Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#631

nacho libre said:
The more detailed analysis posted earlier by GL is concerning for snowfans but at that distance out into FI there will be many changes
I’d imagine sustained escapes of super cold out of NA would eventually lower mid Atlantic 850 temps still further
But we don’t have those
North America is warming up


It's a analysis based on one model while ignoring the other. He might well be right about the gfs, we'll see
The flow as currently depicted will have some potent arctic air in the mix, which should see some areas in the north and west, away from high ground, having modest accumlations of snow for a day or two before the airmass gets modified too much.

edit: Actually, to be fair, it's an analysis based on his own intuition and experience in his chosen field, with just a reference to the ECM, which echoes his own thoughts on next week. I hope he is wrong though


I quoted the ECM as it's by far the best model imo, but several others are in agreement with it. The GFS consistently underestimates modification in cold outbreaks. It's an acknowledged bias.

#632

Well to be fair he completely ruled out lowland snow for the slider last month and the last snow event we had when many low lying areas received lying snow and pics to support it. Let's wait and see.

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MJohnston Registered User
#633

Here's a model question - is there any reason the GFS is continued to be used as a signal of anything beyond the fact that it offers a broader range of charts for free compared to ECM? From the years I've followed this forum, I've found the GFS to be continually inaccurate even at very short ranges.

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George Sunsnow Registered User
#634

Shedbebreezy said:
Well to be fair he completely ruled out lowland snow for the slider last month and the last snow event we had when many low lying areas received lying snow and pics to support it. Let's wait and see.


A different type of event though
That one was the result of stubborn embedded cold clashing on the edges with mobile heat
What FI models are picturing is a mobile cold which will all the time be mixing with and continually modified by ocean air which is a much different and easier I would think,predictable dynamic

Captain Snow Registered User
#635

Scandi High flooding cold into Europe. Possible February weather coming for Ireland.


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mahoney_j Registered User
#636

Captain Snow said:
Scandi High flooding cold into Europe. Possible February weather coming for Ireland.




What’s February weather !!!!!!

kod87 Registered User
#637

mahoney_j said:
What’s February weather !!!!!!


He means the cold air spreading into Europe could eventually make it's way to us later this month or in February

JCX BXC Registered User
#638

Hold your horses.....February?

George Sunsnow Registered User
#639

I’m loving the ECM at 192 tonight,you’d swear that was a lump of polar vortex attacking from the northwest and with pressure rising over Greenland ,there’s oodles of opportunities once it passes through
But Ill say no more because I’ll jinx it like last time

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nacho libre Registered User
#640

Well i would have more faith in it when its not showing an easterly. If what you are suggesting comes off i will have to seriously consider taking a short holiday back home!



what a tasty looking chart.

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gabeeg Registered User
#641

The GFS ushers in a new ice-age, deep into FI

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Captain Snow Registered User
#642

gabeeg said:
The GFS ushers in a new ice-age, deep into FI





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nacho libre Registered User
#643

The ECM looks good for some further colder shots, but by day nine the pv is rearing its big head over Canada. We have to just hope the GFS is on to something, sticks with it, and that the ecm catches on to it in future runs.

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Billcarson Registered User
#644

Hmm the models don't look as good this morning for cold. The second half of Jan curse about to strike again? ( Little in the way of decent cold spells in the second half of Jan for many years,)

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Elmer Blooker Registered User
#645

Might as well get this thread going again.
After what will be a disturbed week the Atlantic seems to run out of steam and become very slack and sluggish with not much happening by next weekend .... and THAT high seems to be weaker. Theres very cold air over Europe which the Atlantic will be unable to blast away by the look of this chart. Quiet sun, quiet Atlantic?
Not a great chart but not raging zonality either!

edit: The Atlantic does get more active in later runs buts that way out in FI. The has to be a pattern change sooner or later from this disturbed spell that has gone on for weeks?

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