"Are you ahead or behind?"

Lafortezza

I was chatting to an old English guy on Monday night, he had been over for the Irish Open. He had entered the big one €1500 buy-in on Saturday and one or two other tournaments, but while he didn't place in them he had broken even on cash games and was fairly happy with his weekend.

He was asking me about how long I'd played for and what level I was playing at and so on. Then he asked me "How do you play?".
I asked him what he meant, and he said "Do you play by the numbers and odds, do you read the players, do you look at your outs, do you go by your gut feeling?"

I told him that I keep an eye on the players around me and try to figure out what they have, trying to narrow it down by if/how they bet or whatever. He nodded and then said that he hadn't a clue himself about odds, or outs or anything like that.
"I always ask myself if I'm ahead or not" I nodded and finished my smoke and went back inside.
Thinking about it later I thought that its a very simple way if figuring out what to do in a tricky situation. If you've got AK and raise pre-flop, you get one hesitant caller. You think he might have a medium pair or KJ or something slightly marginal.
The flop comes QJx, are you ahead? You've got two overcards, you need one card to the nut straight. Your opponent bets...

When I was playing in the €20 rebuy last night, when I was calling preflop and when the flop was shown, I found myself thinking am I ahead?
It helps you to put your opponents on a hand, when you think, my two small pair, am I ahead of him with his (likely) top pair, good kicker? Whats the likelyhood that I'll still be ahead after the turn and river? Should I slowplay a little? Should I kill the pot right now if he's drawing to a flush or a straight?

Later last night when we were down to a 5 man table before the last table was formed, I found myself asking myself a few questions..
1) Am I ahead right now with this hand and these opponents?
2) If I'm ahead, how far ahead am I?? Does he have many outs? If he hits his outs is he going to be miles ahead or do I have a chance to draw to a better hand?
3) If I'm behind, depending if he checks or bets, how much will it cost me to see the turn card? the river card?
4) If I've the 2nd best hand right now, is there a chance that I can make him fold by raising? How much would I have to risk on that raise?
5) If I think I'm way ahead (by flopping top and middle pair say) can I bet for value and keep my opponents in the pot? How likely is it that they might out draw me?

I definitely helped me last night when I asked myself these questions, I found that I was nearly always sure I was making the right decisions.
And that old guy asked me if I wanted to buy a ticket to the WSOP, he had two and wanted to sell one. He won them both by entering satellites in the UK.
€8000, a bargain if ever there was one!

henbane

Most of these questions are based on odds and outs. You just don't think about them explicitly. Anybody with a little experience & practice should be able to understand these numbers without thinking directly about them.

Originally posted by lafortezza
1) Am I ahead right now with this hand and these opponents?

This is a gut feeling. Based on what opponents have done before (reading people) and how the hand has played out so far. You should never dismiss the fact that people are unpredictable but patterns in everybody's play (at our level) should give good indicators.

2) If I'm ahead, how far ahead am I?? Does he have many outs? If he hits his outs is he going to be miles ahead or do I have a chance to draw to a better hand?

This is question of outs and odds again. You do know how to kill pot odds on a drawing hand when you think that you may need to take the pot now. That's a matter of simple arithmetic - at this stage your head does it for you without thinking about it.

3) If I'm behind, depending if he checks or bets, how much will it cost me to see the turn card? the river card?

Again, you're thinking about outs and odds. You need to know your own outs. You need to take the current pot odds against the implied odds of what you can make if you do hit your hand and your opponent continues to bet out.

4) If I've the 2nd best hand right now, is there a chance that I can make him fold by raising? How much would I have to risk on that raise?

This is to do with reading of your opponent on previous play as well as the necessary raise to convince him he's behind and it's not worth drawing to better. If you don't understand his possible outs and the pot odds that gives him, you'll just end up raising arbitrarily rather than calculating the correct risk vs value to take the pot then or later. A measured raise is often better than throwing chips at the pot.

5) If I think I'm way ahead (by flopping top and middle pair say) can I bet for value and keep my opponents in the pot? How likely is it that they might out draw me?

You look at the board and determine what he could have and how likely it is that he could draw to a better hand - open-ended straight, set, flush draw all have certain outs and you must know them and the pot odds they cause to know how to kill the hand or how to get more bets from your opponent if he's drawing to a hand he is unlikely to make e.g. inside straight draw or runner runner cards to make a better hand than yours.

I just reckon anyone who spends some time playing the game and wants to get better should have learned these things even if they have not studied them. Not doing explicit calculations does not mean the information is not considered before the decision is made.

mewso

And you didnt buy a ticket?

Sklanskys books had alot of stuff about deciding if you are ahead (have the best of it). I'm sure we have experienced at least once floping 4 of a kind and how you immediately try to figure out how to make the most money out of it. You have the nuts. A great feeling.
Most of the time though we don't have the nuts. We might have top pair, a draw, an overpair in the hole. If you see the flop then ask yourself a few questions.

What would be the nuts?
What is the liklihood that my opponent has the nuts?
What is the liklihood that he has me beaten? or Am I ahead?

For example: Latter stages of a tournament. Blinds very large. You call the BB with As9c. BB very low on chips checks. No other players. Flop Ah5h6c. Your opponent bets all-in.

The possible nuts at this point are 3 Aces - 9 times out of ten in this situation your opponent does not have 2 Aces. If he has fair play to him. I'd be willing to assume that he doesn't and play accordingly. So assumption is that 3 Aces is not the nuts.

Next up are a set of 5s or 6s. Possible but I would expect this opponent to have been all-in pre-flop with a pocket pair against a limper.

The most likely hand he has is 56 or a flush draw. I'm discounting Ax because again he could well go all-in with that.

Odds are I'm behind. If the price is to high I fold. If the price won't damage me too much I call. I could well find him bluffing or he might not hit his flush draw etc.

I made that example up on the spot so if it's crap I apologize. Just trying to demonstrate the thought process.

Hyzepher

The one thing about Pot Odds and Implied Odds is that they work better in a Limit game where you already know the bets for each round. In a No Limit game the All-in is a very powerful play and really negates the benefits of knowing pot odds etc - for the simple reason that you lose and you're out.

Pot odds is really an advantage in a cash game where odds tend to even out over a long period of time - in a tournie you may be out before that happens

Hyzepher

Hyzepher

Actually as I re-read Lukes post I realise that I ask myself that question too much and actually tend to put others on the best hand too much - playing tight x2 if you like - playing tight myself and playing them tight as well.

Need to loosen up.

Loosen up I say! - damn voices in my head! No he cant have 5 Aces - cant I tell ya.

Actually that remainds me of some hands online the other day - over a 5 or 6 hand period I got 3 nut strights only to be beaten by quads everytime - the other players on the table even commented on it - didn't give me any money back though. No worries as they al went home crying in the end.

Actually last night I got my first real experience of a bad loser. I had Ac8c in BB. He raised 2xBlind preflop - I call thinking I'm in for half anyway - no other players. The flop comes down 666 - he bets 4x blind - I call. I put him on an Ace and was a bit worried about my kicker. Turn gives a Qh - he bets out 4x blind - I call. My fear of weak kicker is gone but now I am putting him on a pair - if he had bet more or the turn wasn't a high card I would of folded. River brings an 8 - he beats 10x Blind - I am still worried about a pair higher than my 8 but there is no way I'm folding a boat at this stage. He turns over AJo and goes balistic and my play. The pot was for about $300 so he was pissed off - I tried to show him my thought process and mentioned that maybe he played it wrong post-flop. Anyway - loads of cursing passes and I eventually take the rest of his money with an Ace high a few hands later - he was on major tilt and just wanted to bluff me out - I think he has 74o or something - I had AKo.

Tough luck mate - serves you right for being a low-life Yank.

Hyzepher

Lafortezza

Originally posted by henbane
Most of these questions are based on odds and outs. You just don't think about them explicitly. Anybody with a little experience & practice should be able to understand these numbers without thinking directly about them.

Most of the questions are based on odds and out but for people like me who can just about think of "My outs are any Queen or any Heart" and haven't a clue/speed of thought to figure out pot odds, its a good way to quiz yourself on the available information. Instead of looking at him going "What does he have..what does he have...??" you compare how good you think your hand is versus how good his might be.

I just thought "Am I ahead or not?" was a handy starting point to try to figure out the best decision to make in a tricky situation.