sdanseo Registered User
#121

ECM seems to show a very deep depression in around 10 days from what you'd imagine are the remnants of Leslie. 948mb between us and Iceland which is no joke if it moved east.

But it's more than a week away. Might as well hang a fish out your window and use it to predict snow in January.

Meteorite58 Moderator
#122

A wide spread on the ECMWF spaghetti plot for Leslie , it had shown the remnants merge with other weather systems off the W coast of Ireland by next weekend but dropped it again , instead keeping it in the Sub Tropics. GFS has shown for a few runs now the weakened and filling remnants of Leslie off the W coast by around next fri. ???








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17-pdr Registered User
#123

Leslie steadfastly refusing to do the normal thing and move N/NE and eventually get picked up by the mid-latitude Westerlies. Latest NHC advisories moves it N for a while but then turning SE maintaining tropical characteristics out to next Wednesday at least. First NHC discussion on this system was on Sunday 23 Sept, so it's hanging around a bit.

17-pdr Registered User
#124

Leslie due to become a hurricane in the middle of the week. Current GFS modelling has it zipping past the West coast of Ireland over the weekend while the ECM heads it toward Spain and dissipating.

17-pdr Registered User
#125

Michael due to become a hurricane shortly and threaten the Gulf Coast sometime on Wednesday. SHIPS forecast is 86 kts when about 100 miles from land (round midday Wednesday).

Kermit.de.frog Registered User
#126

Yes, Michael is now a hurricane and expected to become a major Category 3 (possibly higher?) hurricane over the next 48 hours before threatening Florida panhandle.






Definitely need to watch this one.

Birdnuts Registered User
#127

Anyone got updates on that system in the Arabian Sea??

greedygoblin Registered User
#128

Birdnuts said:
Anyone got updates on that system in the Arabian Sea??

Cyclonic storm Luban. Forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm over the next day or two. From the RSMC (New Delhi):
The cyclonic storm over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Arabian sea moved further West-Northwestwards with a speed of about 11 kmph in last 03 hours and lay centered at 1800 UTC of 08th October 2018 over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Arabian sea, near latitude 12.7°N and longitude 60.5°E, about 840 km East-Southeast of Salalah (Oman), 980 km East-Southeast of Al-Ghaidah (41398-Yemen) and 710 km East of Socotra islands (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move West-Northwestwards towards south Oman & Yemen coasts during next 5 days.

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sdanseo Registered User
#129

I got a proper chuckle from the NHC's latest synopsis of Leslie. Slowly on a mission to turn the Atlantic into an earth version of Jupiter's big red spot.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/091440.shtml?

I can't rule out that Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.

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Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#130

TS Nadine has made what will be a cameo appearance in the eastern Atlantic this evening too. Not set to amount to much and will dissipate in a couple of days.

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sdanseo Registered User
#131

When was the last time the Canaries were hit by a Hurricane/TS?

Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#132

sdanseo said:
When was the last time the Canaries were hit by a Hurricane/TS?



There's massive uncertainty with the track forecast, the largest forecaster Blake has ever witnessed. It could equally head west instead of east.

Magic ]=) Registered User
#133

Was just looking at windy.com and a three models out of four are showing something big for next Tuesday. Have anyone seen that ??
According to windy it will form right after Michael.

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Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#134

Hurricane Leslie has been meandering around the mid-Atlantic since 23rd of September but has finally decided to make a dash for it and make landfall about mid-way up the coast of Portugal tomorrow night as a 55-65-kt post-tropical storm.

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