Listowel

PH01

Don't expect to get a return from your money from this place. I did fantasy betting for 5 days last week for meeting there and I still lost money (well not real money, only pretend money). In the five days I picked 11 winners and 11 places and I still came out in the red.

Is it my form reading or is it just Listowel?

Morgans

I think you just have to be more selective. Try to only put real money on the 11 winners.

PH01

More selective? Gawd I wouldn't know where to start? I suppose I would stop picking horses in novice, amateur and apprentice races and just concentrate on the others. Is that what you mean?

I though Iwas spreading the risk if I picked horses in every race. Like you would do if you were at the track. But maybe this isn't a good idea?

Morgans

Definitely not the best idea. Well, not if you would liek to make some extra money from the game. Contrary to what you say, I find the best races to make money from are novice races, and also often amatuer races. Stay away from handicaps. Thats where the game is loaded against you. Better prices, I know, you might see something that is miles ahead of the handicapper. Otherwise, its these races that the bookies make their money on - first ones priced up every morning. The less competitive the better if you ask me. And if you fancy a horse with a known good amateur/apprentice on board, you also have an extra edge. Thats what I think.

The key to winning is discipline. I know this, but it still difficult to win.

pro_gnostic_8

Originally posted by PH01
I suppose I would stop picking horses in novice, amateur and apprentice races and just concentrate on the others.

I'm in agreement with Morgans on this ................ You'll achieve better profitability in the long run by concentrating on non-handicaps rather than handicaps. Approx 47% of non-handicaps are won by the favourite whereas in handicaps the favourite ratio is much lower at around 18-20%. True the S.P's do appear higher in handicaps, but you're getting screwed on prices in handicaps with an over-round of as high as 180% against a usual over-round of 120% in non-handicaps.

quote

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I find the best races to make money from are novice races,

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'Cept novice chases, maybe.................... usually half the field fail to complete the course.

Morgans

Off course you must take this into account, but bookies allow an edge for the completion rate in those types of races. If you study them properly, i think they are the best way of making money. For instance, you often get horses that were decent over hurdles that dont take to fences, these take a big chunk of the market in these races. If you can identify these correctly, and avoid them all the better to you.

Conversly, fences make some horses improve out of all recognition. If you can spot these improvers, and if the horse jumps safely, front runner even better, they can often win races that you would think that their talent wouldnt entitle them to. Giving you an edge over the bookies.

pro_gnostic_8

Very true.

PH01

A stupid question comin at'cha here...

What's the difference between a hurdle and a fence? Is it that fences are bigger?

Morgans

Short answer is that they are bigger. They are the big birch made black things you see horses jumping. Hurldes are timber framed, smaller. The difference doesnt just lie there. The objective in both is to get over them as quick as possible. How its done differs. Hurdle races, in general, are run at a quicker pace, and most horses will jump hurdles at least adequately. However, when it comes to the top level of jumpers, any mistake is crucial. The momentum lost by a mistake can cost many lengths, while not "knocking the stuffing out of horses". Due to the speed at which they are travelling falls at hurdles are often more dangerous than those at fences. Hurdles also are a more realistic target for horses coming off the flat.

Fences are bigger, and while jumping at speed is teh ideal mistakes at fences often knocks teh stuffing out of a horse, many times to the extent that they may pull up after numerous damaging mistakes. There is more likelyhood of horses falling at fences, the are bigger, broader, and less forgiving of mistakes. National hunt bred horses, rather than flat bred horses often come into their own when the jump fences rather than having to cope with teh quicker falt bred horses over hurdles. Look at Beef or Salmon's form for an example.

notfromhere

on today