyPower wrote:

2004 US Presidential Elections
George W. Bush (Rep) 4 - 7
John Kerry (Dem) 5 - 4
Monday 1st November 2004, 23:59

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

the cynic in me knows that bush will win, but I still have a little bit of hope..

sovtek

From what I've read there are millions of new voters this time around (something the ABB'ers don't like to talk about) and most are supposedly Democrat.
Kerry....about 60 % sure.
Of course that assumes the fix isn't in.
Are there any bookie odds on Nader?

gandalf

Unfortunately at this moment I think Bush will win it and that outcome makes me sick to my stomach!

pete

Sleepy wrote:

Also of interest is the fact that mobile phones aren't included in the poling and large numbers of young Americans (who are traditionally more likely to vote democrat) have given up their landlines in favour of a mobile.

Not quite

"Pollsters don't think the cell phone issue will affect them this year, but they are worried about it," said Michael Brick, a survey methods specialist at Westat, a research firm in Rockville, Maryland. "This may be the last round of presidential elections before it does have an effect."

When tracking this year's election, pollsters contact people on traditional phones. (Special Report: America Votes 2004, poll tracker)

About 5 percent of all households receive telephone service only by cellular phone, according to a face-to-face survey done earlier this year by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Among young adults up to age 24, the number is close to three times as high.

"Many of these people are not voters," said Linda Piekarski, vice president of database and research at Survey Sampling International, which provides samples for the research industry.

"They've always been hard to get into our polls anyway. They tend to be non-responsive."

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/polls.cellphones.ap/index.html

oh and i'd say Kerry by a whisker. or bush by a comfortable couple of percent.

definitely one or the other.

sovtek

gandalf wrote:

Unfortunately at this moment I think Bush will win it and that outcome makes me sick to my stomach!

On the other hand Kerry is only going to represent the status quo...which is what got Bush in there in the first place.
With another 4 years of Bush I think people will get pissed off enough to actually do something to change things.
Only worries me how much damage can be done in that time.
Kerry isn't really going to make Iraq better...which has all sorts of implications.
I hope Nader's health stays with him for 8 more years.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

seamus

I have this disgusting feeling in the pit of my stomach that Bush will scrape through, by hook or by crook (again).

mycroft

PH01 wrote:

...go'wan call it then. I dare ya!
If you had only 10¢ left in the world, who would you put it on and why?

ps. I like the imagery btw

Well Bush has the supreme court in his pocket, which if the election results are contested is likely to find in his favour.

Thats the other critical factor in this election, the supreme court 3-4 judges look set to retire/pop their clogs over the term of the next president which means either Bush or Kerry will get to decide whom sits on the bench. The court has immense power and judges are elected for life, if Bush wins see the court getting stuffed with bible thumping neo cons who'll overturn things like Roe V Wade, a heavily conservative supreme court could radically change the course of US society over the next ten years.

bonkey

I think that - barring unforseen events in the next few days ("Oh look, we caught Osama a day before the US election...wouldyabelieveit"), and assuming that the unknown demographics follow anything like the trends that they normally do, then Kerry should win it.

That said, as far as I can remember, the "President Futures" market is still favouring Bush, and although non-scientific in nature, it has a scarily good record.

I'll say that it will go to another Supreme Court decision, which will ultimately end up going Bush's way before all the issues are actually resolved....again.

jc

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

mike65

Bush to win by a hanging chad.

Mike.

bobbyjoe

Have a gut feeling it'll be Kerry, hope it is.

Anyone know if its worth staying up watching on election night or will it be a while before the results start coming in?

bobbyjoe

Latest from Paddy Power


2004 US Presidential Elections
Selection Prices
George W. Bush (Rep) 4 - 6
John Kerry (Dem) 11 - 10

Monday 1st November 2004, 23:59

Memnoch

i called it for bush a while back and I'm sticking with it.

This is one instance where I REALLY hope I am proven wrong, but a Bush victory seems the most likely outcome to me. (by hook or crook ofc)

AngelofFire

i think that kerry has a good chance, all he has to do is secure the states that he is almost gauranteed to do so at this stage and florida or ohio. Polls show that he is gaining ground in ohio and florida.

jank

I think Kerry will edge.

Im not sure about all the polls, so many variations and I think a large young "protest vote" will come out a hurt bush bad in the battleground states.

Heres's hoping!

BEAT

Sleepy wrote:

I think this'll have a major baring on things too. Also of interest is the fact that mobile phones aren't included in the poling and large numbers of young Americans (who are traditionally more likely to vote democrat) have given up their landlines in favour of a mobile.

Bush looks scarily likely to win again, but one can only hope the polls aren't as accurate as they are purported to be.

Then again, Kerry looks the more likely to take Ohio and no Republican president has ever won without Ohio...

Fúck it, heart over head: Kerry.

I am in Ohio and I have to tell you that both of them have been here atleast once a month for the last 4 or 5 months. They realise what you said too ofcourse, and I think Kerry will win Ohio but somehow I still think Bush will win the election. Republicans are tricky (tricky dick)
I will be voting for Kerry, not because I like him, I dont. Because I want to get Bush out of here.
The only upside to Bush winning ofcourse will be that I can vote and campaign for Hilary Clinton in 2008

FatherTed

Bush will win. Either that or it will be a reverse of 2000, with Bush getting more votes but Kerry squeezing out a win in Florida.

Either way I'm not voting for Bush, Kerry or even Nader. It's the Greens or Libertarians for me this time round. This country needs a third party voice to arise. Nader is a doucebag who skrewed over the Greens in 2000 when it was all about just himself.

FatherTed

BEAT wrote:

Hilary Clinton in 2008

That will NEVER happen. She wont get the nomination.

BEAT

FatherTed wrote:

That will NEVER happen. She wont get the nomination.

we shall see, oh yes..we shall see

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

a woman president?
rofl

pete

FatherTed wrote:

Either way I'm not voting for Bush, Kerry or even Nader. It's the Greens or Libertarians for me this time round.

I am at a loss to understand how rational people could throw away a vote that might otherwise go some way to removing Bush.

There's a time and a place for protest voting and worrying about "third party voices", and this isn't it.

therecklessone

mycroft wrote:

According to the Independent there are 4,000 lawyers (2,000 Democrat, 2,000 republician) in the state of florida alone in case there are any Shenanigans. In total both parties have actually raised an army of 10,000 lawyers with the democrats having 9 private jets on standby in case there are shenanigans, and surely the republicans have the same or more.

[IMG]http://rock_6.tripod.com/barbrady.jpg[/IMG]

Yes, man you can't just go declaring shenanigans on innocent people, that's how wars get started!

I'm going for Kerry, by a whisker (and after some serious legal challenges)

SkepticOne

If all the lawyers are in Florida, won't they just hold the shenanigans in some other state?

Victor

I hope for Kerry, but I'm afraid that Bush might win.

One thing I thought today though was, whatever about the respective camps who will always vote one way or the other, it will be "middle America" that will decide the election. And while middle America is patriotic, it isn't stupid.

Mordeth wrote:

a woman president? rofl

Yes, we've had 2.

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

yeah, but our president has no actual power

a woman in the whitehouse with her finger on the button? one bad period and we're all ****ed!

embee

Mordeth wrote:

yeah, but our president has no actual power

a woman in the whitehouse with her finger on the button? one bad period and we're all ****ed!

Are you mad Mordeth?

Sure, look at Margaret Thatcher and all the wonderful things that happened unde........

I'll get me coat.

TomF

Of course Bush is going to be re-elected President of the United States. The only real question has to do with the size of his Electoral College win: will it be a landslide or only a big win?

I found a good article on the Los Angeles Times newspaper's site explaining why the U.S. Electoral College system is so good : http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-zycher27oct27,1,3839359.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions

Here is a paragraph from it. "Once a candidate determines that he will be able to win a plurality in a state, thus getting all the electoral college votes, there is no point in campaigning further in that state. The candidate is then driven (by the pressure of the market, so to speak) to develop plurality support in additional states. Thus are candidates forced to broaden their geographic bases; those whose support is heavily regionalized are penalized implicitly."

seamus

TomF wrote:

Of course Bush is going to be re-elected President of the United States.

A person can only be re-elected if he has been elected before. I think "elected" is a more apt term, seeing as he was "appointed" last time. I still think he won't win, but again there's a very good chance he'll force his way into office.


I'll stop trolling

FatherTed

pete wrote:

I am at a loss to understand how rational people could throw away a vote that might otherwise go some way to removing Bush.

There's a time and a place for protest voting and worrying about "third party voices", and this isn't it.

If I lived in one of the close states such as Ohio or Florida I'd be voting for Kerry. However in Connecticut where I live, he will win by about 15% so he doesnt need my single vote. However, this political system needs a good kick in the arse and maybe a third party could do that.

sovtek

FatherTed wrote:

If I lived in one of the close states such as Ohio or Florida I'd be voting for Kerry. However in Connecticut where I live, he will win by about 15% so he doesnt need my single vote. However, this political system needs a good kick in the arse and maybe a third party could do that.

And it was largely pressure from Nader that finally forced Kerry to say anything about Bush's stupidity in regards to Iraq...Who knows how long he would have let that go otherwise....as well as how much support he would have lost amongst the anti-war vote...which is significant.
So far Nader has predicted the polling trends spot on.

Sleepy

FatherTed wrote:

he doesnt need my single vote.

Tell that to Al Gore.

I'm gonna change my prediction on this. I think the only winner in this election can be the attorneys. Bush/Kerry may be appointed as present but either way it'll be a court appointment, not the direct result of an election.

FatherTed

Sleepy wrote:

Tell that to Al Gore.

Hang on, let me try this again....very slowly....


I.....live.....in.....Connecticut.....Kerry.....will.....win.....easily.....without......my......vote.

sovtek

FatherTed wrote:

If I lived in one of the close states such as Ohio or Florida I'd be voting for Kerry. However in Connecticut where I live, he will win by about 15% so he doesnt need my single vote. However, this political system needs a good kick in the arse and maybe a third party could do that.

I believe that you should vote for the person that actually represents you.
If every person I heard say "I like Nader but....ABB ABB ABB" then Nader would most definetly get more support than Kerry. The ABB tactic hasn't got a leg to stand on.