I quoted the ECM as it's by far the best model imo, but several others are in agreement with it. The GFS consistently underestimates modification in cold outbreaks. It's an acknowledged bias.
Well to be fair he completely ruled out lowland snow for the slider last month and the last snow event we had when many low lying areas received lying snow and pics to support it. Let's wait and see.
Here's a model question - is there any reason the GFS is continued to be used as a signal of anything beyond the fact that it offers a broader range of charts for free compared to ECM? From the years I've followed this forum, I've found the GFS to be continually inaccurate even at very short ranges.
A different type of event though
That one was the result of stubborn embedded cold clashing on the edges with mobile heat
What FI models are picturing is a mobile cold which will all the time be mixing with and continually modified by ocean air which is a much different and easier I would think,predictable dynamic
Scandi High flooding cold into Europe. Possible February weather coming for Ireland.
What’s February weather !!!!!!
He means the cold air spreading into Europe could eventually make it's way to us later this month or in February
Hold your horses.....February?
I’m loving the ECM at 192 tonight,you’d swear that was a lump of polar vortex attacking from the northwest and with pressure rising over Greenland ,there’s oodles of opportunities once it passes through
But Ill say no more because I’ll jinx it like last time
Well i would have more faith in it when its not showing an easterly. If what you are suggesting comes off i will have to seriously consider taking a short holiday back home!
what a tasty looking chart.
The GFS ushers in a new ice-age, deep into FI
The ECM looks good for some further colder shots, but by day nine the pv is rearing its big head over Canada. We have to just hope the GFS is on to something, sticks with it, and that the ecm catches on to it in future runs.
Hmm the models don't look as good this morning for cold. The second half of Jan curse about to strike again? ( Little in the way of decent cold spells in the second half of Jan for many years,)
Might as well get this thread going again.
After what will be a disturbed week the Atlantic seems to run out of steam and become very slack and sluggish with not much happening by next weekend .... and THAT high seems to be weaker. Theres very cold air over Europe which the Atlantic will be unable to blast away by the look of this chart. Quiet sun, quiet Atlantic?
Not a great chart but not raging zonality either!
edit: The Atlantic does get more active in later runs buts that way out in FI. The has to be a pattern change sooner or later from this disturbed spell that has gone on for weeks?