M.T. Cranium Registered User
#1

The forecast situation is complex this morning and I rarely see such a wide range of solutions from various models within the first 24 hours.

There are two threats for locally strong winds that may develop, and confidence on both of these is moderate at best.

The first phase involves a rather slow-moving low and frontal wave approaching Kerry from the west. This may gain some energy during the late morning and begin to push inland and through the midlands to the east coast. If it does this, and if it also deepens as shown on one or two models, some gusty winds will develop south of its track. Potential here is less dramatic than the second phase and if this were the only item on the agenda no alert would be needed.

A second phase involves a small low that is embedded in a broad trough of low pressure that will slide in behind the southwest coast low, whatever its actual track, and some models are developing locally strong winds with this second low near the Mayo-Galway border as it approaches the west coast and moves inland some time between 2100h and 0300h (different models, different timing). I should add that some models do not resolve this feature at all and have no circulation or wind gradients of any note. But the Arpege which is running ahead of other guidance in recent weeks shows quite a strong gradient that may reach gusts ot 55 knots or 110 km/hr during the night (of 1-2 March). These stronger winds, if they develop, would likely track through roughly the same areas that saw peak winds from Doris last week. The system is much smaller and therefore weaker than Doris but could pack a punch in a narrow band from about Westport to Meath, overnight. Because it's a small system it may have little impact on the south but then again it could take a different track given this uncertainty.

I will post an update when the European model shows up around 0620h. This model was showing strong winds in the same time frame on the earlier (12z) run. The WRF model also shows windy conditions; the two leading North American models have failed to find this low and make little out of the earlier one.

What seems a bit more likely is outbreaks of heavy rain in some places during the period 0900h (southwest) to 1500h (east-central) and possibly again overnight in the north-central counties.

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Graces7 Registered User
#2

Thanks MT.

My life up here revolves around the weather and i can just sort things before the next one hits.

March coming in like a lion.

Does your last para apply TODAY please?

M.T. Cranium Registered User
#3

Euro not quite as windy on this run as the 12z earlier but similar track, a bit north of the Arpege track. So far it's really just the one model with any hints of level one wind gusts, but be aware anyway that we are tracking and monitoring.

Terrible outbreak of severe storms in the American midwest overnight, likely to continue all day moving east into New England and New York state eventually.

So if you're wondering where things stand, let's say

20% chance of severe wind gusts
40% chance of moderately strong wind gusts

about 10 to 20 per cent of the country could be affected; this will not be a widespread or long-lived event.

I will update around 1030h after seeing some new guidance that comes out 09-10h.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#4

Graces7 said:
Thanks MT.

My life up here revolves around the weather and i can just sort things before the next one hits.

March coming in like a lion.

Does your last para apply TODAY please?


More like a confused puppy than a lion, perhaps. Not quite a lamb though.

But you are in one of the few places that the Arpege model is flagging for strong wind gusts, around midnight to 0300h at this point. Not as severe as Doris, it would appear.

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#5

Great analysis MT of the complex weather unfolding today. Will be interesting to see which model handels it best.

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Meteorite58 Moderator
#6

Going by the ARPEGE looks like strong winds moving into Kerry and Clare by the mid afternoon. Very windy for a time.

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Villain Registered User
#7

New Weather warning in place:

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wicklow, Offaly, Mayo and Roscommon

Westerly winds will reach mean speeds of 55 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h this evening and at times tonight.
Issued:
Wednesday 01 March 2017 12:00
Valid:
Wednesday 01 March 2017 18:00 to Thursday 02 March 2017 09:00

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IMBACKLATER Registered User
#8

update on previous warning...

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway
Update on previous warning
Extremely windy conditions expected from mid afternoon through tonight.
West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h with gusts of 100 to 110km/h, with potentially more severe gusts locally in coastal fringes for short periods.

Villain Registered User
#9

IMBACKLATER said:
update on previous warning...

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway
Update on previous warning
Extremely windy conditions expected from mid afternoon through tonight.
West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h with gusts of 100 to 110km/h, with potentially more severe gusts locally in coastal fringes for short periods.


Sounds like they are avoiding Orange warning to avoid naming it.

IMBACKLATER Registered User
#10

Villain said:
Sounds like they are avoiding Orange warning to avoid naming it.


especially after the non event Ewan was.

munsterlegend Registered User
#11

Villain said:
IMBACKLATER said:
update on previous warning...

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway
Update on previous warning
Extremely windy conditions expected from mid afternoon through tonight.
West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h with gusts of 100 to 110km/h, with potentially more severe gusts locally in coastal fringes for short periods.


Sounds like they are avoiding Orange warning to avoid naming it.


Yep must not be fans of Fleur.

Meteorite58 Moderator
#12

Heavy rain has arrived in Tralee with the wind picking up. Feeling a lot cooler too.

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weisses Registered User
#13

Meteorite58 said:
Heavy rain has arrived in Tralee with the wind picking up. Feeling a lot cooler too.


Won't last long .... Blue skies in Dingle, cold though

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weisses Registered User
#14

What I noticed during the heavy rain. that it was ded calm .. and now not even an hour later the wind really picked up ... Checking the wind short range on ME I noticed why

Something I didn't see often

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Gaoth Laidir Registered User
#15

Met Éireann wind warnings for the main airports up to tomorrow morning.

Casement EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 020300/020600 SFC WIND W 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

Dublin EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 020300/020700 SFC WIND W 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

Knock EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 020100/020400 SFC WIND W 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

Cork EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 011700/012300 SFC WIND W 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

Shannon EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 011700/012300 SFC WIND W 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST NC=

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