After the no-show winter it's revenge time! Things to get dicey in the northeast United States in the next 12 hours or so...
It's one busy TAF for JFK...heavy and blowing snow starting in the next few hours.
KJFK 140542Z 1406/1512 07013KT 1SM -SN OVC015
FM140700 06016G25KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC009
FM140800 05026G33KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG OVC007
FM141000 05026G38KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV004
FM141200 05034G44KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV004
FM141600 03025G33KT 1SM +RA BR OVC007
FM141900 36025G33KT 4SM -RA BR OVC015
FM142000 32028G43KT 4SM -SN OVC015
FM142300 30024G37KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN045
FM150200 29021G31KT P6SM VCSH BKN035
FM150500 29017G25KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060
Snow starting to settle/accumulate in NYC/Times Square.
Flying in to JFK tomorrow evening, likely to be any disruption?
If you would like to take a look at the blizzards falling, EarthCam is a good site for doing so.
More marginal now for NYC.....love using that word, marginal, for other peoples cold weather/snow!
Rain being reported at JFK atm.
Seems the forecast had a last minute downgrade for NYC.
The airlines didn't seem particularly hesitant in cancelling flights.
Yes it became more mixed further north than they said. Originally they were forecasting 8- 12 inches in much of PA, but the precipitation became mixed.
I noticed early this morning that yr.no were not making much of this event for NY and seemingly, they were right.
The TAF's this morning had also changed from last night. Think it had downgraded by this morning.
Not only Ireland that can have disappointments.
The disruption that they had for a bit of snow that lasted for a few hours was rather enormous though.
Heavy snow fell all across PA except in the southeast corner and in parts of upstate NY (Binghamton had 31.0 inches), northern and western New England (Portland Maine had 18 inches), Vermont generally 15-30 inches. The storm started with 5 to 8 inches of snow in NYC which then turned to sleet and then rain, back to light snow before ending. It was seen as something of a bust in the larger cities but kept people from driving out of town which was good as many roads were closed. The total at BGM is probably an all-time record for there and had no lake effect component but further amounts on today's date may do so.
It was a tricky forecast near the coast and everyone involved was quite aware of the potential for a busted forecast, as both thickness and 850 mb temps were almost right on the marginal values at the best time for accumulating snow and a "taint" was always expected, the problem was actually with all the models showing too much total QPF which led to logic errors in terms of how much of that might be sleet, as sleet is counted as snow on a somewhat different ratio basis than actual snow. (3:1 ratio instead of the range from 8 to 15 that is normally applied to snowfall conversions from liquid equivalent).
Then there was a slight deviation west of consensus track to make things that much more error-prone.
Snowfall rates in upstate NY and VT were described by long-time weather watchers as exceptional for non-lake effect.
I 'd love if we had a bust of a forecast, yet still ended up with 5-8 inches of snow before it turned back to rain. To think some places over there got between 1 and 2 foot of snow in March, that's incredible. I'm just waiting now for our April Blizzard, that will rival April 1917 in terms of snow depth. Ahem
I'm sure there is parts of Ireland that hasnt seen 5-8 inches of snow since the 70s or 80s! most of this country hasn't seen more than an inch of snow since 2010.