km79 Registered User
#61

giveitholly said:
Unfortunately km79 rain is badly wanted in some parts of the country,growth has stopped again and ground is rock hard and cracking


I know
Ye can have it
Most parts of Connacht can do without an inch a day now
Hopefully it moves to the South East !

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giveitholly Registered User
#62

km79 said:
I know
Ye can have it
Most parts of Connacht can do without an inch a day now
Hopefully it moves to the South East !


True send it down our way please!

MJohnston Registered User
#63

km79 said:
Is it too soon to start a “will it ever stop raining again thread “

:@



Could ye start it instead of clogging up the Technical threads with chat?

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km79 Registered User
#64

Is this still forecast ? Don’t see it mentioned by Met, Syran or YR.NO

Meteorite58 Moderator
#65

Mod Note: A reminder that this thread was set up following the request from posters that it would be good to have a thread for charts and model /technical discussion only. There are other threads for more generalized discussion and chit chat.

Please use the right threads when posting.

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#66

GFS has delayed the rainfall this weekend but has increased the total accumulation see early Sat morning to Sun night.

Will be interesting to see if the ECM follows suit.




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Meteorite58 Moderator
#67

ECM 12Z not showing the same amount of precipitation as the GFS over the weekend, still showing a decent amount predicted so far. ICON showing a big amount of rainfall for Sat especially the Northern half of the country.











I would not be surprised to see conditions coming close to or exceeding warning level criteria for rainfall over the weekend.


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Meteorite58 Moderator
#68

Tropical Storm Debby got a mention on the Weather Forecast tonight after the News. It will dissipate within about 30 hrs and become absorbed by the system approaching Ireland over the weekend. Although no longer a storm the warm mass of moist air will add to the rainfall amounts. Joanna Donnelly did not give an amount only to mention that Saturday could be very wet, but one could gather by the tone that there is some uncertainty but giving it a bit of caution at the same time.










581
WTNT44 KNHC 082033
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming
elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an
area of moderate convection. A blend of the satellite intensity
estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity
of 35 kt at this time. Debby is already moving over cooler waters,
so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should
should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the
solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast
or 040 degrees at 13 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern
should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in
forward speed. The track models continue to be in pretty good
agreement.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 42.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 43.5N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 45.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#69

Tropical Storm DEBBY



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Meteorite58 Moderator
#70

GFS and Icon showing a lot less rain on the latest runs. Models chopping and changing. GFS more in line with the 12Z ECM.

Getting very mild and humid overnight Fri into Sat and mild if not warm on Sat.







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Meteorite58 Moderator
#71

Much reduced rainfall predictions from the models for over the weekend.The LP for the most part stalling off the W coast of Ireland as it fills . Pressure over Europe initially doing a good job of blocking it as it dissipates .The SW of the UK ending up with the heaviest rain as the main Cold front trails up over it, if it were to come closer to Ireland then the E and SE could get a lot of rainfall but the models not showing that atm.















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Meteorite58 Moderator
#72

Warm and sticky weekend with high humidity.










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Meteorite58 Moderator
#73

The change in air mass coming up over the country on Sat accompanied with rainfall.











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sryanbruen Registered User
#74

Not much rainfall over the next 48 hours on the ECM 12z with the west of Britain (particularly south Wales) getting most of it. Southeast looks to be getting between 7-14mm.

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#75

Some warm weather showing up on the models for next Tues






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