Meteorite58 Moderator
#1

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#2

The end of next week and over that weekend has the look of producing a lot of weather. The Jet looks to be well fired up and we seem to be moving into a very active Atlantic regime.



The charts below will go through changes over the next week but they have the makings of producing some fairly wet and windy weather towards next week end and the days after.



A long way off but as for Hurricane Irma it would seem to me that if it follows something like the path of the run below that it could pump a lot of moisture and energy northwards fueling up Depressions making their way over towards us in a couple of weeks time.

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#3

A long way off but for a few runs now a lively deepening LP showing up on the models for next weekend. First storm of the Autumn ?




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Meteorite58 Moderator
#4

If it forms it looks fast moving, models showing it could easily go South of Ireland, taking the winds towards the S of Engalnd / France, and moving into the N sea where it might deepen to it's lowest pressure, will see, lots of twists and turns no doubt.


https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/904227594551402496

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#5

Looking through the charts and looks like moving into a windy weekend with the main models showing a deep area of LP close to Ireland around Sun /Mon, too far out to pinpoint . There has been evidence from the models over the last couple of days of potential for an unsettled period from around next Sun / Mon through to Weds / Thurs with possibly a succession of deep areas of LP passing close to the country. The charts below will change no doubt in timing and tracking but giving an idea of what is showing at the moment .

The Jet charts look very fueled up at times over the next Week or so and passing over us at times.








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Donegal Storm Registered User
#6

Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#7

Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend


Yea looking through the models they are all pointing to potentially rough weather over the weekend. The GFS which was a bit all over the place seems to have come back in line with the other models which have been quite consistent highlighting this deepening LP around Sun / Mon.

Fri Sat NW winds and blustery leading into potentially very windy or stormy on Sun into Mon. At this stage most of the winds showing up along the Atlantic seaboard and later the S coasts. Looks cool and showery and possibly quite wet on Sun. Certainly no Indian Summer in sight.

All subject to change of course being 114 - 120 hrs away.

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squarecircles Registered User
#8

strong winds possible next friday on the 00z and 06z GFS





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Donegal Storm Registered User
#9

We can dream



Some interesting model output at the moment though with Jose coming into the north Atlantic mid week as potentially a very strong storm, hopefully it'll kickstart a pattern change

This chart for Wednesday looks interesting as well with potential for an active front

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#10

The models are a bit all over the place the latter part of next week, probably as a result of trying to figure out where Jose will end up and how it's energy will disperse. The GFS has been showing a very deep vigorous depression ( 963 hPa ) around next Fri Sat ( very wet too ) although the other models dont show it as deep and holding it well away from Ireland . The run below shows Jose skirting by the E coast of the USA and regaining strength 940 hPa ??? making it's way up towards Iceland . The Jet looks very strong at times .Will be interesting watching the track and strength to see what transpires.

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#11

Next Friday / Saturdays deep depression shown to stay well off the coast in the latest runs by the three main models. Looks like we will be clipped by some frontal rain and winds ( possibly heavy rain I would think ).


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Donegal Storm Registered User
#12

ECMWF still hinting at this, gets into motion around 168z, hopefully its actually on to something

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#13

Just going to put up these charts here to see how accurate the ECM might be ( been doing very well lately ). Long long way off but Hurricane Maria is forecast to veer off to the NW around the weekend and then track Northwestwards off the E cost of the US, possibly interacting with the remnants of Jose , the ECM then shows it taking a track towards Ireland around Fri / Sat 30th ( at this stage an extra tropical storm perhaps and if it did come near our shores it would probably contain a mild humid airmass ). Not beyond the bounds of possibility yet so much could change in the mean time.



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Donegal Storm Registered User
#14

Donegal Storm said:
ECMWF still hinting at this, gets into motion around 168z, hopefully its actually on to something


Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#15

Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead


So hard to keep track of the models at the moment. They keep chopping and changing more so now as the seasons change and from the energy being released by all the Tropical activity. Saw your post Donegal Storm about Hurricane Maria in the other thread. It seems to take a slow moving track for about 7 days off the E coast of the USA and then the GFS has it as probably an extra tropical storm hurtling across the Atlantic until it arrives at the S of Ireland and gets absorbed into another area of LP and does a a bit of a dance over Ireland, all the time strengthening around Tues 3 -4 Oct , a full 12 days away. Makes for an Interesting chart to look at but yes probably looking completely different in another couple of runs. Will Keep an eye on it to be sure though




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