17-pdr Registered User
#1

As with last year's thread the aim is to keep a record of tropical systems that don't garner the public attention as much as hurricanes in the Western Atlantic get. If (and probably when) such systems do develop later on in the year they will deserve their own threads.

The most notable system at the moment is Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) which scored a pretty heavy hit on Tonga, destroying it's parliament building in the process.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43039931

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0918.gif

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17-pdr Registered User
#2

Gita still a pretty well organised system with 1 minute winds of around 120 mph. Due to steadily weaken in the next few days though. May affect NZ towards the end of its run. Will be TS strength by then.

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star gazer Moderator
#3



Now Tropical Storm Lane expected to intensify rapidly in the coming days. NHC

Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 125.6W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 125.6 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lane is
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, and a major hurricane
by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

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star gazer Moderator
#4

Category 4 Hurricane Lane

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

...POWERFUL LANE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND MAY BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 149.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

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star gazer Moderator
#5


Discussion 27


1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along
exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been
issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical
Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight.

2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.1N 152.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

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star gazer Moderator
#6

Category 5 Hurricane Lane

WTPA32 PHFO 220553
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude
154.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell

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Harry Palmr Registered User
#8

Surely this is a Cyclone?

star gazer Moderator
#9

The track of Lane is slightly closer to the Hawaiian islands on the latest run with a sharp turn West still expected near the islands on Friday. It is due to gradually weaken from shear but still poses a big threat from rain, wind and storm surge. Total rain accumulations 250mm to 500mm forecast with isloated up to 750mm, storm surge up to 1.2m on South and West coasts near the centre of Lane.

Lane Satellite images

Hurricane / Typhoon:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/glossary.php

Rhineshark Registered User
#10

Lane hasn't even fully arrived yet but the town of Hilo on Big Island has already recorded 12inches of rain.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-lane-live-updates-hawaii-latest-oahu-flash-flooding-fema-landslides-winds-rain-a8503921.html%3famp

Hawaii really isn't prepared for this. It's very unusual anyway so it's not really built for this sort of thing. There's shelter space for about 270k people out of 1.4m but most of the shelters are apparently not really built for this sort of wind strength either. And the islands have a relatively large homeless population that mostly live near the beaches. This could end up being another Puerto Rico, God help them.

Reckless Abandonment Registered User
#11

Have been lucky enough to go to Hawaii a few times. Honolulu sits right on the coast (famous Waikiki beach) Lane is going to send one hell of a storm surge right at it. 20/30 story hotels right on the coast. I mean 20ft from it and not that high up either. Between rain and storm surge it could do a lot of damage. Pearl harbour is very close to the city to.

star gazer Moderator
#13

Flash flooding and mudslides very worrying risk with the heavy rainfall accumulations expected:
https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1032717416650891264
There is still the danger that Lane would make landfall or come very close to one or more of the islands
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032714569473581056

star gazer Moderator
#14




WTPA42 PHFO 232109
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning,
even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed
by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite
imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a
relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four
centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and
SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for
this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative.

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

For flooding in a high rise building:
https://twitter.com/femaregion9/status/1032731440734076929

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star gazer Moderator
#15

Hurricane Lane has weakened heading North towards Honolulu, 245km away at 7km/h but is forecast to turn West before getting there. With the slow forward motion, the rainfall totals are the main concern at the moment. Maximum sustained wind of 165km/h, min central pressure 966mb. Category 2 Hurricane, with weakening forecast to continue.

Brush fire on Maui.
https://twitter.com/CNNweather/status/1033024726007013376

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