ancapailldorcha Moderator
#1

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

New posters, please read the forum charter before posting.

Regards,

The Politics Mods.

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Leroy42 Registered User
#2

Sethanon said:
0.4% is a small hit to take over 5 years tbh. Leaving will always cause issues, but as I say it won't be England that suffers, it will push that onto the rest of the UK because it can.


Its 0.4% each year, cumulative. At that is predicated on a soft Brexit. Davies won't release want the actual effects might be.

Sethanon said:
3bn is small in the scheme of the UKs affairs, as a once of expenditure this is completely irrelevant to them.


Ask your company to invest significant amounts of money to replace a system that isn't broken and for which you can't guarantee the outcome ans see how you get on.

But what are you spending the money on?


Sethanon said:
Realistically this is a non issue, easily resolved. Remember all main hubs in the UK have customs facilities as they actually have imports from outside of the EU!

Its not about the tariffs, they need to be checked and that causes delays. You need somewhere to park all the trucks etc.
And the delay costs money. One area that has been talked about is rerouting Irish>Continent exports via France rather than across the UK. That in itself would cause hardship for certain hauliers.


Sethanon said:
I dont think the UK see the NI border as an issue, They will happily put it in the sea. A hard border on land is their last resort.


So basically agreeing to split up the UK! I am sure Scotland will feel very welcome based on how quickly London will dump NI.


Sethanon said:
This is not the case at all, when it comes to goods, there is no delay in moving them through the EU. Only a tariff. As all UK companies already comply with the regulations and ISO they will have an even easier time moving products.
We do not have trade deals with most Asian countries yet we have their products here in abundance. its simply a tariff implied.


As above, regs are maintained throughout the EU by various bodies that can sign off before the goods even leave teh farm/factory. That won't be the case anymore and as such the goods will have to be checked => increase in travel time and costs.


Sethanon said:
Some will be lost, but if they are it will be to cheaper non EU countries most likely. I deal with companies like Jaguar and Ford on a weekly basis and they will not leave. They will huff and puff until they convince the government to give them money, thats all they are after.


Ok so how much will leave and how much will these companies that will stay need to stay? You need to add that to the costs. And who is going to pay for this? Are you going to pay higher taxes? Are you prepared to pay higher prices for your goods?

Sethanon said:
Simply put, the logistics of a car manufacturer are finely tuned and take years, they do not hold stock, items arrive constantly to be delivered directly to the live line. This is the logistical precision they use. The only way these companies would leave england is if the EU puts a massive tariff on UK exports. (which is unlikely for the car industry especially as they are lobbying hard in germany for a soft brexit. and car manufacturers have a massive pull, they are the forefront of all manufacturing advancement after all.)


I didn't say they will up and leave, but why would they continue to reinvest when they can have everything they currently have in France and not have to worry about the potential customs issues.

Sethanon said:
So yeah its not going to be perfect at all. but England will be fine in the long run. its all of us on the fringe that will suffer because like it or not, we rely on those bollaxs


Again, nobody is saying that UK will not be fine, it is not going to collapse. But we have already some indicators as to the likely negatives effects and this is with the bonus of exchange rate while still in the EU. I have pointed out some of the costs, you have simply waved them away as nothing.

But what are the benefits to Brexit. So far all you have provided is a mitigation on the negatives

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Leroy42 Registered User
#3

solodeogloria said:
Good afternoon!

From the sounds of it it looks like mirroring rules rather than formal single market and customs union membership. This would be a similar approach to options mentioned in the Government's position paper.

If that's what they are proposing it isn't ideal but it is better than formal membership in terms of the freedoms gained.

It seems like freedom of movement wouldn't be required, nor would declining to do free trade deals with other countries but they would be constrained in areas where the UK is mirroring regulations.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria


So the UK are going to 'mirror' rules that they will have no input into making. How is that better than you have it now? UK complain that EU doesn't listen to them and so they leave so that the EU doesn't have to listen to them!

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BoatMad Registered User
#4

lawred2 said:
They are also too busy to actually fulfill their democratic responsibilities in the Northern Assembly.


naw, its the usual. make them sweat a bit before you see them tactic

BoatMad Registered User
#5

anyway the rolling train wreck that is Brexit continues , this isn't the last of it either

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Buttonftw Registered User
#6

Anomander said:
I live in London and if you ask anyone here they would happily dump both Scotland and NI. There was genuine anger here when the Scots voted to remain. They are not wanted here. Little England mentality is a lot bigger than people think. The English would go it alone if they had the choice.

FYI I would prefer if Cameron had stayed. He would have gone for a softer approach, plus he hated the D.U.P. but he ran off the coward.

I'm holding out for a general election and a Labour victory.


There's a reason why Labour offered the Scots a Parliament, the Welsh an assembly but divided England into regional assemblies.

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WomanSkirtFan8 Registered User
#7

BoatMad said:
anyway the rolling train wreck that is Brexit continues , this isn't the last of it either


very true. It's going to get a whole lot worse for the UK from here on in.

Leroy42 Registered User
#8

WomanSkirtFan8 said:
very true. It's going to get a whole lot worse for the UK from here on in.


And thats the truth. In effect Phase 1 should have been pretty straight forward. The EU set out their red lines right from the off. In effect this has been a negotiation of the UK with itself.

The real problems will come from the trade negotiations when the actual real world effects will start to become clearer. Can you imagine if the EU demand and end to passporting rights? Easy for the like of people living in the UK to say that we can afford to lose on NI, but trade talks will mean that certain parts (sectors of the economy etc) will lose out more than others whilst other win.

BoatMad Registered User
#9

WomanSkirtFan8 said:
very true. It's going to get a whole lot worse for the UK from here on in.


Well The UK is of course realising that (a) it desperately wants a trade deal with the EU , (b) the EU is holding all the cards and (c) The Tories are in disarray

I suspect even politically getting any deal through the Brexit buffoons will derail May

The point is that its now obvious the UK is desperate for a deal , it would have walked away by this stage otherwise, instead its pledged 50bn and evener regulatory alignment , that will largely put it in the " Norway " group. It has just let everyone see its hand

brickster69 Registered User
#10

Just joined up today, followed the thread yesterday and found it interesting to get the ROI views on things. I'm from the UK and never took much in interest Politics before. Looking forward to expressing my views here.

A bit of a messy situation overall, but i really do not see why the ROI and the UK cannot sort this border out between themselves. Both sides have stated they do not want a hard border, and the only people who will put a hard border in place is the EU themselves.
For certain now, at some point in the future, ROI goods going into NI will attract tariffs, likewise with the UK and vice a versa. With goods being exported to the EU, if going through the UK they will attract tariffs also.

 I do not see any problem with ROI people visiting the UK or working here, same with any EU resident which is probably the same for you guys. Naturally, we do detest having to accept people to come here, bring the family and live happily ever after on benefits.

Surely there was no need to involve a third party in all of this.

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GalwayMark Registered User
#11

Sorry but this is only leading us down one path of the United Ireland.

Baron de Charlus Up to my neck in the Eurosausage
#12

There's no third party. Ireland is an EU member. EU position = Irish position.

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irelandrover Registered User
#13

brickster69 said:
Just joined up today, followed the thread yesterday and found it interesting to get the ROI views on things. I'm from the UK and never took much in interest Politics before. Looking forward to expressing my views here.

A bit of a messy situation overall, but i really do not see why the ROI and the UK cannot sort this border out between themselves. Both sides have stated they do not want a hard border, and the only people who will put a hard border in place is the EU themselves.
For certain now, at some point in the future, ROI goods going into NI will attract tariffs, likewise with the UK and vice a versa. With goods being exported to the EU, if going through the UK they will attract tariffs also.

 I do not see any problem with ROI people visiting the UK or working here, same with any EU resident which is probably the same for you guys. Naturally, we do detest having to accept people to come here, bring the family and live happily ever after on benefits.

Surely there was no need to involve a third party in all of this.


Because its not just between themselves. It will be an EU border with a country not in the EU.

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Leroy42 Registered User
#14

The brexit vote was basically done on the basis of stopping EU citizens have the freedom to come and work in the UK.

Ireland is a member of the EU, there is no third party. Just the UK and EU. Luckily for Ireland we are a member of a bigger club as it is clear that the UK would take little head our Ireland if they weren't being forced to. Ireland and the UK had already sorted out the border, but then the UK decided it didn't matter too much so wants to change the plan.

The border is not only an EU issue. Another of the main points in the Brexit campaign was securing the borders and taking back control. It is simply not feasible to then leave a 300 mile stretch of open border into your country.

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BoatMad Registered User
#15


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Just joined up today, followed the thread yesterday and found it interesting to get the ROI views on things. I'm from the UK and never took much in interest Politics before. Looking forward to expressing my views here.

A bit of a messy situation overall, but i really do not see why the ROI and the UK cannot sort this border out between themselves. Both sides have stated they do not want a hard border, and the only people who will put a hard border in place is the EU themselves.
For certain now, at some point in the future, ROI goods going into NI will attract tariffs, likewise with the UK and vice a versa. With goods being exported to the EU, if going through the UK they will attract tariffs also.

I do not see any problem with ROI people visiting the UK or working here, same with any EU resident which is probably the same for you guys. Naturally, we do detest having to accept people to come here, bring the family and live happily ever after on benefits.


Couple of things

Firstly trade does over and back the NI border with no , repeat No regulatory impediment, That can only continue if both sides maintain " alignment " , Thats means the EU and UK not Ireland and the UK

ROI goods going into NI will attract tariffs, likewise with the UK and vice a versa. With goods being exported to the EU, if going through the UK they will attract tariffs also.


The UK does 30 bn in trade with the republic and both countries do 60bn overall with each other, this is a serious issue for the UK never mind ireland . Tariffs reduce trade

I do not see any problem with ROI people visiting the UK or working here, same with any EU resident which is probably the same for you guys. Naturally, we do detest having to accept people to come here, bring the family and live happily ever after on benefits


You realise that ireland has regulations on its citizens living , voting and working in the UK that predate the EU, They will continue to exist after Brexit . There is no proposal from the UK to control irish people the issue is other EU nationals

The issue is how Ireland with a land border with the UK , controls ( or doesnt control ) non Irish or British movement over that land border ,

There has never been people control on the Irish border with NI, the Irish Gov will not introduce it , it would be politically impossible , hence it would be the UK that would have to " seal " that border. Can you imagine the violence that would return as a result

I appreciate your perspective , but it goes too show how terribly terribly mis informed you are of the EU , ireland and NI

There is also the issue that the Northern ireland border has 900 crossings, more so the almost all the rest of the EU combined

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