amandstu Registered User
#1

Today we are expecting very strong winds and rain. If I look at the charts or visit the met.ie website it gives me an approximate time of arrival and the likely areas affected.

Can I supplement this information by my own observations?

For example can I assume a spot of light rain is a presager of the storm to come?

In general how can we use our own observations to supplement the weather forecasts?

sryanbruen Registered User
#2

amandstu said:
Today we are expecting very strong winds and rain. If I look at the charts or visit the met.ie website it gives me an approximate time of arrival and the likely areas affected.

Can I supplement this information by my own observations?

For example can I assume a spot of light rain is a presager of the storm to come?

In general how can we use our own observations to supplement the weather forecasts?


I'm only seeing this now

When making forecasts, you have to use evidence like long range models to use as a guide for proving your observations.

Our own observations for a weather forecast can't just be made like that (:finger snap, you need to have something to use as a guide to prove your observation or else, you aren't supported well (doesn't necessarily mean that you'd be wrong then that's based on luck) and your observations will be an outlier with the forecasts made.

amandstu Registered User
#3

sryanbruen said:
I'm only seeing this now

When making forecasts, you have to use evidence like long range models to use as a guide for proving your observations.

Our own observations for a weather forecast can't just be made like that (:finger snap, you need to have something to use as a guide to prove your observation or else, you aren't supported well (doesn't necessarily mean that you'd be wrong then that's based on luck) and your observations will be an outlier with the forecasts made.


If you see a very distinct cold front approaching can it not be said that you have fortuitously a better(more accurate timewise) forecast that what
you would have simply from RTE ?

Are there any other ways to "top up" the met forecasts ?(obviously we can all see rain in the distance but not always know if it will be a direct hit . Also I always assume swallows skimming the ground means rain is likely )

Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#4

amandstu said:
Today we are expecting very strong winds and rain. If I look at the charts or visit the met.ie website it gives me an approximate time of arrival and the likely areas affected.

Can I supplement this information by my own observations?

For example can I assume a spot of light rain is a presager of the storm to come?

In general how can we use our own observations to supplement the weather forecasts?


If you live near an airport then TAFs give a much more detailed breakdown of the time line of weather conditions for that immediate vicinity. Which airport is nearest to you?

Iancar29 Registered User
#5

Radar?

amandstu Registered User
#6

Iancar29 said:
Radar?

Yes radar is much more fine tuned than the 3 hour snapshots on the BBC forecasts.(15 min vs 3 hours)

I suppose I am being greedy expecting anything much better but no doubt we will see improvements on that is the near /medium future as satellites get even more capable.

Still it is nice to imagine we can glean further information by looking up at the sky . It is great fun watching the weather arrive especially if it is a turn for the better.

Iancar29 Registered User
#7

You can get 5min radar updates, example netweather extra subscription.

amandstu Registered User
#8

Iancar29 said:
You can get 5min radar updates, example netweather extra subscription.

They will be marketing smart raincoats next

Ranjo Registered User
#9

I'm currently logging temperature, wind speed and pressure in my area on an hourly basis. I've put together some charts as a bit of a personalised weather view & trend.

Other than trending these values can I use them to predict anything?

For e.g. since 22/3 early morning, the air pressure has been on a consistent incline from 1000 mb to 1020 where is stands now. Is there anything I can build in, either as an actual calculation or just observational to come to some kind of conclusion?

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