BLIZZARD7 Registered User
#16

3.8_ 2.7_ 4.9 ___120 _090 _120___ 15.1 _ -16.5 ___44(cm) ___ 81 (kts)

*I realise I'm late, I meant to post in last night but forgot, throwing this in in the off chance you will accept, no problem if its too late though.

M.T. Cranium Registered User
#17

Okay, will accept but contest is now closed to further entries ... table of forecasts being prepared. Anyone reading this and entered can edit to 0300h, that's when the finalized table will hit the internet.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#18

Table of forecasts -- winter 2017-18 contest

These forecasts are arranged in order of mean winter temperature (I have calculated those and mean winter precip from your monthly forecasts). See previous post, due to extended deadline and one slightly late entry, anyone has the option to edit any forecast to 0300h. Post or edit (I will check back for edits).


FORECASTER__IMT (D,J,F and mean)__PRC (D,J,F and mean)__MAX _ MIN _ SNOW _ GUST

Pauldry ______ 6.0_6.1_6.6_6.23___105_100_098_101.0 ___ 15.2_ --7.2__ 10.0 _ 85

waterways ____5.6_5.7_5.6_5.63___110_100_080_096.7 ___ 16.4_ --9.7__ 18.0 _ 75

john mac _____4.8_5.8_6.1_5.57___097_094_110_100.3 ___ 16.0_ --9.9__ 15.0 _ 74

Oterra _______5.5_5.0_6.0_5.50___090_100_110_100.0 ___ 13.0_ --9.0 ___8.5 _ 73

Doddles88 ____4.9_5.0_6.3_5.40___080_105_100_095.0 ___ 13.8_ --6.8 ___4.0 _ 97

MrSkinner ____ 5.1_5.2_5.3_5.20___091_092_093_092.0 ___ 15.9_ --6.6__23.0 _ 70

sryanbruen ___ 5.0_4.6_5.9_5.17___070_110_120_100.0 ___ 15.0_ --8.0___2.0 _ 70

bsal _________4.9_5.1_5.3_5.10___095_112_105_104.0 ___ 14.8_ --7.0___5.0 _ 74

Sunflower3 ___ 4.8_4.4_5.5_4.90___095_090_110_098.3 ___ 15.1_ --7.0___6.0 _ 78

cdev _________4.4_4.3_5.6_4.77___078_122_118_106.0 ___ 15.2_-10.5___7.5 _ 82

M.T.Cranium __ 4.5_4.2_5.5_4.73___080_120_100_100.0 ___ 15.7_-11.5__ 32.5 _ 80

Rikand _______5.0_4.0_4.5_4.50___090_100_100_096.6 ___ 16.0_-10.0__ 25.0 _ 85

sdanseo ______4.4_2.9_4.5_3.93___094_085_109_096.0 ___ 14.2_ --7.5___8.0 _ 79

Blizzard7 _____ 3.8_2.7_4.9_3.80___120_090_120_110.0 ___ 15.1_-16.5__ 44.0 _ 81


Consensus ____ 4.9_4.6_5.5_5.00___093_102_104_099.7 ___ 15.1_--9.1__ 15.0 _ 79

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#19

Scoring update for December

IMT for December was 5.6, and PRC was 108%.

MAX so far 14.5 and MIN so far --6.6

Very little snow yet at Casement, and max gust of 84 knots on 2 January (Knock).

Scores for each monthly temperature and precip are worth 5 points. These are the scores for December, plus a provisional score for the wind gust (10 points) which might well hold up through the rest of the winter. In any case, only one forecast was more than 1 kt above 84 knots, marked * in the scoring, and this one could improve but almost all the others would go down by a maximum of one point if higher values came in; if the higher value was 85 to 91 knots the two high scores would hold up, lower values in that range would allow some other scores to remain where they are.

Everything else looks to be subject to change or unknown yet.

FORECASTER__IMT Dec ___ PRC Dec ___ GUST ____ Total to date

Pauldry ______ 4.0_______ 4.5 _______ 10 ________ 18.5

Rikand _______3.0________2.0 _______ 10 ________15.0

waterways ____5.0_______ 5.0 _______ 04 ________ 14.0

Blizzard7 _____ 0.0_______ 4.0 _______ 08 ________12.0


__Consensus __2.0________2.5 _______ 06 ________ 10.5


Sunflower3 ___1.5________3.5 _______ 05 ________10.0

cdev _________0.5_______ 0.5 _______ 09 ________10.0

sdanseo ______0.5________3.0 _______ 06 ________ 9.5

M.T.Cranium __ 1.0_______ 1.0 _______ 07 _________9.0

John mac _____1.5_______ 4.0 _______ 03 _________8.5

Oterra _______4.5________2.0 _______ 02 _________8.5

bsal _________2.0________3.5 _______ 03 _________8.5

MrSkinner ____ 3.5_______ 2.5 _______ 00 _________6.0

Doddles88 ____2.0_______ 1.0 _______ 01* ________4.0

sryanbruen ___ 3.0_______ 0.0 _______ 00 _________3.0

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#20

Scoring updates for January, 2018

The January IMT was 5.4 and the PRC was 152% which was well above any of our forecasts. I have added provisional scores for two items, first being a colder February than any of our forecasts, which is hypothetical but seems possible, and a MAX of 14.5 as January (13.8) failed to beat December and February may also fail.

These added scores should be treated as speculative. Snowfall to date at Casement is less than 2.0 cm but could increase by some unknown amount this month. The previously scored maximum gust has not changed since 2 January.

The Feb precip is likely a bit more of an unknown, and the range of possible Feb IMT values that confirm my estimates (4.6 or lower) gives a range of outcomes for the winter mean temperature, if close to 4.6, then 5.1 will be the result, if say 3.0 then the mean will fall to 4.7, so no provisional scores there.

MIN has fallen slightly to --6.8, but there's a good chance of this being lowered during February.

These are the scores either confirmed or looking likely:


FORECASTER__IMT D J F _______ PRC D J __ MAX __ GUST ____ Total to date


Pauldry ______ 4.0_2.5_0.0_____ 4.5_2.5__ 07 ____ 10 ________ 30.5
bsal _________ 2.0_4.5_3.5_____ 3.5_4.0__ 10 ____ 03 ________ 30.5

Rikand _______3.0_0.5_5.0_____ 2.0_2.5__ 03 ____ 10 _________26.0


__Consensus __2.0_2.0_2.5_____ 2.5_2.5__ 08 ____ 06 _________25.5


cdev _________0.5_1.0_2.0_____ 0.5_5.0__ 07 ____ 09 ________ 25.0

sdanseo ______0.5_0.0_5.0_____ 3.0_0.0___ 10 ___ 06 ________ 24.5

Blizzard7 _____ 0.0_0.0_4.0_____ 4.0_0.5__ 08 ____ 08 ________24.5

waterways ____5.0_4.5_2.0_____ 5.0_2.5__ 01 ____ 04 ________ 24.0

Sunflower3 ___ 1.5_1.5_2.5______3.5_0.5__ 08 ____ 05 ________22.5

M.T.Cranium __ 1.0_0.5_2.5_____ 1.0_4.5__ 05 ____ 07 ________21.5

MrSkinner ____ 3.5_5.0_3.5_____ 2.5_1.0__ 04 ____ 00 ________19.5

sryanbruen ___ 3.0_2.0_1.5_____ 0.0_3.5__ 09 ____ 00 ________19.0

Doddles88 ____2.0_3.5_0.5_____ 1.0_3.0__ 07 ____ 01*_______ 18.0

John mac _____1.5_3.5_1.0_____ 4.0_1.0__ 03 ____ 03 ________17.0

Oterra _______4.5_3.5_1.0______2.0_0.5__ 03 ____ 02 ________16.5

_____________________________________________________________

* This score can improve if a stronger gust is recorded; all others for max gust cannot change by more than 1 pt

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#21

The February IMT was 3.6 (brr, our coldest forecast was 4.5 and the coldest for JAN was 2.7, would say half a dozen of us had some inkling of a cold month ahead) and that makes the winter mean (avg) 4.87 (5.6, 5.4, 3.6).

The February PRC was 84% of normal (nice going waterways at 80%) and that makes the winter mean (avg) 114.7% (108, 152, 84).

The contest MAX period is Dec to Feb only, so with the max in Feb being 14.3, the 14.5 from December is our max (Jan was 13.8).

The contest MIN period is any day in autumn to 15th of April when the contest is declared, and that could still be determined, as the lowest at official recording sites appears to be the -7.0 at Cork on 1st of March. The coldest reading before that was --6.8 in January.

The snow at Casement finally meant something in this contest after a series of very low totals. With the help of Gaoth Laidir I have determined that the total winter seasonal snowfall there so far is 36 cm (32 from this recent event). Total snow is the sum of daily snowfalls and therefore is not strictly speaking the maximum depths of various events added together, because falling snow is usually a greater total than just the maximum depth which was 26 cm as far as we know plus about 3 from small earlier events. This may not be a final figure (and this contest element also runs to mid-April) but there is only one forecast significantly higher and that already scores well so that the only two scores that could now change would be the two highest ones changing places. So I will score that as well.

The max gust of 84 knots set early in January and scored already was never threatened in February and that element is closed in case you see a higher value in March. For the contest, we look only at Dec to Feb.

Here are the scores that we can confirm with MIN based on current value of --7.0 C so that could change, all else is confirmed except for the two highest scores in SNOW which could change places:


Current scoring in the winter forecast contest 2017-18

FORECASTER __ IMT D J F __winter__ PRC D J F __winter__MAX_MIN _ SNOW _ GUST __ Total

___ max score _5.0_5.0_5.0 _15___5.0_5.0_5.0 _ 15 ___ 10.0_10.0__ 10.0 __ 10.0 ___100.0


bsal _________ 2.0_4.5_3.5__12___3.5_4.0_3.0__13 ___ 10 __ 10 ___ 02 ___ 03 _____ 70.5

Pauldry ______ 4.0_2.5_0.0__02___4.5_2.5_4.0__12 ___ 07 __ 09 ___ 05 ___ 10 _____ 62.5


__Consensus __2.0_2.0_2.5__13___2.5_2.5_3.0__09 ___ 08 __ 06 ___ 06 ___ 06 ______62.5


cdev _________0.5_1.0_2.0__14___0.5_5.0_1.5__14 ___ 07 __ 03 ___ 04 ___ 09 _____ 61.5

M.T.Cranium __ 1.0_0.5_2.5__13___1.0_4.5_3.5__ 10 ___ 05 __ 02 ___ 10 ___ 07 _____60.0

Sunflower3 ___ 1.5_1.5_2.5__15___3.5_0.5_2.0__ 07 ___ 08 __ 10 ___ 03 ___ 05 _____59.5

Rikand _______3.0_0.5_5.0__09___2.0_2.5_3.5__ 06 ___ 03 __ 04 ___ 08 ___ 10 _____56.5

BLIZZARD7 ___ 0.0_0.0_4.0__03___4.0_0.5_1.0__15 ___ 08 __ 01 ___ 09 ___ 08 _____ 53.0

waterways ____5.0_4.5_2.0__05___5.0_2.5_5.0__ 06 ___ 01 __ 05 ___ 07 ___ 04 _____ 52.0

MrSkinner ____ 3.5_5.0_3.5__10___2.5_1.0_4.5__ 02 ___ 04 __ 08 ___ 08 ___ 00 _____52.0

sryanbruen ___ 3.0_2.0_1.5__11___0.0_3.5_1.0__ 10 ___ 09 __ 07 ___ 00 ___ 00 _____48.0

sdanseo ______0.5_0.0_5.0__04___3.0_0.0_2.5__04 ___ 10 __ 08 ___ 04 ___ 06 _____ 47.0

John mac _____1.5_3.5_1.0__06___4.0_1.0_2.0__ 11 ___ 03 __ 05 ___ 06 ___ 03 _____47.0

Oterra _______4.5_3.5_1.0__07___2.0_0.5_2.0__ 10 ___ 03 __ 06 ___ 04 ___ 02 _____ 45.5

Doddles88 ____2.0_3.5_0.5__08___1.0_3.0_3.5__ 03 ___ 07 __ 09 ___ 02 ___ 01 _____43.5

_______________________________________________________________________________________

The lead that bsal has over pauldry is safe since their MIN predictions are similar. If we get a much lower MIN then cdev, MTC and BLIZZARD7 will all move up but it would have to be a very low value for either MTC or BLIZZARD7 to pass cdev. BLIZZARD7 also has a potential to gain one point on MTC with more snow at Casement. He only needs about 2.5 cm.

This table will be either amended or confirmed depending on what happens between now and mid-April.

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