End of Season thoughts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool ...

redspider

Following on from another thread (A look back as the Final day arrives) and other end-of-season threads (Man U in decline, etc). Here are my key thoughts and end-of-season report (see link):

+ Congratulations to Arsenal for winning the league in an emphatic and largely entertaining style and for going unbeaten for the full 38-games. For many it was a near-perfect Arsenal season. However, they did have their slip-ups which cost them dearly in arguably the more important CL competition. Europe must be Arsenal’s target more than ever. A draw in the modern era is two-thirds of a loss so hence Arsenal’s final tally of 12 draws is quite high and is equivalent to losing 8 games – not exactly an impeccable record! This factor resulted in Arsenal failing to beat Man U’s record of 91 pts set in that the 2000 season - so Arsenal still have a few more records to aim for including a CL title.

+ Chelsea won the battle for 2nd, although as battles go this is a mute one as it is immaterial to both clubs (both teams should have no problem getting past a CL qualification round and teams should already be back in full swing by then). The money difference is immaterial to those clubs as well. Its good to see Chelsea up there in principal, as it splits the “duoploy” dominance of Arsenal and Man U, but as it was based on a “dirty money source” – perhaps its not so good for the game.

+ The big battle after the title race was the race for 4th. It was nip and tuck until the end more or less, and with all teams spluttering to perform it took a small run of form for Liverpool to take it. Indeed, Liverpool are lucky to have got 4th as there was no real challenge from another club and their tally of 60 pts is the lowest for 4th place in at least for 10 years. Liverpool got –4 pts less than last season when they finished 5th.

+ A comparison with 2 seasons before is interesting. At the top are Chelsea and Bolton. Arsenal are a surprising low +3 points ahead of where they were, so whilst this season may seem to have been immense for Arsenal - perceptions are that they were way ahead of everyone else - in practice +3 pts is neither here nor there and is well within elements of chance. Man U are just slightly below what they were so talks of a team in demise is not exactly true. The teams that are having problems though are Newcastle, Liverpool and Leeds, the latter being so problematic that they ended up relegated. The drop by Liverpool though is a massive -20 pts. (see graph in the report)

+ Liverpool had the most number of attempts on goal at 509 - over 60 ahead of Arsenal and nearly 90 ahead of Man Utd. Out of those attempts, 219 were on-target (43%), which is normal – all teams seem to get between 40-50% of their attempts on target. Arsenal had 222 attempts on target (50%). Leeds only had 136 on-target (42%). However, for Liverpool they only converted 10.8% of attempts into goals compared with Arsenals 16.4%, and only 25.1% of their on-targets into goals (only Wolves were worse), compared with Arsenal’s 32.9%. Both Man U and Chelsea had the best strike rates at 33.3%. Although you can gather stats forever and statistics can be used and abused, these figures fit some telling facts. Although Liverpool created reasonable positions for goal scoring, they squandered more chances than most. This affirms what was seen on the pitch with many missed opportunities from the likes of Owen, Heskey and even Kewell. These attempts weren’t squandered with wides but were saved by a Goalie or defender, and on far too many occasions, Liverpool strikers couldn’t put the ball in the net. Also, many chances were half-chances at best. In terms of Arsenal, they created a lot of chances too and took many attempts at goal where none really existed, particularly Henry. We will see more of this when we examine the individual striker rates. But Arsenal were converting attempts and on-targets into goals at a much better rate.

+ Many people have talked about the demise of Roy Keane. Yet if his key task is to be the main passer of the Man U team, and he manages to do that and execute 87% of all his passes accurately with only 264 passes mislaid, then he clearly has delivered. He is well ahead of Stevie Gerard’s accuracy, although it can be argued that Gerrard takes more risks with his passes.

+ Henry is way out ahead in terms of goals scored with 30. Shearer was closest to him all season, which is amazing considering his playing style and age. Owen only got 16 goals. What is amazing about Henry is the number of attempts he makes on goal, many of them from very difficult positions. His goal conversion ratio is very poor at 18%, but he has attempted as many as Shearer and v.Nistelrooy put together! Henry is not afraid of failing to score – he’s had 137 misses in the league alone this season and he is not phased by it! The two top scorers at Chelsea were Hasselbaink and Lampard(!) - not new purchases.

+ Arsenal were clearly the come-back kings of this season, managing to overturn 6 of the matches in which they went a goal down and turning the other 3 into draws. Chelsea were next best, only going behind in a mere 7 games and winning 2 of those. Surprisingly Newcastle did ok, converting 3 of the 14 matches they went behind in into victories. Liverpool only converted 2 of their 12 matches, but a surprise was Man U who went on to lose 9 of the 12 matches they went behind in. Man U took most advantage of scoring first, perhaps aided by opposition’s giving up the chase. Arsenal drew a high number at 5 of 25 and Chelsea went on to lose 4 out of their 27.

+ Liverpool’s achilles heel was their home form - losing 5 matches at home was just 1 away from Leicester’s 6 and their wins (10) and draws (4) matched that of Portsmouth. Their away form wasn’t special at 6-8-5 being similar to that of Charlton and Bolton, but enough to give them an 8-pt advantage over Newcastle who had a 2-12-5. Away form was the achilles heel for Newcastle.

What are your opinions?

-redspider

eirebhoy

The report looks good, I haven't got time to read it all but I'll definitely get through it tomight. Well done. BTW, when you are comparing players stats you list them by the amount of tackles/passes/saves they make, do you have it in order of accuracy rate by any chance?

Cheers.

The Rooster

Although Liverpool created reasonable positions for goal scoring, they squandered more chances than most.

My belief is the reason for this is that Liverpool players rarely pass when they get close to goal. Most of the time a Liverpool player will shoot from a difficult angle rather than pass to a player in a better position. Too many players playing for themselves rather than the team. Arsenal and ManU rarely have this problem.

An interesting stat I saw back in Jan/Feb (I wonder would you have this somewhere redspider) was an analysis of the league goals scored by Henry, RvN, Shearer and Owen broken down between inside the 6 yard box, between the 6 yard box and the rest of the box and outside the box. At that time the first 3 all had a good proportion of goals scored in the 6 yard box - Owen had NONE. Not one! I can't remember how many league goals he'd scored by then, but it was about 10.

I think that illustrates how few tap-ins are created for Owen compared to the rest of the top strikers. Though it has to be said, in the last few games Stevie G did his very best to change that and was creating chance after chance for Owen and the others.

eirebhoy

Originally posted by The Rooster
An interesting stat I saw back in Jan/Feb (I wonder would you have this somewhere redspider) was an analysis of the league goals scored by Henry, RvN, Shearer and Owen broken down between inside the 6 yard box, between the 6 yard box and the rest of the box and outside the box.

Henry
Left 6 Yard: 3
Right 6 Yard: 0
Left Channel: 4
Right Channel: 1
Left Wing: 0
Right Wing: 0
Left Byline: 0
Right Byline: 0
Left Penalty Area: 3
Right Penalty Area: 2
Centre Penalty Area: 10
Penalty Spot: 7
Own Half: 0

Shearer
Left 6 Yard: 2
Right 6 Yard: 2
Left Channel: 1
Right Channel: 0
Left Wing: 0
Right Wing: 0
Left Byline: 0
Right Byline: 0
Left Penalty Area: 3
Right Penalty Area: 4
Centre Penalty Area: 3
Penalty Spot: 7
Own Half: 0

Van Nistelrooy
Left 6 Yard: 4
Right 6 Yard: 4
Left Channel: 0
Right Channel: 0
Left Wing: 0
Right Wing: 0
Left Byline: 0
Right Byline: 0
Left Penalty Area: 0
Right Penalty Area: 3
Centre Penalty Area: 8
Penalty Spot: 1
Own Half: 0

Owen
Left 6 Yard: 1
Right 6 Yard: 0
Left Channel: 0
Right Channel: 0
Left Wing: 0
Right Wing: 0
Left Byline: 0
Right Byline: 0
Left Penalty Area: 4
Right Penalty Area: 1
Centre Penalty Area: 6
Penalty Spot: 4
Own Half: 0

http://stats.premierleague.com

redspider

Thats an interesting statistic site which I didn't know about. I compared some data with the opta stats and I spotted differences quickly, so there may be lots. eg: the number of attempts at goal by Henry:

opta: 167
stats.premierleague.com: 104

I have a feeling that opta is more accurate as it also is responsible for delivering stats to the clubs themselves. However, like all stats, it can depend on who is doing the counting and perhaps this is just that. The other stats on the site may be accurate. I also see that in some stats they discount penalties as goals which is good. When Henry's 7/7 peno's are taken away he looks much more ordinary with 23 goals. Shearer also got 7 from the penalty which reduces him to a 16 but Nistelrooy only got one (missed 3)!

The stats site also does something unusual by listing the top scorers using a shots/goal calculation. This is the converse of accuracy which should be goals/shot.

In terms of where strikers get their goals from on the pitch, this is interesting, It would be useful if they graphed a heat map for each player. Ruud vN has got 8 from within 6 yards – he’s a real poacher. Its unclear where exactly all the positions are on the pitch, but the only striker that scores in the channels is Henry which I guess is just to the outside of the box and matches his style of collecting the ball wide and running in at an angle. The only way to nullify Henry’s attack is to defend deep from the 18-yard line ie: don’t allow Arsenal the chance to run at you.


To eirebhoy: I dont have full listings of the opta stats, but just re-sorting the ones I have available produces:

Goalkeepers Saves Saves/shots Missed
A Niemi South 126 79% 33
vd Sar Fulham 155 78% 44
D Kiely Charlton 143 75% 48
K Keller Tott 140 71% 57
I Walker Leicester 130 68% 61


Tacklers Team Tackles Success rate Missed
M Volz Fulham 188 80% 38
S Parker Chelsea 176 79% 37
G Boateng Mid 186 76% 45
S Legwinski Fulham 163 72% 46
A Rae Wolves 163 72% 46


Passers Team passes Accuracy Missed
R Keane Man Utd 1767 87% 264
P Vieira Arsenal 1874 82% 411
F Lampard Chelsea 2135 78% 602
S Gerrard Liverpool 1955 77% 584
G Speed Newcastle 1752 77% 523

Scorers Team Goals Goals/Att Att Misses
A Shearer New 22 26% 85 63
Nistelrooy Man U 20 24% 83 63
M Forssell Brum 17 23% 74 57
L Saha Man Utd 20 21% 95 75
T Henry Arsenal 30 18% 167 137


These players are the most relevant. For example, you may get stats that show a player came on as a sub in one match, only had one shot at goal and scored, thereby getting a 100% record. But clearly not playing a significant number of games: lies, damn lies and statistics as they say ....


In terms of where Liverpool's attack breaks down, this has been analysed by many. For some, it breaks down before they even get near the danger area by allowing the opposing defense/midfield to reshape. I agree that they are not good at passing in the final “phase” and Stevie G has really carried the team this year. Owen has been off form on many occasions and Baros was injured for a long while and hasn't been given a chance on his return. New tactics are needed which is why I'm still calling for a change with Houllier if Liverpool want to aim for more than what they've achieved in recent years.

SCULLY

An interesting report (especially Liverpool having 4 points less than last year and still getting 4th - shows that the premiership is poor).

Re: the comment on Chelsea's position been built on 'dirty money source' - perhaps a link or 2 from the poster is in order to back this up?

redspider

Just as a follow-up to those stats, I looked again at that http://stats site. The shots they are counting are attempts on target. That may explain the discrepancy with opta. However, its not a good metric to use as attempts that go wide are equally as important.

There is something else I spotted when looking at some of their data which fits a hypothesis I’ve been putting forward this season. That is that a key player for Arsenal is Pires, without whom the team nor Henry would function nearly as well. This was borne out during their campaign when he was missing. Pires is remarkable for many feats but is the unsung hero when it comes to scoring. Not only has he scored 14 goals, none of them from the penalty spot, but he has only taken 29 shots on target to do so. Looking at the other top strikers in a similar fashion produces a table like this:





Player attempts on target goals (not pens) scoring rate
Pires 29 14 48%
Crespo 21 10 48%
Ferdinand 30 12 40%
Bent 25 9 36%
Nistelrooy 55 19 35%
Forssell 48 16 33%
Boa Morte 29 9 31%
Nemeth 29 9 31%
Hasselbaink 33 10 30%
Cole 38 11 29%
Angel 49 14 29%
Yakubu 50 14 28%
Keane 43 11 26%
Shearer 59 15 25%
Owen 48 12 25%
Phillips 54 13 24%
Henry 104 23 22%
Anelka 59 13 22%
Beattie 60 13 22%
Saha 57 11 19%

Interesting to see how far down that table Henry and Owen are but also how way ahead Pires is compared with say v.Nistelrooy. But as I said, these stats dont include shots that go wide. Henry had it would seem 63 wides but no doubt
many were from difficult positions.

SCULLY

Originally posted by redspider

+ Chelsea won the battle for 2nd, although as battles go this is a mute one as it is immaterial to both clubs (both teams should have no problem getting past a CL qualification round and teams should already be back in full swing by then). The money difference is immaterial to those clubs as well. Its good to see Chelsea up there in principal, as it splits the “duoploy” dominance of Arsenal and Man U, but as it was based on a “dirty money source” – perhaps its not so good for the game.

I was just wodering if you had managed to find the links to the 'dirty money source' yet?

Cheers

redspider

The reason why Abramovich' source of money is "dirty" is well known.
Essentially, state assets were "sold" very cheaply to ten or so
Russians that are now known as the Oligarch's. They have links
to the KGB and provided "services" to Yeltsin during the coup
and after. Their background and source of original wealth is
very very dodgy. You will notice that no English politicians
are seen anywhere near him.

Here are some links:

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=39275
http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1212245,00.html
http://www.northstarcompass.org/nsc0307/newssu.htm
http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-3-56-1409.jsp


Some detailed searching on google will probably turn up a lot more.
If you discuss him with any Russian you will soon realise how
unpopular he is and why - ie: they will say he is a thief

Dont be surprised if Abramovich gets arrested and is involved
in an unfortunate plane/helicopter "accident" some day. It may
take a new Russian Premier to do it though ......

Dewey

I think this Premiership has been very poor. From about the end of October the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, were sealed. and from the end of january it was Arsenal running away with the title and Chelsea and Man U for Second spot. And its hard to belive the lack of teams wanting 4th spot. I know the likes of Charlton, Fulham, Birmingham, Villa would of given there right arm for it but it was like all the teams sliped up on the same week and no one wanted it. Newcastle and Liverpool got of to a HORRIABLE start and were out of the title race for Oct.

Also the amount of poor matches Sky showed. i know sky doesnt know when a great match is going to come along but it was poor football this season from a few clubs unlike last season were there were loads of great matches.

I think next season will be one of the best Premiership seasons ever. Chelsea will buy more top players and Man U will also buy and will be looking to win the title while Arsenal will want to win back to back titles for the first time ever. And it will be interesting to see If Liverpool and Newcastle buy big to TRY and get into the top 3.

redspider

Originally posted by SCULLY
I was just wodering if you had managed to find the links to the 'dirty money source' yet?

Cheers

Did you get a chance to read them yet? What do you think of his and Chelsea's source of money now?

SCULLY

Indeed I did read them - the extract that follows is taken from the guardian link that you potsted :

'In fact, little of substance is known about Abramovich's wealth other than that he is one of 23 Russian entrepreneurs who took advantage of the privatisation of Russia's state assets in the mid-1990s'.

Your post also stated "You will notice that no English politicians
are seen anywhere near him." Yeah - not necessarily a bad thing!