M.T. Cranium Registered User
#31

January 2018 -- Table of Forecasts


FORECASTER ________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Max winds and gusts

MrSkinner ___________ 5.3 _13.7 _--5.8 _115 _115 ___ 49 Malin ___68 Malin
Pauldry______________5.2 _14.3 _--6.5 _108 _101 ___ 50 Malin ___75 Mace

NormaL _____________ 5.1 _13.5 _--7.0 _100 _100 ___50 (*) ____ 80 (**)

rikand ______________ 5.0 _13.5 _--6.0 _090 _120 ___ 58 Mace ___85 Sherk
dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _13.5 _--6.0 _120 _100 ___ 45 Sherk __ 55 Malin
Tae laidir ____________4.9 _14.2 _--7.3 _130 _094 ___ 53 Malin ___82 Mace
john mac ____________4.9 _12.9 _--5.9 _105 _098 ___ 46 Mace ___70 Knock
Kindred Spirit. ________4.9 _12.9 _--7.0 _112 _092 ___ 50 Malin ___80 Bel
Bsal ________________4.9 _12.8 _--7.0 _125 _102 ___ 53 Bel ____ 71 Mace
mickger844posts ______4.8 _13.5 _--7.0 _110 _115 ___ 56 Mace ___72 Mace
sunflower3 __________ 4.8 _13.4 _--6.0 _120 _095 ___ 55 Malin ___68 Malin
Rameire _____ (-3) ___ 4.8 _13.4 _--4.9 _115 _089 ___ 55 Malin ___72 Val

Con Sensus __________4.7 _13.5 _--7.0 _110 _100 ___ 52 Malin ___ 75 Malin

Dacogawa ____ (-1) ___4.7 _13.7 _--6.9 _105 _097 ___ 52 Malin ___ 69 Malin
waterways ____ (-1) __ 4.7 _13.7 _--7.1 _134 _100 ___ 51 Mace ___ 75 Bel
200motels ___ (-25) ___4.7 _13.0 _--6.9 _100 _084 ___ 54 Malin ___70 Val
sryanbruen __________ 4.6 _13.2 _--8.0 _110 _090 ___ 50 Mace ___70 Malin
Lumi _______________ 4.5 _14.1 _--8.5 _110 _090 ___ 51 Malin ___79 Sherk
JCXBXC ____ (-20) ___ 4.5 _13.6 _--9.0 _110 _090 ___ 50 Mace ___ 84 Knock
DOCARCH ___________ 4.3 _14.1 _--7.1 _085 _110 ___ 52 Malin ___69 Malin
Jpmarn _____________ 4.3 _13.5 _--6.5 _125 _090 ___ 58 Bel ____ 78 DubA
M.T. Cranium ________ 4.2 _13.3 _--8.0 _115 _119 ___ 55 Mace ___80 Malin
sdanseo ____________ 4.0 _13.3 _--9.8 _103 _111 ___ 53 Mace ___70 Bel
Joe Public ___________ 2.9 _13.6 _--9.4 _102 _115 ___ 57 Bel ____ 78 Malin
BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___1.7 _14.4 _-13.2 _090 _120 ___ 60 Mace __ 86 Mace

____________________________________________________________

23 entries so that the median (Con Sensus) is the 12th ranked value.

Late penalties were relaxed at least for the first 36h, after that they would have amounted to even more than I assessed two players who entered on the 3rd, but I think these will be fair given the breaks given the earlier late forecasts. However, since JCX BXC had access to data from the 2nd, his bonus score is capped at 8 with no superbonus ... 200motels has no restrictions since he was either unaware of the marks set on the 2nd or is playing fair with lower values.

For NormaL, the * and ** indicate that scoring for location will be based on whether the outcome is normal or less so, I will fit the points to what usually happens. For Con Sensus, here are the counts for max wind forecasts, with Con's points if these locations verify. If none of them verify, as with your forecasts, there will be partial scoring if you name 2nd or 3rd highest location (over the month).

Station ___ Max wind ___ points ___ Max gust ___ points

Malin ________10 ______ 2.5 ________ 8 ________ 2.5
Mace ________ 9 _______2.0 ________ 5 ________ 2.0
Belmullet _____ 3 ______ 1.5 ________ 3 ________ 1.5
Sherkin Island _ 1 ______ 1.0 ________ 2 ________ 1.0

any other _____ 0 ______ 0.0 ________ 4 ________ 0.5 or 1.0

The other locations chosen (only for gusts) were Knock, Valentia and Dublin. Knock had 2 but one was disqualified for this purpose. Valentia had 2 votes and will score 1.0 if it verifies (for Con). Knock or Dublin will score 0.5.

Our consensus forecast is for a rather cold January with somewhat above average precipitation (hopefully including snow?) and near average sunshine.

Values of 53 (Mace) and 84 (Knock) were established on 2nd for the bonus question. In general, this did not influence the forecasts very much if at all, but either of these could of course be surpassed anyway.

Good luck -- the 2017 final scoring has been posted.

5 people have thanked this post
M.T. Cranium Registered User
#32

The highest MAX so far appears to be 13.3 at Valentia on 2nd. I only checked the usual warmest spots, so if this holds up we may find a different value posted at end of month.

Tae laidir Registered User
#33

Ballyhaise and Markee Castle both - 5.5 yesterday.

DOCARCH Moderator
#34

-6.7c reported by ME at Mount Dillon this morning.

M.T. Cranium Registered User
#35

Here's where things stand after the first week ...

IMT was 4.7 which is 0.6 below average; the weekend more than compensated for a generally mild first five days.

MAX is 13.4 and during the week MIN was --5.5 but has since fallen to --6.7 this morning (see above posts).

PRC was 134% of normal. While all eleven sites were above normal, only Malin Head at 243% and Belmullet at 170% were appreciably above that average, in fact all nine of the others were below it and averaged 114%.

SUN averaged 160% of normal (962/600) and most of that work was done over the weekend. Despite this, Casement was slightly below its average (only Sunday 7th had much sunshine there). Normal appears to be around 1.7 hours a day on average at this time of year.

4 people have thanked this post
pauldry Registered User
#36

And coming in on the inside catching everyone unawares is Athenry with -6.8c

5 people have thanked this post
Joe Public Registered User
#37

pauldry said:
And coming in on the inside catching everyone unawares is Athenry with -6.8c



Could be attributed to those low lying fields.

4 people have thanked this post
Tae laidir Registered User
#38

Joe Public said:
Could be attributed to those low lying fields.


Joseph, they are taking you away!

3 people have thanked this post
M.T. Cranium Registered User
#39

We interrupt your slumber for this second week update ...

IMT now at 4.3(4) after a somewhat chilly second week that averaged 4.0 (1.2 below normal).

MAX remains 13.4 and MIN --6.8

PRC now 125% of normal, the second week averaged 116% and was almost the opposite of week one with heavier amounts in the south, below average in the north.

SUN fell to 113% with this past week only 76% (456/600), the southwest was mostly overcast all week, slightly above normal values from the northwest and east.

Getting ready for Wednesday night's possible assault on the bonus values and locations which are 53 Mace, 84 Knock.

5 people have thanked this post
pauldry Registered User
#40

A temp of 13.7c was reached in Moore Park yesterday

6 people have thanked this post
M.T. Cranium Registered User
#41

Well, I finally got around to doing this update ... after three weeks ...

IMT is 4.5 C (range is 3.8 Mullingar to 5.7 Shannon) and the third week averaged 4.8 which was 0.4 below normal. It must have come up fairly sharply on Sunday 21st as the IMT for the day was 7.8 C). I think this might bounce up and down but stay in the 4's probably a bit higher at the end than now, perhaps 4.7 or 4.8 would be favoured (by latest guidance).

MAX now 13.7 and MIN remains --6.8.

PRC is now up to 158% as the third week was a soaker at 224% of normal. Even with 50% in the last ten days this will finish around 120% so most of us will be hoping that it stays rather dry.

SUN is now closer to average at 107%, the past week had 95% (572/600). This is about where it might finish up as there will be some sun at times and it doesn't take much in January.

If no further change to max and min, and my estimates are close, also bonus settled by earlier events, then highest score I can see would be Con around 87 but some of you will be close and might edge past Con if your PRC or SUN forecasts are better than my estimates. Mickger844posts has almost the same total score from my estimates (this could all change of course, just saying). NormaL would score about 80 and could edge up to meet Con if the IMT is closer to 5.1 or above. Lots of fairly decent looking scores anyway. As a group we are quite good at this, the power of many minds sort of a thing ...

6 people have thanked this post
pauldry Registered User
#42

13.8c Roches Pt.

Tomorrows Januarys final attempt at a max. Last few days too cool

1 person has thanked this post
M.T. Cranium Registered User
#43

Update through four weeks ...

IMT on 5.4 with this past week quite mild, 8.1 C (+2.8 deg). Should finish close to 5.2 C.

PRC still very high at 153% with this past week near 140%. Likely to finish near 150%.

SUN limping home near normal, 103% now with this past week at 92% (553/600). May rebound to above 105%.

4 people have thanked this post
M.T. Cranium Registered User
#44

IMT on first glance has finished at 5.4 C but I am going to check that tomorrow when the MS comes out as I thought it should drop a little from 28th value. Yesterday the IMT was 4.6 so perhaps that wasn't enough to push it down more than a second decimal. Anyway, probably was 5.4, will confirm it.

Will check MS also for PRC and SUN, my estimates are 150% and 105%. Any value much over 140% for PRC would trigger minimum progression rules anyway, as the highest forecast we had was 134% (waterways).

Scoring should be available some time tomorrow evening.

3 people have thanked this post
M.T. Cranium Registered User
#45

The Monthly Summary confirmed all values used except for SUN which came in higher, and I realized why after the fact, when I estimated the impact of the last three days I overlooked the 29th which had about five hours at all sites. So the three-day period had about 170% of normal sunshine, boosting the overall average to 110% of normal.

This will generally change all scores up or down by one point. So here's the revised table.


January 2018 scoring

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Bonus ________ TOTALS

Confirmed values _____5.4_ 13.8_--6.8_152_110__53 Mace_84 Knock

waterways ____ (-1) __ 18 _ 19 _ 17 _ 14*_ 08 ___ 03 01 _ 02 00 _ 82-1=81
Tae laidir ____________20 _ 15 _ 15 _ 13*_ 07 ___ 04 00 _ 04 00 ____ 78
mickger844posts ______19 _ 17 _ 18 _ 06*_ 09 ___ 03 01 _ 02 00 ____ 75

NormaL __________ 22 _ 17 _ 18_ 02*_ 08___03 01 _ 04 00____ 75

Pauldry______________23 _ 15 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ___ 03 00 _ 02 00 ____ 73
MrSkinner ___________ 24 _ 19 _ 10 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 02 00 _ 01 00 ____ 73

Con Sensus __________18 _ 17 _ 18 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 04 00 _ 02 00 ____ 73

Dacogawa ____ (-1) ___18 _ 19 _ 19 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 04 00 _ 01 00 _72-1=71
Jpmarn _____________ 14 _ 17 _ 17 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 02 00 _ 03 00 ____ 71
dasa29 _____________ 21 _ 17 _ 12 _ 10*_ 08 ___ 01 00 _ 00 00 ____ 69
sunflower3 __________ 19 _ 16 _ 12 _ 10*_ 07 ___ 03 00 _ 01 00 ____ 68
Rikand ______________21 _ 17 _ 12 _ 01*_ 08 ___ 02 01 _ 04 00 ____ 66
Bsal ________________20 _ 00 _ 18 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 04 00 _ 01 00 ____ 63
DOCARCH ___________ 14 _ 17 _ 17 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 04 00 _ 01 00 ____ 63
M.T. Cranium ________ 13 _ 15 _ 08 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 03 01 _ 04 00 ____ 60
Kindred Spirit. ________20 _ 01 _ 18 _ 07*_ 06 ___ 03 00 _ 04 00 ____ 59
sryanbruen __________ 17 _ 14 _ 08 _ 06*_ 06 ___ 03 01 _ 01 00 ____ 56
Lumi _______________ 16 _ 17 _ 03 _ 06*_ 06 ___ 03 00 _ 03 00 ____ 54
Rameire _____ (-3) ___ 19 _ 16 _ 01 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 03 00 _ 02 00 _55-3=52
john mac ____________20 _ 01 _ 11 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 01 01 _ 01 01 ____ 48
sdanseo _____________11 _ 15 _ 00 _ 03*_ 10 ___ 04 01 _ 01 00 ____ 45
200motels ___ (-25) ___18 _ 12 _ 19 _ 02*_ 05 ___ 04 00 _ 01 00 _61-25=36
Joe Public ___________ 00 _ 18 _ 00 _ 03*_ 09 ___ 02 00 _ 03 00 ____ 35
JCXBXC ____ (-20) ____16 _ 18 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 ___ 03 01 _ 04 01^_54-20=34
BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___00 _ 14 _ 00 _ 01*_ 08 ___ 01 01 _ 04 00 _29-2=27

____________________________________________________________

* Minimum progression rule was necessary for PRC, highest forecast was 134%, did not qualify to limit boosted scores (131 to 137 would have done so).

Scoring for max wind and location was based on 4 points for wind values and 1 for correct location, disregard discussion below forecast entries as that was based on a different scoring assumption. Nobody qualified for superbonus scoring (one did but was capped at 8 points by later entry than events, ^symbol indicates one point not counted when 8 points reached).

Assuming all other variables are confirmed by MS, the SUN scoring is based on 105% and will be adjusted where necessary after final reporting.

Actual forecasts

FORECASTER ________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Max winds and gusts

MrSkinner ___________ 5.3 _13.7 _--5.8 _115 _115 ___ 49 Malin ___68 Malin
Pauldry______________5.2 _14.3 _--6.5 _108 _101 ___ 50 Malin ___75 Mace

NormaL _____________ 5.1 _13.5 _--7.0 _100 _100 ___50 (*) ____ 80 (**)

rikand ______________ 5.0 _13.5 _--6.0 _090 _120 ___ 58 Mace ___85 Sherk
dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _13.5 _--6.0 _120 _100 ___ 45 Sherk __ 55 Malin
Tae laidir ____________4.9 _14.2 _--7.3 _130 _094 ___ 53 Malin ___82 Mace
john mac ____________4.9 _12.9 _--5.9 _105 _098 ___ 46 Mace ___70 Knock
Kindred Spirit. ________4.9 _12.9 _--7.0 _112 _092 ___ 50 Malin ___80 Bel
Bsal ________________4.9 _12.8 _--7.0 _125 _102 ___ 53 Bel ____ 71 Mace
mickger844posts ______4.8 _13.5 _--7.0 _110 _115 ___ 56 Mace ___72 Mace
sunflower3 __________ 4.8 _13.4 _--6.0 _120 _095 ___ 55 Malin ___68 Malin
Rameire _____ (-3) ___ 4.8 _13.4 _--4.9 _115 _089 ___ 55 Malin ___72 Val

Con Sensus __________4.7 _13.5 _--7.0 _110 _100 ___ 52 Malin ___ 75 Malin

Dacogawa ____ (-1) ___4.7 _13.7 _--6.9 _105 _097 ___ 52 Malin ___ 69 Malin
waterways ____ (-1) __ 4.7 _13.7 _--7.1 _134 _100 ___ 51 Mace ___ 75 Bel
200motels ___ (-25) ___4.7 _13.0 _--6.9 _100 _084 ___ 54 Malin ___70 Val
sryanbruen __________ 4.6 _13.2 _--8.0 _110 _090 ___ 50 Mace ___70 Malin
Lumi _______________ 4.5 _14.1 _--8.5 _110 _090 ___ 51 Malin ___79 Sherk
JCXBXC ____ (-20) ____4.5 _13.6 _--9.0 _110 _090 ___ 50 Mace ___ 84 Knock
DOCARCH ___________ 4.3 _14.1 _--7.1 _085 _110 ___ 52 Malin ___69 Malin
Jpmarn _____________ 4.3 _13.5 _--6.5 _125 _090 ___ 58 Bel ____ 78 DubA
M.T. Cranium ________ 4.2 _13.3 _--8.0 _115 _119 ___ 55 Mace ___80 Malin
sdanseo ____________ 4.0 _13.3 _--9.8 _103 _111 ___ 53 Mace ___70 Bel
Joe Public ___________ 2.9 _13.6 _--9.4 _102 _115 ___ 57 Bel ____ 78 Malin
BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___1.7 _14.4 _-13.2 _090 _120 ___ 60 Mace __ 86 Mace

____________________________________________________________

Congrats to waterways, tae laidir and mickger844posts for leading the way in the first contest of 2018, generally good scoring results for most.

7 people have thanked this post

Want to share your thoughts?

Login here to discuss!