sryanbruen Registered User
#421

Yeah, ECM clusters all signalling a settled trend as far out as day 12, just variations on where the high sits exactly. That high alignment is the factor on how warm it could get again (also the time of year in some cases).

In 1991, 28c was reached at the end of August and beginning of September. 29c was reached at the beginning of September 1906.



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Harry Palmr Registered User
#422

Anyone see the Met Office outlook? They reckon that due to the temp of the North Atlantic and associated water bodies we're more likely to see above average temps through late Summer and well into Autumn with HP.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/aug/06/uk-weather-to-stay-warmer-than-average-until-october

“Sea surface temperatures close to the UK have reached near-record levels as a result of the prolonged hot and sunny weather,” it said.

“This also increases the chances of above-average UK temperatures, particularly in the early part of the forecast period.

“For August-September-October, the Met Office long-range prediction system, in agreement with systems from other prediction centres, shows an increased chance of high-pressure patterns close to the UK.”

The three-month outlook suggests a greater likelihood of high-pressure systems near the UK, meaning settled conditions are more likely than unsettled weather.

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Cork Boy 53 Registered User
#423

Harry Palmr said:
Anyone see the Met Office outlook? They reckon that due to the temp of the North Atlantic and associated water bodies we're more likely to see above average temps through late Summer and well into Autumn with HP.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/aug/06/uk-weather-to-stay-warmer-than-average-until-october


http://www.msn.com/en-ie/weather/topstories/warm-weather-until-october-not-likely-says-met-%c3%a9ireann-as-it-dismisses-british-forecast/ar-BBLyoIe?li=BBr5HCU

Harry Palmr Registered User
#424

As Met Error can't even predict with any accuracy rainfall incidence, duration, levels for the south east of Ireland I'll take my chances with the UK met office.

That article is a actually a very poor rebuttal, if that's what it's intended to be (I'm always suspicious of trash media like the indo when it comes to accuracy) Wonder which meteorologist made the statement

nacho libre Registered User
#425

These warmer sea temperatures would be great if we got a potent and sustained north eastlerly from the Russian arctic in late November and December. It would be good to get some Thunder snow this winter. It's never too early to start thinking about a snowy winter

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hatrickpatrick Registered User
#426

Wow, the FI GFS 6z is an orgasm for the eyes ��

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sryanbruen Registered User
#427

sryanbruen said:
Yeah, ECM clusters all signalling a settled trend as far out as day 12, just variations on where the high sits exactly. That high alignment is the factor on how warm it could get again (also the time of year in some cases).

In 1991, 28c was reached at the end of August and beginning of September. 29c was reached at the beginning of September 1906.


Pretty much gone now, it's a changeable pattern, no deluges, no scorchers. All fairly typical for Ireland - something we haven't seen a lot of this year. No Atlantic height rises like has been shown by some models.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#428

The jet stream and Polar Vortex are gradually waking up



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sryanbruen Registered User
#429

Signs of a Scandi High redeveloping on the UKMO 12z at +144 hrs, not giving much thought for now though.

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hatrickpatrick Registered User
#430

Interesting ECM chart for next Sunday:



What kind of weather would we get with a chart like this? would that tiny 1015 circle sitting right on the jet stream border to our West be a surface high or low, given its surroundings, and thus would it have fronts etc which might cross Ireland or would it be more like a mini-anticyclone?

Meteorite58 Moderator
#431

I think that area of lower pressure showing up on the Sun chart could be the remnants of what is currently showing up as a non tropical low pressure system as detailed below by the NHC . Worth keeping an eye on, might strengthen further or just merge with an other area of LP and have very little impact or none. A good focal point I find when going through the charts each day to see where and how strong an item like this is faring. What you reckon ?





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small, non-tropical, low pressure system located about 500 miles
south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms to the south-southeast of its center of
circulation. This low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics through the middle of the week while it
meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch









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hatrickpatrick Registered User
#433

@Sryan, can you point to any particular factors which have made this period difficult for the models to get a handle on - compared with the remarkable consistency and accuracy even in FI forecasts during the late Spring and early Summer? I presume the appearance of subtropical disturbances as noted earlier in the thread play a role? Our weather models seem to go completely off the rails as soon as anything with tropical characteristics appears on the scene.

Any other particular factors at play? Or is it perhaps that we've gotten so used to a consistent, unusually predictable pattern so far that the usual level of uncertainty just seems dodgier than usual in comparison?

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hatrickpatrick Registered User
#434

Looks like the 0z GFS got stuck last night, never seen this before O_o

Watching now to see if the 6z overwrites the entire mixed run or gets stuck too

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#435

After a warm weekend temps tapering off and getting cooler from midweek until milder air possibly returns around next weekend maybe briefly.

Air Mass after midweek looks like it is coming straight out of Greenland.






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