Loughc Moderator
#181

icesnowfrost said:
Love this time of year. And so it begins ❄️


Username checks out

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sryanbruen Registered User
#182

According to Nick L, this month's ECM seasonal update shows an easterly December, an anticyclonic January whilst a positive NAO February. Would be decent if it were to verify I have to say.

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Artane2002 Registered User
#183

sryanbruen said:
According to Nick L, this month's ECM seasonal update shows an easterly December, an anticyclonic January whilst a positive NAO February. Would be decent if it were to verify I have to say.


3 more days until we can see them, hopefully December looks as juicy as it sounds. These are his current thoughts for winter

Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not..

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nacho libre Registered User
#184

How accurate was the ECM seasonal last year in comparison to the CFS?
If that is the Nick L, i think it is, he is one of the better contributers on netweather, he is not prone to hyperbole, or letting personal preference get in the way- which often leads to a lot of hopecasting rather than forecasting over on netweather.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#185

nacho libre said:
How accurate was the ECM seasonal last year in comparison to the CFS?
If that is the Nick L, i think it is is, he is one of the better contributers on netweather, he is not porone to hyperbole, or letting personal reference get in the way- which often leads to a lot of hopecasting rather than forecasting over on netweather.


In its November update, it was near perfect for a long range forecast.

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nacho libre Registered User
#186

sryanbruen said:
In its November update, it was near perfect for a long range forecast.


Good stuff. By the way was the QBO in 2010 similar to what it is now- esaterly but projected to go westerly during winter. Also isn't there a lag effect to consider before it transitions from one state to the other?

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sryanbruen Registered User
#187

From my own interpretations of the ECM tri-monthly MSLP anomalies:

October update of the ECM seasonal model for Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb show a lot of easterly potential but the high is slightly anchored over towards eastern Europe than directly over Scandinavia, this could be quite problematic and easterly winds just missing the UK and Ireland.



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Mount Vesuvius Registered User
#188

Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.

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Loughc Moderator
#189

Mount Vesuvius said:
Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.


Username kinda checks out.

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JCX BXC Registered User
#190

Loughc said:
Username kinda checks out.


Ah now, two of these on the one page! *Importing new sence of humour*

Loughc Moderator
#191

JCX BXC said:
Ah now, two of these on the one page! *Importing new sence of humour*


*sense

ZX7R Registered User
#192

Mount Vesuvius said:
Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.


I normally don't like battle ground scenarios , due to the fact we are always looking across the sea at Brittan wining the battle,and us looking out the window at pouring rain

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Charles Babbage Registered User
#193

ZX7R said:
I normally don't like battle ground scenarios , due to the fact we are always looking across the sea at Brittan wining the battle,and us looking out the window at pouring rain



Did we not have a famous win in 1982?

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sryanbruen Registered User
#194

ECM seasonal model monthly charts are out publicly now, they're exactly what others have been saying, very easterly December, anticyclonic January whilst westerly/unsettled February. November also looks like there's some easterly or northerly potential. Looks a lot like Winter 1996-97 to me.

November:



December:



January:



February:

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Mount Vesuvius Registered User
#195

I'd prefer the January set up, as the Scandinavian high anomaly is better positioned for us to ward off high attacking westerlies. ie better chance of slider lows.

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