A muse about odds...

DeVore

This is just a muse about odds and one particularly annoying comment I hear often... Theres no real point I just thought I'd write it

Theres something that people dont take into consideration. I hear a LOT of people say things like "his flush was better, I mean, 3 hearts on the board, two more in my hand, what are the odds that he'd have a better flush!".

You might be thinking to yourself "yeah DeV, you're the BIGGEST one of all!" but thats not true. (I'll complain about unlikely odds where its obviously a fluke or after all betting is over and the cards are on their backs.)

What I'm talking about is people not realising that there is a HUGE correlation between the number of people who saw the flop and the strength of your hand. For example, if the flop comes all hearts and I have none of them but I have two pair then if only one person was in before the flop I'll bet out heavy on it. If 6 people saw the flop I'll probably toss the hand to any raise unless I have the odds to draw to a house (it would have to be a minimum bet realisitically).

So what if 6 people saw the flop, one bets and 5 fold round to you. What I hear people say later on (on the river) is "I was heads up with a bloke and he had two hearts! What are the odds!"

I want to slap those people.

DeV.

Iago

I think this is true but it depends on what you're holding as well, I played a game last night where I had an AQ flush the A in the middle and the Q in my hand and was beaten by a player with a AK flush, there were three diamonds in middle and we both had two daimonds in our hand. You know I love the flush draws and find it hard to put down but if there's a reasonable bet into me and I'm carrying a low flush or two pair/trips when there's a flush available, the odds are I'm laying down the hand.

I think like everything else it depends on what you know about the player and your position on the table

DeVore

My specific point is that the more people who see the flop, the wider you cast your net for mutant/unlikely hands AFTER the flop.

If I hear another people complain that their AQ was "dogged" by a muppet with 5,2 when they let said muppet limp in on SB or BB because they wanted to "slow play" their AQ and the flop came A52 rainbow, I think I might cry a little.

People talk about "well we were 5-handed so I played looser". Yes, shorted handed play means you can loosen up BUT which would you play looser/more aggresively:
A 10-handed table where only 3 people called for the flop or a 5-handed table where everyone did.

DeV.

karlh

Personally Dev, i don't think it's possible to factor odds or probabilities into playing poker....you really just have to go with your gut instinct......

ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding

Iago

lol

Lafortezza

I know what you're saying that people shouldn't moan about other players having weird or unpredicatable card to beat your flush or You flop 2 pair and they have the straight with 63 in their hand or something,
but we've all had the occasion where some player has called our preflop raise with 84o and hit 2 pair to our TPTK, you want to scream "How can you call with that?"

The way I try to look at it is you have to consider the situation, blinds, stack sizes, and above all the type of player(s) that are involved after the flop.

Iago

In simplest terms, whenever you sit at a table of 9 players there is invariably one muppet, you like to think that you're not that muppet so that means someone else is..

as a result there will always be some calls that seem a tad foolish, as one of my mates is fond of saying "of course it was the right call, I won didn't I?" I play a lot of cards with him funnily enough!!

I try not to let it affect me, after all even a broken watch is right twice a day, but he only has to be wrong once and he's gone..that keeps me focused anyway.

Samba

but we've all had the occasion where some player has called our preflop raise with 84o and hit 2 pair to our TPTK, you want to scream "How can you call with that?"

Took in $300 yesterday in 4 hours but lost 100 in the space of two minutes just before i was about to log off, this was freaky and needless to say I did not get to sleep for quite some time


25/50 c. Blinds
At the exact same time on two tables i get dealt AA, Table 1. Load of limpers im BB, 4th guy raises $2, table folds to me, I promptly raise to $15.

He calls flop comes, J48 Rainbow, player 4 bets 5, so now i am thinking, AJ or JJ, so I flat call, turn brings a K...hmmmm danger, danger! He bets five again, so i call, river brings a 2h's, player goes all in. Now i should have raised this guy on the flop, I knew this and I should have folded my AA, im thinking he has KK,anyway after much thought i call rather stupidly i'll be the 1st to admit.

Yes, OH YES what a muppet holding J4o JACK FOUR OS a 15 Raise, this muppet probably would have followed me all in

So by the time that hand had ended and I was writing up notes on this player, i go to the other table with AA and i was SB and there were three callers for $2, so after what had just happened i was furious and i raised it $25 (will these muppets stop at nothing to try crack your AA, the answer is....) player UTG goes all in for 50, all other players fold.

Im thinking lovely, i'll make back what i lost in no time. Flop comes 944 Rainbow, im thinking hmmm, im rightly screwed if this idiot has 99, so turn brings 5s and the river 10c and much to my surprise my cards get mucked, Muppet
#1 turns over 94o.

HHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhh...sighs. The whole table went mad this guys argument was much the same as a similar discussion on a thread on this board........

MUPPETS, sorry, really needed to get that off my chest

That is Poker unfortunately, just gotta think long term with these idiots and going briefly on topic , you simply have to play the odds or be the luckiest man alive to win.

Marq

I decided to play at Pokerroom because I had heard from friends and from reviews that the competition was not as easy as on other sites. While patience is certainly rewarded at a sight like PartyPoker or PokerStars because when you do hold the nuts, there's a good chance some muppet is calling all the way to the river with you, I much prefer slightly stiffer opposition who (for the most part) will only play decent hands and can lay down their semi-decent hands to a bluff (idiots, har har har). I'll play against slightly better players to avoid people putting me all in with 94o. I know that this is good for me in the long run but I just find it far too frustrating when I lose having done nothing wrong.

Marq

DeVore wrote:

"I was heads up with a bloke and he had two hearts! What are the odds!"

17-1, just over 4-1 that he has any two suited cards. You're right, people are stupid. brings up an interesting question to my mind though.

What do you do when you flop a flush? particularly if you have something like 8-4 of spades in the big blind and the flop comes all spades. Obviously you're most likely to be ahead in this situation, with perhaps someone drawing to the Ace High or King High flush. I was playing last night and completed the small blind with q-9s and hit my flush on the flop. I checked from the BB, hoping for someone to raise to knock other players out. I figure that if someone is betting in these situations they usually bet big to scare off the one card flush draws, and you can then reraise if people have come along with the original raiser or flat call if you're the only two left in the pot. You're hoping that he's raising on top pair or something of similar strength and you have him locked up.

BTW, in tournaments, I almost always bet out in this situation, as the intention is to win chips with as little risk of busting out as possible. In cash games I'm prepared to risk giving a free card because I believe the value I can get from the number of times that the check-raise / check-call play is worth the risk of losing a couple of hands to four-flushes that get in cheap.

How do other people play a flopped flush from the blinds, or from any other position? Do you vary your play in ring games compared to tournaments?

Hectorjelly

Marq wrote:

I'll play against slightly better players to avoid people putting me all in with 94o. I know that this is good for me in the long run but I just find it far too frustrating when I lose having done nothing wrong.

People putting you all in when you have AA and they have 94 are good for you in the short, medium & long term.

dirkey_wynne

Samba wrote:

Yes, OH YES what a muppet holding J4o JACK FOUR OS a 15 Raise, this muppet probably would have followed me all in

Samba, I feel your pain. i got busted out by that exact same hand before. AA, put in a big raise as was sick of AA being busted by s*ite. J4 o comes in with me, and oh yes flop contained 444. needless to say I didn't think any hand would be in with me which contained a 4, not even A4 s, as the raise I had put in pre flop was just far too big. But there's always one...

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

Took in $300 yesterday in 4 hours but lost 100 in the space of two minutes just before i was about to log off, this was freaky and needless to say I did not get to sleep for quite some time

I think it really is essential to take a long term view if your playing poker seriously, as there will be plenty of times when you lose unfairly. You need to be able to handle this well or it could impact on your well being. Also, I think that somebody who is afraid to take risks loses a lot of equity over somebody who is not afraid to gamble. This is why its never a good idea to play with scared money, ie money you cant afford to lose.

I lost a 2k$ hand recently to a player with 1 out, I thought about it for a while and decided that if I could take that well, I could take any beat well. So I smiled. A few weeks later I won a tournament with a runner runner straight (I posted it here). I took that well as well!

Marq

Hectorjelly wrote:

People putting you all in when you have AA and they have 94 are good for you in the short, medium & long term.

Hectorjelly's Poker 101 school - taking bookings now.
Lesson one: Two aces is a good starting hand.
Lesson two: Hectorjelly is good at poker, you're not.

I do accept your point, I think it boils down to two things - domination and frustration. It frustrates me to play against bad players whether I'm winning or losing, but in the situation you mention (where I have the aces, I was originally referring to all the situations where some fúcker moves in on me with 94o, 220 out of 221 times I'm not going to have the bullets) I much prefer somebody calling my raise with a good hand such as ace-king, ace-queen, as I'm more likely to have them dominated.

Hectorjelly

Marq wrote:

Hectorjelly's Poker 101 school - taking bookings now.
Lesson one: Two aces is a good starting hand.
Lesson two: Hectorjelly is good at poker, you're not.

Im not sure how you can infer the second lesson from my comment. I charge for lessons 3 - 29 btw.

Samba

Ahh i know Hector, it's always about the long run, simply had to get those bad beats off my chest

Losing the money does not bother me in any way whatsoever, it's being muppeted that really ticks me off.

If it was a 50k Pot it would be a different story

DeVore

I think my point got lost along the way as I havent seen anyone comment on it
I'll have another go tomorrow at explaining myself more clearly.

DeV.

Samba

that was probably my fault, sorry about that.

Do see your point, the wider the range of cards being played widens the prospects of more and better hands, people tend to get blinded by big hands and in the end act with less thought as in their mind they are clear winners and as a result the big plunge into dissapointment sets in, sparking off OMG what are the odds and many more mindless comments.


As you say, back of the hand is in order.

I've seen so many players tilt after being beaten by bigger flushes.

DeVore

My basic (and really rather obvious) point is that you need to think about how many people saw the flop EVEN if its folded to you and one other bloke. For example if there was only one person and you preflop then the odds of him having 2 hearts are 17:1 (according to Marq, who I have no reason to doubt).
However if 5 people saw the flop then the odds that the single bloke who calls your bet post flop has hearts IS AN AWFUL LOT HIGHER. Most players instinctively know this but some/many seem to have forgotten that they let 5 people see the flop
by the time the turn card or the river comes. The odds in that particular case are closer to 5:17 that he may have two hearts (its a little shorter then that I think).

This piece was sparked by a lad who told me he rarely raises preflop, which is just nuts imho.

DeV.

Hectorjelly

Here is a hand that explains what you were saying Tom, this was a few days ago, playing 1 2 nl on VC. I was on the big blind with 7 8s. I had about 300$ which was slightly more than the rest of the table. The button had$.250 Virtually the whole table limped in for 2 and the button made it 10. Normally Id fold here but I knew if Id call so would most of the rest of the table (Think of theVALUE!!!). So almost the entire table called making a $80 pot. The flop came up A K 5 rainbow. Great I thought and hit check fold. It was checked round to the button who checked also. Next card is a 9 completing the rainbow. Everybody checks again to the button who thinks for a while and bets 20$. Now this was suspicous, as everybody had checked to him again asking him to take the pot, in this case most players will bet the pot, or half the pot, and expect to take the hand down. So I called the $20 as did two others. The river brought a beautifull 6 giving me the stone cold nuts. It was checked around to the button who bet 100$. I pushed all in and got called by a shortstack in mp and the button. The button had AA for a flopped set, as did the shortstack with 55. Any raise on the flop would of pushed me out, as would a decent bet on the turn. (As it was I was getting 10 to 1 on my call which was about 11 to 1, but the implied odds more than made up for that)

Now if you raise preflop and get 1 or 2 callers and manage to hit a set, theres little harm in checking the flop and letting them catch up a little. But the more players that see the flop, the more chance there is of being outdrawn by some ridiculous runner runner miracle draw. Which isnt really that miraculous when you add up the outs that the other players may have.

DeVore

Bingo. Though they compounded the error by checking and letting you in cheap.
If the guy with aces didnt raise (CRIMINAL OFFENCE) and the flop came AJT with two of a suit, he's got 7 other people who could have a straight, flush draw, two pair drawing for a house etc etc. Now he doesnt know where he is, he could be walking into a made straight and its hard to lose the flush drawer too. Just about any high card or suited card is a scare card too.
If he'd let just 2 people see the flop he'd be a lot more confident about pushing all in to take the pot down there and then.

The strength of a hand post flop is SIZEABLY determined by the number of people who got to see that flop.

As an aside, I played the cash game in the Fitz last night (first time I played sober) and made the cash I lost on the two previous drunken escapades back. What amazed me was that almost noone backs off pre-flop. I lost count the number of times one euro was called all the way round only for a blind to make it 3 euro and it was called all the way around again. Even in the Holdem it was hard to get people out preflop.
Mid pairs become almost worthless unless they hit or you get some mutant low flop without flushes or straight drawers...

DeV.

Samba

Now if you raise preflop and get 1 or 2 callers and manage to hit a set, theres little harm in checking the flop and letting them catch up a little. But the more players that see the flop, the more chance there is of being outdrawn by some ridiculous runner runner miracle draw.

There is no shaking Kermit and Ms. Piggy!! Only last night was a great example of this.




Dealt QQ UTG, raise to 12 i get three callers, gulp.

Flop comes AQ6 Rainbow blinds are gone, first to act, bet 20, three of them call, more gulps (im facing AA here) turn brings 2h's, at this stage im ready to take my chances that none of them have the Bullet set, all in for another 40. The Three of them call.

I was dreading the river and rightfully so along came a 10, cards mucked, caller one shows AQ, caller two shows AK, caller three shows JK....


I believe this lad you refer to Tom is me, what I said in another thread was based on my Cash Game play, completly different to Tourny, hell in a tourney i'll be tempted to go all in as there is the pressure of increasing blinds, that however is not a factor in a cash game.

I hate AK, AQ in cash games and therefore do not raise them, I understand the risks perfectly and how the odds change with more people still in play, there is a simple solution, put the cards down only flat call small bets and wait for the nutz to make your move, hell time is your friend in a cash game, you have as much of it as you like providing you still have chips.


Personally when i play 4 tables for 3 hours, i encounter about 7 Perfect opportunities, such as the one Hector Mentioned, where you are the clear winner and no one can beat you.

I tend to wait for these moments rather than get all excited over AK

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

I tend to wait for these moments rather than get all excited over AK

There is a mathematical reason as to why AK is a great hand in a tournament, but not so good in a normal cash game.

The larger your stack is in relation to the blinds, the better a hand you can wait for before you commit your entire stack. If the blinds are very big, then you cant afford to wait for very long. Hence it can sometimes become correct to go all in utg with A5.

In most tournaments you are unlikely to have more than 20 or 30 Bbs. This is the perfect amound to go all in on a one pair hand. Ie AK preflop or AA post flop.

However if you have more than around 50 bbs you really dont want to be going all in on a one pair hand (post flop, obviously you want to go all in preflop with AA no matter what the situation), as you will only be called (by a good player) by a hand that beats you. (All others should fold)

AK is fundamentally a one pair hand, its great at making top pair top kicker, and not much else. I think you wouldnt be passing up much value if you folded AK preflop in cash games.

bohsman

Sambe what site do you play on? dont tell us if you dont want, the plo on betfair used to be really loose but then people found out an its now a very tight game

Samba

Ladbrokes, VC, and 365 althought less and less on 365 as when it started it was like a fishing in a trout farm, now the swedes have invaded the place and needless to say its tightented up a fair bit.