Shanotheslayer Registered User
#1

Hi All,

GAMEWEEK 2

I think we had a thread similar to this last year were the bookies odds where posted for the chances of clean sheet / goal etc.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/16/clean-sheet-probabilities-gameweek-2/

The above link is a sum of the probability of each team to keep a clean sheet. Thus helping you choose your defenders in those close 50-50 picks.

United lead the way with a 56.29% chance to keep a clean sheet, while Everton sit at the bottom with an 11.25% chance.

Will be using this thread for goalscorer probabilities also as it's just easier to have a running thread for odds.

All feedback appreciated or if you think we could add more information let me know.

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Scorpion Sting The sting is in the tail
#2

Nice one Shano. Assist odds would be handy to know as well I think but do they give odds on a lot of players or only a select few like KDB, Ozil etc?

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Shanotheslayer Registered User
#3

Scorpion Sting said:
Nice one Shano. Assist odds would be handy to know as well I think but do they give odds on a lot of players or only a select few like KDB, Ozil etc?


We've been looking into that and I know for a fact for big games bookies give odds for all players. I've seen it myself personally. However we're currently unsure if they do it for all premier league games. I suppose even if they did just do the big players it would at least help somewhat. I'll hopefully have more information on that tomorrow or later tonight. Goalscorer odds should be up tomorrow or Friday at the latest

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Scorpion Sting The sting is in the tail
#4

Ok cool cheers Shano.

#5

I have 5 of the front 6 in the predicted TOTW so hope that you are right on the money :-)

Shanotheslayer Registered User
#6

Hi All,

Sorry for the delay.

Anytime goalscorer stats per game with also a small write-up.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/17/fantasy-premier-league-gameweek-2-odds-on-fpl/

Some may be surprised Lukaku isn't the most likely to score!

paddyg91 Registered User
#7

Blame me for compiling odds before all players were there and sleeping too much.

FHFC Registered User
#8

Only getting a look at these articles now Shayno. Good info...I'm not sure if you've seen this blog which is very similar? I followed this a lot last season.

https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies-advantage-gameweek-2-2/

Shanotheslayer Registered User
#9

FHFC said:
Only getting a look at these articles now Shayno. Good info...I'm not sure if you've seen this blog which is very similar? I followed this a lot last season.

https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies-advantage-gameweek-2-2/


Hey mate, I'll be honest I didn't hear of it until literally about two hours ago I was scrolling through reddit and I saw it, myself and Paddy spoke about it. I went through the %'s and it's amusing to see the difference the %'s. They are actually a bookie so those odds are just their own and doesn't include any other bookies.

In relation to the clean sheets it's pretty close give or take a % or two.

For goalscorers they don't add any defenders which I find strange considering many people look for an attacking defender. With myself and Paddy gathering data to compile assist chances also, I feel we will provide more of an edge, albeit it may take a bit a time.

We'll be able to compile a clean sheets/assists/goalscorers meaning that if we can work out odds on defenders likely to assist it will be a massive gain.

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FHFC Registered User
#10

Shanotheslayer said:
Hey mate, I'll be honest I didn't hear of it until literally about two hours ago I was scrolling through reddit and I saw it, myself and Paddy spoke about it. I went through the %'s and it's amusing to see the difference the %'s. They are actually a bookie so those odds are just their own and doesn't include any other bookies.

In relation to the clean sheets it's pretty close give or take a % or two.

For goalscorers they don't add any defenders which I find strange considering many people look for an attacking defender. With myself and Paddy gathering data to compile assist chances also, I feel we will provide more of an edge, albeit it may take a bit a time.

We'll be able to compile a clean sheets/assists/goalscorers meaning that if we can work out odds on defenders likely to assist it will be a massive gain.


Yeah I think the extra innovations you have and are planning are good.

Are you developing your own algorithm for assist chances?

Shanotheslayer Registered User
#11

FHFC said:
Yeah I think the extra innovations you have and are planning are good.

Are you developing your own algorithm for assist chances?


We know bookies give odds on certain games, so that gives us an idea of players chances of getting assists. If we can find an average over a number of X games played we'd work from there.

We're generally quite good at guessing odds before they are up on site. We also will have to take into consideration that bookies assists odds are far stricter than Fantasy Football assists for example - winning a penalty is an assist in FF but not in the bookies. So that will be a huge factor.

Edit: While also taking into account FFscout pick an XI based on what they believe will be max points and don't stick to the rules of how many mid's/striker's I'm doing my own personal piece trying to pick a team weekly but sticking to the rules and posting prices etc

FHFC Registered User
#12

Shanotheslayer said:
We know bookies give odds on certain games, so that gives us an idea of players chances of getting assists. If we can find an average over a number of X games played we'd work from there.

We're generally quite good at guessing odds before they are up on site. We also will have to take into consideration that bookies assists odds are far stricter than Fantasy Football assists for example - winning a penalty is an assist in FF but not in the bookies. So that will be a huge factor.

Edit: While also taking into account FFscout pick an XI based on what they believe will be max points and don't stick to the rules of how many mid's/striker's I'm doing my own personal piece trying to pick a team weekly but sticking to the rules and posting prices etc


A weekly 'mock Wildcard' team is good. Gives food for thought for transfers and team selection.

Shanotheslayer Registered User
#13

FHFC said:
A weekly 'mock Wildcard' team is good. Gives food for thought for transfers and team selection.


Not sure if you saw but mine was:

Begovic
Yoshida, Walker, Ward, Simpson
Salah, Ramsey, Alli
Jesus, Firmino, Lukaku

Bench: Elliot, Hegazi, Carroll, Doucoure

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/17/beat-the-odds-gameweek-2/ ( If you want to read the reasoning)

Edit - It's also food for thought that their bookies team got 68 points GW1 while ours got 77, so it will be interesting to see going forward. They do a wildcard team based on odds while ours is consistent from GW1 and will include transfers.

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Shanotheslayer Registered User
#14

Hi All,

Bookies odds on clean sheets for GW3 -

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/23/clean-sheet-probabilities-gameweek-3/


Spurs lead the way with 59.14% whilst Bournemouth are at the bottom 10.42% chance.

11 people have thanked this post
alchemist33 Registered User
#15

Great to have the info all in the one place. If someone could find the long-missing FPL Resources thread, Shano and Paddy's site should be on it.

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