Pretty bullish UKMO forecast. Thanks for inspiring me RobertKK to look at it.
That's just the solar cycle being normal, remember the large sunspot number spike in early September? That was very normal with very weak solar cycles if you look at the solar data history.
We're not far off of solar minimum, could be later this year but most likely 2019 will be the year of solar minimum then all the thoughts will be going towards cold Winters!
Large difference with then is the stage in solar activity we're at. That was at a time of dropping off activity in between two peaks of solar maximum, this is nearing solar minimum.
Oh I know and very much agree, Just as nacho pointed out it was blamed in 2012 for our failed easterly at very short notice albeit that wasn't close to a solar minimum. Also in Dec 2012 there was more activity than now, Im just saying I hope we don't see a real unexpected spike.
I agree re next year and beyond, I do think we are on the way towards a maunder style minimum in time, the solar activity forecasts have been continually showing activity as higher than reality over the last decade. That is another discussion altogether though.
Wasn't that just Piers Corbyn's excuse? I seem to recall him harping on about sun sausages or something as his excuse for a failed forecast
I’m losing interest in the run to run over analysis
No forecaster approaches weather looking for a particular outcome and my mindset despite being excited about what I think might happen works more like a forecaster than a particular outcome searcher
Obviously it will be disappointing if exciting outcomes don’t realize
I’m also expecting (as we all are) reams of faux output in the FI part of the models during this waiting phase and frankly have no interest in wafting through that waste of bytes
So count me out of these conversations for about a week at least
No. It was not just him. As I mentioned earlier, Stuart Rampling, the former chief forecaster on netweather, at the time cited an uptick in solar acitivty as to the reason why an easterly he championed did not come to pass. Regarding the latest solar acitivity i know we are coming close to a minimum, but a sudden rise or uptick in activity could skewer things- if it was a decisive factor back in 2012 then it could be again.
Stratosphere charts updated to the 13th February.
Small spike down at 10hPa.
Nearly going off the scale at 30hPa.
Very sensational tweet
What's sensational about it? You really don't see it everyday with cold pools going from east to west across the Atlantic than the other way round and the zonal winds being reversed.
All it shows is that this situation is highly unusual and a cold spell is around the corner.
He tweets like as if it’s definitely going to happen.
And it is.
I've been saying this for days now.
I never said snowmaggedon or extreme cold either though.
Like a cold spell (in my definition) could easily be just high pressure with severe frosts like the second half of January 2011.
Judah is not a sensationalist, he's a climatologist.
Meanwhile, it seems the 18th is still up for grabs for the high pressure ascending from the south. Posting here because it's out of FI now.
This chart is of the daily sunspot counts since August 17th last year, courtesy of Solar Weather and SILSO for the data. As has been mentioned by some posters here, the sunspot count has risen in the past week with solar activity reaching its highest level since early Autumn 2017 with this coming after a long run of spotless days from around January 21st to February 7th or so with just one little spike up around February 3rd. The fact that we're even getting these runs of spotless days - you don't have to go back far to find other runs of spotless days (look at early November for instance) - shows you how close we are to solar minimum come late 2018 or 2019. Notice the very large spike in early September 2017 I had mentioned which is very normal with very weak solar cycles such as Solar Cycles 12 (1878 to 1890), 16 (1923 to 1933), 5 (1798 to 1910) or 6 (1810 to 1823).
What has this got to do with our weather? Low solar activity Winters or Winters around/after solar minimum tend to be the coldest Winters. Examples include 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 1995-96, 1996-97, 1984-85, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1964-65, 1901-02, 1946-47, 1954-55, 1878-79.... the list goes on and on. Why is this so? Low solar activity (from a historical perspective) helps to form northern blocking over the Arctic Circle. According to a research project by Ida Johansson at Lund University in Sweden:
I highlighted a sentence there in bold because that's what I'm basically trying to say. We're at around the same phase of the solar cycle as late 2007 or early 2008.