nacho libre Registered User
#46

I have read the nina forcing will stop the MJO going to phase 8- which is apparently the ideal state for a high latitude block to occur
However, M.T Cranium's good friend Joe Bastardi has suggested it will go to phase 8 and as a consequence he envisions a cold outbreak over Europe. A lot of the teleconnection experts dismiss this and they deride Bastardi as a biased cold ramper.

Although, some of the later frames of the GFS output are starting to show the continent going cold. So perhaps Joe Bastardi might be on the right track.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#47

nacho libre said:
I have read the nina forcing will stop the MJO going to phase 8- which is apparently the ideal state for a high latitude block to occur
However, M.T Cranium's good friend Joe Bastardi has suggested it will go to phase 8 and as a consequence he envisions a cold outbreak over Europe. A lot of the teleconnection experts dismiss this and they deride Bastardi as a biased cold ramper.

Although, some of the later frames of the GFS output are starting to show the continent going cold. So perhaps Joe Bastardi might be on the right track.


I have no clue on the MJO but here's what I've found regarding it in the next few weeks.

MJO is heading/with speed towards east towards WESTERN PACIFIC phase 7 with off the chart amplitude , strong active amplitude. Dynamical/statistical models strongly support continued MJO activity, with enhanced phase propagating from Maritime Continent to West Pacific.
February.

This will for sure interfere in La Nina state bases , interfere + will have great impacts also for Northern Hemisphere continents sensible weather patterns !




I read somewhere - I think it was from somebody like Joe Bastardi or Michael Ventrice - that La Nina has reached its peak now and it will weaken significantly through February.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#48

SSTs across the board have been trending on the decrease.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#49

The cold SSTs that was down towards Chile and Antarctica seem to have ascended further northwards in the Pacific to form quite a cold blob in the ENSO regions.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#50

Still quite a cold equatorial Pacific.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#51

The ENSO figure for November-December-January was -1.0 which is the third tri-monthly period that the region has successfully reached the La Nina threshold. Two more tri-monthly periods at or below -0.5c and an official La Nina is designated.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#52

The CFSv2 forecasts ENSO to stay in the La Nina threshold right up until the end of the year when there's so much scatter as you'd expect given how far away it is.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#53

It seems the high ridging into the eastern seaboard is evident of La Ninas for the month of February.

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/963183322913476609

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sryanbruen Registered User
#54

Little changes in the equatorial Pacific in the past few days.

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