Fitzo123 Registered User
#151

It's going to cross back into the Atlantic remaining as a hurricane at this rate; incredible stuff. Very lucky to this point that it's missed populated areas on the coast.

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MJohnston Registered User
#152

J6P said:
Another good video of the stadium effect inside the eye wall..

https://www.facebook.com/Stefan1126/videos/10156491591296138/


The one time someone has perfect conditions to record that and then they record it portrait and upload it in 360p :cries:

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17-pdr Registered User
#153

MJohnston said:
The one time someone has perfect conditions to record that and then they record it portrait and upload it in 360p :cries:


Yep, was thinking that too! Its incredibly rare to get good quality genuine stadium effect video on the ground at ground zero inside a storm. Normally the reserve of the hurricane hunter aircraft.

Rhineshark Registered User
#154

Fitzo123 said:
It's going to cross back into the Atlantic remaining as a hurricane at this rate; incredible stuff. Very lucky to this point that it's missed populated areas on the coast.


Unfortunately, it didn't. The destruction in and around Panama City looks devastating.

MJohnston Registered User
#155

Remarkable video of it just demolishing buildings here:

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1050094351790034944

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BumperD Registered User
#157

Some horrendous damage being shown on weather channel right now from Panama City, looks like a few embedded tornadoes ripped through there

Cantona's Collars Registered User
#158

The gauges at one of the air force bases recorded winds of 130mph before they broke.

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John.Icy Registered User
#159

How come Hurricanes are never portrayed as such on the bog standard GFS runs? Looking at the N.America view and Michael is measly when compared to big atlantic storms.

Is it a resolution/pressure thing or something else?

17-pdr Registered User
#160

John.Icy said:
How come Hurricanes are never portrayed as such on the bog standard GFS runs? Looking at the N.America view and Michael is measly when compared to big atlantic storms.

Is it a resolution/pressure thing or something else?


Size basically. The most destructive wind-field of a hurricane along with the associated pressure changes represented by tightly packed isobars might be only 20 or 30 miles across (the eye wall) while a similar wind-field of a mid-latitude depression may extend for a couple of hundred miles or more. This is why on a continental sized model chart you see them as tiny features. Here is tomorrow's ECM. Callum to the NW of Ireland with Leslie down at the bottom. Leslie looks insignificant on that chart, but the NHC is predicting winds of 85 mph for it.

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Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#161

17-pdr said:
Size basically. The most destructive wind-field of a hurricane along with the associated pressure changes represented by tightly packed isobars might be only 20 or 30 miles across (the eye wall) while a similar wind-field of a mid-latitude depression may extend for a couple of hundred miles or more. This is why on a continental sized model chart you see them as tiny features. Here is tomorrow's ECM. Callum to the NW of Ireland with Leslie down at the bottom. Leslie looks insignificant on that chart, but the NHC is predicting winds of 85 mph for it.



It's got a lot to do with the projection of the map. The further polewars from the equator you go the larger more distorted area becomes. Draw a horizontal line 1110 km (10 degrees) long on both the 10 ° and 70 ° lines of latitude and you'll find that the 70 ° line appears much longer on the map. If a hurricane is 10 degrees wide it will therefore appear much smaller than one of our storms 10 degrees wide.

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17-pdr Registered User
#162

Gaoth Laidir said:
It's got a lot to do with the projection of the map. The further polewars from the equator you go the larger more distorted area becomes. Draw a horizontal line 1110 km (10 degrees) long on both the 10 ° and 70 ° lines of latitude and you'll find that the 70 ° line appears much longer on the map. If a hurricane is 10 degrees wide it will therefore appear much smaller than one of our storms 10 degrees wide.


Allowing for the distortions of a Mercator projection, many tropical cyclones would still appear somewhat smaller than our mid latitude systems. Systems like Tracey and Marco (2008) would be pretty small if represented on a Mercator based chart at our latitudes. Then again Tip would be pretty big......

M.T. Cranium Registered User
#163

The GFS currently has Leslie making a landfall in southern Portugal on Saturday night into Sunday morning (at tropical storm intensity, possibly extra-tropical, at that point), about 50 miles south of Lisbon. The model has been wavering between that kind of track and a loop back to the west for yet another tour of the North Atlantic but it seems that the rapid progress of Michael is locking in the ridge between the two systems and pushing Leslie on to the east. The same model run (12z) takes Michael rather harmlessly south of Ireland on Sunday night and into the Biscay region where it is supposed to disintegrate with remnants reaching the north coast of Spain. Meanwhile what is left of Leslie would cross southern Spain and die out in the western Med.

A frontal system expected in Ireland by late Monday is from a separate weather system that moved into the Atlantic from northeast Canada and Greenland.

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star gazer Moderator
#164

Mexico Beach, Florida was badly impacted with some terrible consequences for the area as well as Panama City. Evacuations were obviously extremely important and though there was a shorter lead in time with an intensity increase coming towards landfall, there was time for people to take advice. The death toll is 12 so far with searches continuing in the harder to reach parts.
rte
independent.ie

https://twitter.com/CNNweather/status/1050398864874893312
https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/1050740411646570496
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1050725921538347008

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RobertKK Registered User
#165

Hurricanes can be upgraded in category based on the destruction they do. If the destruction is at Cat 5 level then Michael could get upgraded as having been a cat 5 at landfall.
Hurricane Andrew was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane 10 years after it had hit Florida.

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