32-county Irish state - when?

luckat

Would have put up a poll, but I see that they're banned on the Politics forum (call no man free while his forum is in chains

So I'll just ask. Do you think there will be a 32-county Irish state:

By May 3 2016

By 2021

Sooner

2049

Never

By 2121

flogen

erm.... yes... at 5 o clock on 3 may 2016....

Who knows? I'd just like to see the IRA disband and the Stormont Government get going again, I'm sure it will happen, and I expect it in my lifetime, that being a good thing or a bad thing all depends on the situation at the time.

flogen

snorlax

so long as there's peace and they have there own goverment/ with everyone having a fair say/ uvf and ira gone and disbanded.

hopefully in my lifetime

RE*AC*TOR

not gonna happen anytime soon, with no constitutional claim and a fractitious political landscape in the north, I can't see it in my lifetime.

OfflerCrocGod

Hopefully not in my lifetime. I don't want to have to live in fear of bombs blowing me up while I'm in Dublin. Also the North is a very expensive security operation for the UK goverment to run, I vaguely remember a figure of a million sterling a day. I don't want that kind of a drain on our vibrant economy. Maybe the next generation - although the British goverment may want to dispose of NI before then

sceptre

As a moderator I should probably say more but all I'd like to say is "who ****ing cares". I'd prefer it if the "leaders" up north stopped acting like babies in want of a rattle and if their sheep did the same. Same recommendation could and should go for some of our own.

simu

Never, I'd say. I think it's more probable that Northern Ireland will become an independent country than it becoming part of the REpublic.

flogen

simu wrote:

Never, I'd say. I think it's more probable that Northern Ireland will become an independent country than it becoming part of the REpublic.

well a friend of mine figures that the likely step is to see the current setup except stormont answers to Dublin rather than london.... so a kind of home rule under Ireland.... certainly a possibility.

flogen

LegacyUser

simu wrote:

Never, I'd say. I think it's more probable that Northern Ireland will become an independent country than it becoming part of the REpublic.

It will snow gummi bears before that happens, NI is not a viable singular entity nor never will be

Johnny_the_fox

bananayoghurt wrote:

It will snow gummi bears before that happens, NI is not a viable singular entity nor never will be

your reason being?

mike65

sceptre wrote:

As a moderator I should probably say more but all I'd like to say is "who ****ing cares".

No thats about enough I'd say!

Mike.

A Dub in Glasgo

Yes I say and about time!

aidan_walsh

Personally, I also think there is a very slim chance of it ever happening... There are just far too many deep rooted feelings on both sides to let one country take absolute control one way or the other, as many years of paramilitarism have proven.

LegacyUser

Johnny_the_fox wrote:

your reason being?

well how about currently just to stay on its feet it needs billions of investment from britain, were it to go alone its economy is non existant,it has no natural nor human resources, it would receive no corporate investments due to political instability and tribal internecine butchery, it would piss itself down the hole it's currently staring into.

Victor

bananayoghurt wrote:

NI is not a viable singular entity nor never will be

Is Luxembourg a "viable singular entity"?

Johnny_the_fox

bananayoghurt wrote:

well how about currently just to stay on its feet it needs billions of investment from britain, were it to go alone its economy is non existant,it has no natural nor human resources, it would receive no corporate investments due to political instability and tribal internecine butchery, it would piss itself down the hole it's currently staring into.

And the South has the following then : natural/human resources and corporate investments...? i think not.

LegacyUser

Victor wrote:

Is Luxembourg a "viable singular entity"?

is luxembourg a country composed of people looking to make a life for themselves or a country split in half with no thoughts but for the hatred of the others

thejollyrodger

Never, I hope !!

Who realistically wants that lot up there in ?

luckat

flogen wrote:

well a friend of mine figures that the likely step is to see the current setup except stormont answers to Dublin rather than london.... so a kind of home rule under Ireland.... certainly a possibility.

flogen

Oh, I hope not! I'd hate to see Stormont answering to Dublin! If it happens, I hope it happens with north and south in respectful and equal co-operation.

LegacyUser

Johnny_the_fox wrote:

And the South has the following then : natural/human resources and corporate investments...? i think not.

we have human resources, an intelligent educated workforce in a stable country that can attract major companies to invest here (and start up our own ventures with the free time we have due to the fact we don't spend our whole lives hating),

If the north is so viable tell me why they have NEVER been anything but BILLIONS in deficit

GuanYin

luckat wrote:

Would have put up a poll, but I see that they're banned on the Politics forum (call no man free while his forum is in chains

So I'll just ask. Do you think there will be a 32-county Irish state:

By May 3 2016

By 2021

Sooner

2049

Never

By 2121

2024, according to Star Trek

mike65

Johnny_the_fox wrote:

And the South has the following then : natural/human resources and corporate investments...? i think not.

Well natural resources are thin on the ground but we dont lack readies-
http://www.finfacts.com/biz10/foreigndirectinvestmentireland.htm

Ireland is No. 7 of the top 20 countries worldwide for inward foreign investment in 2003 with the dollar value up at $25 billion, up marginally from 2003.

Mike.

luckat

ahem, actually I think the North is also having a resurgence at the moment, with lots of tech entrepreneurship and foreign corporate investment - and I get the impression that this is a time of unprecedented co-operation between northern and southern companies in hunting business abroad.

Moriarty

The best long term solution may show itself in as an EU federal state. NI (and wales and scotland, if they so wished) could organise themselves as seperate states under the EU flag and government.

I doubt we'll be seeing that this side of 2050 though.

simu

In the future, I imagine that most people in the North will just want to get on with their lives and find the sectarian confrontation thing to be increasingly irrelevant. This is already the case to a certain extent - what educated, intelligent young person who hasn't experienced discrimination in their own lifetime* will bother getting involved in aggressive loyalist/nationalist organisations?

I see that such organisations will, increasingly, be the realm of the poor and hopeless and of those thugish types who, in other countries, prefer to spend their time causing mayhem without political pretexts. Most countries seem to be happy to ignore the existence of an underclass as long as the comfortable majority feel safe and Northern Ireland will probably follow this model and, as long as they manage to keep gun possession and so on under control, the level of crime and violence there will be similar to other European countries and thus, the North will be able to attract/create businesses like anywhere else.

That's my guess, anyway.

As for those who say that Stormont will have to answer to Ireland rather than to Britain in the future, I must disagree. Unionists would not be happy answering to the Irish government, Nationalists wouldn't be happy because the 6 counties wouldn't be treated the same as the other 26 and I don't think any Irish government would want to take on the increased workload such a move would involve.

*with the exception of the odd rebellious youth going through a phase of trying to shock Mammy and Daddy

bonkey

Ireland will have 32 counties when we re-divide our existing 26 to add 6 new ones.

That will happen sooner than a united ireland, at any rate.

jc

Sleepy

Until NI can stand on it's own two feet, it'll never happen. It's both too risky for us southerners to contemplate and FAR to expensive for us to afford. I think Moriarty has it partly right. The only way we'll become united again is under the United States of Europe.

PH01

bonkey wrote:

Ireland will have 32 counties when we re-divide our existing 26 to add 6 new ones.

That will happen sooner than a united ireland, at any rate.

jc

Excellent idea. Cork, Kerry, Mayo and Donegal are too big. Split them up. And Dublin could be split into three - North, South and West.
There you go, 32 counties. That should put that '32 County Sovereignty Movement' out of business. Cool

But seriously, you'd have to say and believe that a United Ireland is possible. If you didn't the IRA would go back to killing protestants and setting us back another 25 years.
I believe we're moving towards a United Ireland. Now whether that will be a republic, a united kingdom or some kind of federal system (note: I'm using lowcase here) I don't know.
But what I do know is that as long as it's peaceful it will be a better place for all the peoples on this little island.

ionapaul

simu wrote:

...This is already the case to a certain extent - what educated, intelligent young person who hasn't experienced discrimination in their own lifetime* will bother getting involved in aggressive loyalist/nationalist organisations?

I see that such organisations will, increasingly, be the realm of the poor and hopeless and of those thugish types who, in other countries, prefer to spend their time causing mayhem without political pretexts.

Yes, I agree and would speculate that the VAST majority of supporters of either 'side' of the paramilitary situation are exactly as you have described, members of the poor and hopeless underclass. This has been the case throughout history, demagogues and 'rabble-rousers' have always been able to garner support and stir up trouble by appealing to the poor and hopeless - to the poor Catholics plant the dream that 'you are poor because of the Unionists, a United Ireland (socialist uptopia) will be the land of milk and honey', to the poor Unionists make them believe 'you may not have much, but your only hope is in a Protestant nation under the Queen's rule (though of course she doesn't really want you any more!), under the Catholics bishops in Dublin you would be a slave and your children will be driven out.'*

The awful truth of the matter is no matter what the political situation, United Ireland or not, the underclass who support the paramilitary organisations will almost certainly remain poor and hopeless - do you think Bertie et all, give a toss about a long-term unemployed man or women in West Belfast? Under a United Ireland they would be as poor as ever, probably worse off as the added costs force us to reduce social welfare spending (have to pay for a vastly increased military, after all).

Sorry for such pessimism on a Monday morning, but there you go. I personally don't think a United Ireland is on the cards just yet.

*same thing during the American Civil War - it was the poor, non-slaveholding whites of the South who did the fighting and dying to protect the institution of slavery, as they were led to believe that 'you may be poor, but owning slaves is the only way out of poverty for you, fight to retain this right for yourselves and your children!' Well, that was one reason why they fought.

Stabshauptmann

I do think Ireland should have as much say in the running of NI as Britian.

Imagine this system. Britain and Ireland each put a certain % of GDP into the running of NI. The government of NI has Stormont as the main house and the House of Commons and the Dail combinrd act as the upper house, each having equal say ie something is passed with the agreement of both.

Things go well for a while, the ppl of NI work together, old predudices start to dissappear. Paramilitries dissappear.

The power of the Council of Ireland increases.

Departments of tourism sport and the enviroment in NI and RoI merge. Its not a major dept and the fact that its hard to seperate these things anyway accross national boundries makes it seem natural.

Dept of transports merge to make the railways more effecient, rail works better when there are more tracks and stations. They need economies of scale.

Dept of Education and science merge north and south. The education systems in England and Ireland have moved so close that this move has little effects.

Dept of Health.

Eventually we end up with a lot of beurocracy and the council of Ireland is over worked so a referendum goes to the ppl weather or not to Unite the country.

So at this stage, there is intercommunity cooperation, trust is built, the advantages of working with the RoI have become clear and tangible. Britain makes its desire to off load NI clear. Ireland is united.

yes that is very simplistic and relies on a lot of assumptions (thats how Macroeconomic models are projected and they work well although far more complicated obviously) but thats the basic theory in my head. Thoughts?

Sleepy

Necromance, I could see that working if it was stretched out over the next century or two.

Problem is: will the average Irish taxpayer agree to pay Northern Ireland's way? I think not, we've become too individualistic a society for that to happen and to be honest if it was going to affect my tax by more than a few quid a month, I'd vote against it.

Stabshauptmann

With stability NI could pay its own way just as much as the RoI can, economics proves how it is easier for smaller geographical areas to turn their economies round faster than larger ones.

definitly it wouldnt happen in a generation. Ppl need to built trust, it would take a long time, in fact interest might be totally lost by the time the time is right...

jesus_thats_gre

Hopefully never. The majority of the people are totally different and it would cost us way to much..

qwertyphobia

I think the more interesting question is Why?

Gurgle

Assuming the north has an established accepted parliament and the IRA, UVF etc are disbanded (or at least relegated to historical societies) by 2010, then a generation or so later (say 30 years) re-union is likely to appear on the cards. That would make it 2040 or so, maybe earlier if the EU continues to grow in relevance at a local level.

pickarooney

Fingal for the All-Ireland!

spanner

jesus_thats_gre wrote:

Hopefully never. The majority of the people are totally different and it would cost us way to much..

that is what most people in the south and a porportion of nationlists in the north will say, that reunification will cost too much and it will cost, but not only in money but blood. the loyalists will never live with us weather we, changed our athiem and flag, and the british will not want to lord over the dog fight for long.
if when a majority of northerners want to join back with the south, and do this by violent means the south will rise as well. the south might seem dosile but as the old saying goes "scratch a irish person hard enough, you will find a violent republican"


unitied ireland=bosnia 1992-1994

luckat

Why is it assumed that it would have to happen through violence?

Many loyalists are looking for an Irish heritage - I've met loyalists who were learning Irish, learning about Irish history, which they hadn't been taught in school, learning about the archaeology of Ulster, and then of the other provinces - discovering the Presbyterian libertarian and nationalist tradition of Henry Joy McCracken, Wolfe Tone et al. Things are changing.

Cork

PH01 wrote:

Excellent idea. Cork, Kerry, Mayo and Donegal are too big. Split them up.

Cork is not too big.

The peoples republic will never be split. What do ye want? Civil War!!

Seriously, it is unfortunate that the troubles in NI happened. This is a factor that set the clock back regarding Irish unity.

I think, Unity will happen in a federal way.

We need a federal system of government with the abolishment of County and (God Help us) Town Councils.

DublinWriter

luckat wrote:

Many loyalists are looking for an Irish heritage - I've met loyalists who were learning Irish, learning about Irish history, which they hadn't been taught in school, learning about the archaeology of Ulster, and then of the other provinces - discovering the Presbyterian libertarian and nationalist tradition of Henry Joy McCracken, Wolfe Tone et al. Things are changing.

Well that is just basically the old 'Prods are just confused Irishmen' line that left-winger Republicans have been pushing for years. Unfortunately, the truth is a little more different than that...read Davy Irvine's biography.

In the meantime, some simple maths. ROI = 12,000 Gardi. NI = 20,000 PSNI plus 10,000 locally supporting members of the British Army. Do you think the ROI could economically afford that kind of level of Policing?

But you say, in a 32-county state all will be Nirvana and there won't be the need for those levels of police. 600.000 Loyalists may have a different idea and will take their struggle down south quick-sharpish.

To be honest, the question shouldn't be 'when', but 'why'. Apart from reasons of geographical neatness, why should we even bother thinking about a 32-county republic?

jesus_thats_gre

DublinWriter wrote:

read Davy Irvine's biography.

Good read it is too..

For anyone doubting that the North is basically a totally different country with totally different people, go to Lisburn..

Sand

Why would anyone want that god forsaken miserable dysfunctional society with its bitter hatreds and kulturkamps?

Maybe if a massive oil field was found under Belfast there might be some reason for the Republic to mire itself in a place where politics hasnt advanced since 1798, but until then it would be sheer madness.

omnicorp

luckat wrote:

Would have put up a poll, but I see that they're banned on the Politics forum (call no man free while his forum is in chains

So I'll just ask. Do you think there will be a 32-county Irish state:

Erm.. I got polls banned.
Don't ask how though.
And I don't want a 32 county state. More taxes etc... Terror moving to Dublin.

Capt'n Midnight

WRT to splitting 26 counties to get 32, Tipp already has a north and south riding, and there's Fingal, SDCC, DLR , And the Aran Islands seem to moved between Clare and Galway before so make them a county too..

OK the real reason why we won't have a united Island is the Unionists and it's simply a numbers game. Back in 1941 Dev was offered Norn Iron if he entered the war as an ally. He refused for the same reason the present leaders would refuse. The Unionists would have the balance of power as all the other parties would be roughly 50:50 eg: FF+PD+SF? vs. rest etc. Coalitions where small parties get to wag the dog can be good where they excersise a restraining influence on a larger extreme party (eg: in exactly the way the PD's don't). Where the small party is constantly threating stability to get it's own policies through may not be such a good idea.

marco murphy

In places the unionists are becoming extinct.Id say in 2016 area there will be unity.Its inevitable i think.

Lennoxschips

By 2020 we'll all be in a European superstate and nobody will care anymore.

That's my prediction.

marco murphy

What exactly do people mean ''superstate''

marco murphy

People will always care,look at history,generation after generation has stood up against the british in ireland.Iam sure republicans wont be gone in 2020

Lennoxschips

That's true, never underestimate the size of the collective chip on Irish shoulders.

marco murphy

Most top Leaders of the IRA have said they believe theyll see an armed resistance again.The ceasefire has happened before,and always there has been a phase afterwards,be it CIRA or whoever,therell probably be armed struggle again...

marco murphy

Or even....the south armagh brigade going on there own,i really wouldnt be suprised