Villain Registered User
#1

It looks like today could deliver a truly historical event with the IRA releasing a statement which will see the organisation end all activities. The release of Sean Kelly last night along with Martin McGuinness saying only a few hours ago that “in a few hours it will be the dawning of a bright new day in Ireland” after he had arrived in the US to brief Bush’s envy. McGuinness has a press conference scheduled for noon (5pm Irish time) by which time it is expected the IRA will have released it’s statement.

I know no matter what the statement says there will be many here who will dismiss it, but I truly believe that this will be a momentous historical event which will see an end to the armed struggle and a final move to democratic politics.

Hobbes Registered User
#2

DUP have already dismissed it.

TBH anything other then a complete disbandment is not going to cut it.

Will be intresting to see how Bush spins it as something he helped bring about.

Victor Registered User
#3

irish1
I know no matter what the statement says there will be many here who will dismiss it
Well hopefully it will be a change. I've been hopefully since 1985 (a lot closer to 1972 than today is).

bonkey Administrator
#4

irish1
It looks like today could deliver a truly historical event with the IRA releasing a statement which will see the organisation end all activities.


I wonder if I shoudl start a book on how long it takes before there is an article in the media / here about something which contradicts "all activities" and we'll have to listen to yet another round of explanations as to why the particular activity in question wasn't actually covered.

F'r example...will recruitment, weapons-acquisition and information-acquisition count as activities? Will members meeting and/or discussing the future of the IRA qualify as an activity?

Or will it just be a "we'll stop beating up people and robbing banks" sort of "all activity"?

OK - I'm jumping the gun. I know I am. But I'm putting my marker down now and saynig I am pessimistic and believe that whatever statement is issued will not be a clear, unequivocable statement saying that the IRA will cease to exist in any active form.

I know no matter what the statement says there will be many here who will dismiss it,

I think statements on their own have long-established to be worthless. If what the IRA promise sounds worthwhile, then it will still be discounted until they show they're living up to their words. Whether you like it or not, the IRA does not have what you might consider to be the trust of the people.

The crunch is finding out if they have the cojones to live up to their words (whatever those words may be) in the face of such skepticism.


but I truly believe that this will be a momentous historical event which will see an end to the armed struggle and a final move to democratic politics.

I hope you're right, but I believe that if you consider teh statement to be historical before waiting to find out how its played out in practice, then you really haven't been looking at whats been happening over the last 20 years and more, except perhaps through rose-tinted glasses.


TBH anything other then a complete disbandment is not going to cut it.[./quote]
Indeed. One has to ask what the purpose of a complete cessation of all activities would be if not to sort-of-disband only without actually disbanding.

Which then begs teh question...why not disband...

...but hey...jumping the gun again. Maybe they'll announce disbandment, hand over all weapons and proceeds to mediators, and just disappear.

jc

Villain Registered User
#5

Bonkey I am more than aware of was had happened over the past 20 years, I didn't say I know it will be historical, I said I truly believe it will be and I do, I think all the signs are there that this will be a final move.

I agree with you that the real test is what happens in the coming months, i.e. if they will follow through with their word and end all activities and decomission all weapons.

IMO "all activities" is just that, everything must stop, obviously the group of people will still excist and they will have commemorations but all activites must cease to excist. I think Bertie said something along those lines lately.

tomMK1 Banned
#6

there is a rumour going around that the governments have already seen the statement so it'll be interesting to see what it says.

After listening to that fella from the Sunday Indo on the last word telling us that carrickmore has lots of houses with jacuzzis (no idea what carrickmore he means but its certainly not the tyrone one he was reffering to) and basically talking a lot (and i mean a lot) of rubbish, i dont think the Indo reading public will be too interested in the statement - well yer man certainly sounded like he had dismissed it already

Genghis Registered User
#7

At this point in time, I think the IRA know that they will be wasting their time if they do not issue a statement that ends all contentious, criminal, paramilitary, violent and intimidatory activity. They will also know that to be effective it will need to be backed up by actions, and it will need time to be verified and believed by the unionists.

The big question will be how far they / Sinn Fein go on policing. That is likely to be the last stumbling block to a return to Stromont and (relatively) normal politics in the North. I have a feeling the Sinn Fein will hold off on this one to negotiate before resuming Stormont.

It may not be a bad strategy - leave something substantial for the Unionists to complain about, rather than having them moan about insubstantial issues such as meeting, associating, commemorating, etc which, imho can be justified as reasonable in the context of an overall standing-down of their other activities.

tomMK1 Banned
#8

the policing issue will have to be dealt with eventually so the sooner the better imho

Genghis Registered User
#9

I agree, but I still can't see the IRA / SF "give it all away" today.

BuffyBot Administrator
#10

I'm putting my marker down now and saynig I am pessimistic and believe that whatever statement is issued will not be a clear, unequivocable statement saying that the IRA will cease to exist in any active form.


I think quite a substantial portion of people feel somewhat similar. It'll be interesting to see what comes about.

Hobbes Registered User
#11

BBC News: "IRA statement will challenge republicans and nationalists - Gerry Adams. More soon."

#12

Genghis
I agree, but I still can't see the IRA / SF "give it all away" today.



Exactly, either that or they have another ship load of m16s coming in

hill16 Banned
#13

My worry is that Nationalist areas will be left unprotected from Loyalist attacks which have increased in the last month or two,and what happens if other Republican groups increase their attacks on security forces, will the IRA get the blame.

Nuttzz Registered User
#14

hill16
My worry is that Nationalist areas will be left unprotected from Loyalist attacks which have increased in the last month or two,and what happens if other Republican groups increase their attacks on security forces, will the IRA get the blame.


the loyalists are too busy fighting over drug turf to be bothering nationalists at the moment.

It will be interesting to see, no doubt they wont want to give Big Ian and Co the idea they have surrendered....

Villain Registered User
#15

From breaking news.ie:

The IRA statement today will challenge Irish republicans and nationalists, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams has declared.

Mr Adams said: “The forthcoming IRA statement will challenge Irish republicans and nationalists. I appeal to everyone to carefully read what the army has to say and to remain united and steadfast.

“The IRA statement will also challenge others, especially the two governments and the Unionists.

“The Dublin political establishment in particular will have a lot of soul-searching to do if those in political leadership are to meet the needs of the upcoming period.”

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