Discussion thread for potential bitterly cold weather from Sunday evening.
- Ice, Frost, Snow,Cold Temperatures
We can only really go to Monday night with much confidence in the smaller details however it will be a much colder week overall, there is no doubt about that.
Daytime maxima temperatures from Monday - Friday 0 - 5 c.
Minima Monday - Friday +1 - -7 c (coldest midweek)
The first real snowfall risk is from Monday evening nationwide as a frontal system tries to come in from the Atlantic. It will meet exceptionally cold air over Ireland and to our east - and - be followed closely by exceptionally cold air to our west.
As the cold air to the west "catches up" and mixes with that to the east the front stalls, occludes and has no further desire to live () except go out in a blaze of glory and apocalyptic snow bomb
Well, not quite...
To illustrate on Monday afternoon (you see here the two cold air masses meeting over Ireland) :
There are plenty of charts that have been posted in the model discussion thread here.
The front will stall and weaken but should give some snowfall before dieing out as it heads in to the Irish sea. This could be disruptive for Tuesday morning. Amounts too tricky to call at this stage - if I had to take a punt i'd go with 2 - 5 cm's to low levels for now.
Could yet be more but the midlands and east are most at risk.
There are still some differences between the models on Monday - some offer more extensive snowfall and colder temperatures than others.
*Night time temperatures will be very cold and well below freezing extensively - severe frost and ice and where snow lies temperatures will be even lower again.
We'll keep an eye on the rest of the week.
Sneak peek for Tuesday.
To recap bitterly cold from Sunday evening and for the rest of next week. Extensive frost and ice, snowfall at times, some disruption possible.
P.S If anyone would like to recommend a structure for these threads please do. It's a lot of information to try to get in to the OP to try and keep as simple as possible for you without doing a thesis
From what I am seeing in the models atm is a slow moving cold front passing over the country ( W to E ) on Monday into Tues morning which is moving in to cold air and cold air following it. Looks very cold overnight Sun night into Mon morning and Temps getting up around 4 or 6C the first half of the day and dropping in the afternoon towards evening to perhaps 0 to 3C. The front looks to produce snow albeit wet perhaps with sleet and rain at stages. How much will it snow, where and will it stick all to be determined closer to the day. Would imagine that high ground at least will get a good coating. What I will be watching is for an increase in cold uppers, increase in an Easterly breeze to see if it slows down the front or will it stall. Tues looks like a very cold day so any accumulated snow on high ground could be slow to melt.
Tues a good day for Satellite Pictures of snow cover perhaps.
Tues wintry showers and Tues night/ Weds morning Streamers on the Irish sea perhaps moving onto the E coast.
I'm not so sure this will be a classic winter snow fall of time gone by- to be fair no one is saying it will be. What i mean is to 3- 5 cm of snow is no great shakes. A classic snow fall is one where we get between 10 - 20 cm on lower ground. We've really not had one like that since the 80's. I would love if we all got to experience something like that. It would go down in snow lore
My main concern is the amount of precipitation, current models not showing particularly heavy and if you consider it will be wet sleet/ snow at lower levels, then it will not amount to much at lower levels. As usual, high ground is the place to be.
Frontal snow rarely delivers much in terms of snow depth in this country, unless the front happens to stall right over us and maintains intensity, we need a lot of stars to align for that to happen.
Get the cold in first and the snow will follow, if all goes as forecast so far I'd be surprised if the potential for such a snowfall doesnt arise at some point soon. Maybe it will be mainly cold and dry but snow depths are definitely still open to change and therefore improvement
Yes, that's my point they are rare, but sometimes the stars do align-we are overdue this happening. We did get 10 cm from a frontal event in December but that was localised and gone after two days. Blizzard does make a good point, if we sustain the cold, the chances of a second or third frontal event producing an epic widespread snowfall to lower level increases.
Come on snow you can do it
ECM still good this morning to my untrained eye. -6 or less uppers from Monday evening basically right through to the end of the run......
I can’t see why there’s just much pessimism, ecm is still pretty much the same as yesterday
Looking to get some work done outside the house from Monday. Was hoping it’ll be dry or mostly dry for a few days. What do ye think? I’m in central Meath. Thanks!
Not a bad forecast by Joanne donnelly there now,mentions the potential for Monday night
Thanks JCX. It’s just that from reading these threads before, ye lads seem to get things right in the outlook more than Met Eireann!
It’s easy to see where the front is on Tuesday!
A squeeze of very cold air from both sides
There’s better outcomes if air from the east wins
I think snow to sea level in lots of places is a greater than 70% chance in that air flow assuming we advect enough of the surface cold from the east into the mix if you follow?
It’s quite a forecast challenge because even though the uppers are -4c,it’s still warmer air meeting colder so for a time you are going to get heavier precipitation before the engagement with that dryer colder air as the front enters Britain weakens it
If conditions are right for snow under the heavier precip,you’ll know all about it