Artane2002 Registered User
#31

sryanbruen said:
Whilst Siberian snow cover is lacking so far compared to previous years (especially 2017 for instance), Scandinavian snow cover continues to increase dramatically. In fact in the archive, I could not find as much snow cover over Scandinavia back to 1998 as 2018 on 5 October. Closest matches being 2003 and 2009. Notice 2003 and 2009 didn't have large extents of snow cover over Siberia either (especially 2009) on 5th October.


I would guess 2009 is going to be one of the years in the final analogues for winter. If that Eastern European High being shown by the models comes off, I'd expect lots more increase in snow over Siberia because of northerlies coming down there. The warm air being sucked up by that high would displace the cold to Siberia. Caveat is I'm no expert.

Here is a chart to illustrate what I'm saying

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Artane2002 Registered User
#32

Sryan kindly found this tweet yesterday which shows the extreme Warm Air Advection (WAA) going into the Arctic.

https://twitter.com/TerliWetter/status/1048658496240189440

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sryanbruen Registered User
#33

EPS show a massive increase in Siberian snow cover in the next week, an implication for a negative AO.

https://twitter.com/longrangesnow/status/1049233376475938816?s=21

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GeneHunt Registered User
#34

Artane2002 said:
Sryan kindly found this tweet yesterday which shows the extreme Warm Air Advection (WAA) going into the Arctic.

https://twitter.com/TerliWetter/status/1048658496240189440



Again a massive blocking over Europe, especially over Scandinavia (have some kind of deja vu) - same Situation with the Jet over the Atlantic like in Summer. This is 500hPa anomaly graphic.


Could we (here in the British Isles) be lucky enough to get a mild winter (2018/2019), if there's a blocking over Europe? My own thinking is we will get a blocking over Europe but it would cause extreme cold, not too much snow just extreme cold (-10 to -15ish frost) for long periods.

Artane2002 Registered User
#35

GeneHunt said:
Could we (here in the British Isles) be lucky enough to get a mild winter (2018/2019), if there's a blocking over Europe? My own thinking is we will get a blocking over Europe but it would cause extreme cold, not too much snow just extreme cold (-10 to -15ish frost) for long periods.


Depends on where exactly in Europe the blocking is. If it's over Scandinavia then that would generally result in cold weather. If it's over Central Europe it would bring us mild southerlies. If it's over France/Spain then we would get mild, often wet weather.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#36

Siberian snow cover still very slowly advancing, among the lowest in the record (back to 1998) for this point in time.



Meanwhile, on the other side, this was North Dakota, US on 10th October with farmers harvesting wheat......

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Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#38

Whatever the long-term trend, it's good to see that the most recent 12 years of annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent have shown a flattening or even a very slight upward trend of ~0.1% per year.

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Artane2002 Registered User
#39

Some nice advances west over the weekend!

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