Interesting, GFS has been steady as a rock bringing in a cold easterly with almost universal ensemble support in the 192 hours + timeframe.
Caution needed through, ECM is not half as bullish.
In recent winters we have seen models show these easterlies with full ensemble support time and time again in FI only to evaporate.
In said Winters, you didn’t have things like SSW, negative NAO, minimal solar activity etc to back it up.
I see GFS seems to have cold at day 9 every day.
Its sure to arrive for the June Bank Holiday isnt it?
At least it looks like becoming dry during the preceeding timeframe which after 7 months of non stop rain will be a relief to this part of the country.
This is a decent enough position at 168 with high pressure firmly in control of the GIN (Greenland, Iceland, Norway) corridor and a chance of undercutting of our high from the Atlantic, no point looking any further to be honest.
Couldn't care less if it's 10C or -10C at this stage, so long as it's dry
GFS sticking to its guns for at least the 4th run in a row for an exceptionally cold (and snowy) FI. Astonishing charts but FI.
GFS Control run 192 - well locked in to continental cold
NAVGEM has an easterly entrenched by 168 hrs
Very much up for grabs at the moment. Maybe some movement later from the UKMO/ECM op runs (both are a little disappointing).
Good GFS ensembles this morning but still as long way to go. Hopefully it will be a mid to high latitude cold break and it won't go the way of February 2012.
GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.
It’s basically the same as the GFS 18z from last night with low pressure all over the place whilst quite a block up to the north, very messy charts .
I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!
Yeah each run just adds another day to the Date to when the easterly has an affect on Ireland.
I said I’d give it to Wednesday to see if there’s anything substantial to go on, but quickly running out of any hope with this now.
I’d say will be dropped after 18z tonight.
There are no easterlies on the GFS 12z OP, it's just a rather worse version of last night's Pub Run. If you've not noticed recently, the OP runs have been mild outliers in the ensembles - at least most of them have been.
There is no change at all on the GFS 12z ensemble mean.
Also, the ECM 00z ensembles had small upgrades for the negative NAO. They show the NAO going negative as early as Monday now.