M.T. Cranium Registered User
#46

Final values confirmed:

IMT finished on 8.1 (from 8.14). Everyone loses one point on that deal.

PRC average 117% so a slight adjustment required there (to provisional scores).

SUN looks to have done well on 31st so may be closer to 107% than the 105% that I estimated, scores will only change if the numbers creep as high as 108% (in almost all cases, sunshine forecasts are multiples of 5% or if not, won't change for 106 or 107). This one I need to check against MS as I am still just estimating, the first two are final values from monthly data tables.

So now it's wait and see what is published on the 4th, would not expect a lot of changes with that.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#47

Confirmed final values from MS (including those already mentioned)>

IMT was 8.1

MAX was 19.2

MIN was --3.3 (this is 0.1 higher than we recorded during the month but daily data confirms this)

PRC 117%

SUN 110%

which is handy because at 5% higher than estimated, all scores change by 1.

-- will adjust the MIN, PRC and SUN in the provisional scoring table and publish that soon (not right away, have to pop out). Then update for the annual totals.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#48

Confirmed final scoring for March 2017

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus 17th Dub __ TOTALS

__ Confirmed values ____ 8.1_19.2_--3.3_117_110__11.3, 1.9

john mac ___ (-2) ______13 _ 19*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 1 _ 5 __ 78-2=76
M.T. Cranium __________18 _ 17*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 4 _______ 75

Con Sensus ___________ 15 _ 10*_ 20 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 74

mickger844posts _______17 _ 10*_ 19 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 73
Lumi ________________ 15 _ 11*_ 20 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 72
200motels ____________22 _ 13*_ 11 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 69
waterways ____________20 _ 15*_ 17 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 67
Rikand _______________19 _ 14*_ 13 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 66
DOCARCH ____________ 08 _ 12*_ 14 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 65
JCX BXC _____________ 17 _ 16*_ 10 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 63
Pauldry_______________13 _ 05*_ 16 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 5 _______ 62
sryanbruen ___________ 23 _ 04*_ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 62
Sunflower3 ___________ 18 _ 10*_ 07 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 62

NormaL ______________ 12 _ 12*_ 08 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 61

Bsal _________________14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 60
Dasa29 ______________ 15 _ 02*_ 18 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 _______ 59
Tae laidir _____________19 _ 07*_ 07 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 56
Kindred Spirit _________ 14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 55
Joe Public_____________10 _ 03*_ 14 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 4 +1 ____ 54
Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 15 _ 10*_ 12 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 3 __ 55-3=52
MrSkinner ____________ 02 _ 03*_ 05 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 41
Jpmarn ______________ 02 _ 06*_ 00 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 22

____________________________________________________


* scores adjusted for minimum progression ... with five at 17.0 tied at 10 points, I thought it fair to drop only three instead of five after that, and let the scores finish out at 2. Also, I boosted high score of 18 to 19 to preserve a bit of the scale of the actual errors. As you are probably aware, scores for Con and NormaL are generated from this process without counting against anybody lower.

Congrats to John mac, MTC (huh?) and mickger844posts for top three finishes this month; changes to provisional scoring were mostly downwards or sideways, everyone lost two points on IMT plus sun except Rikand who was the lone forecaster above the actual sunshine percentage. The other changes to MIN and PRC could move you up or down as much as two points, some stayed even though on PRC. -- annual updates to be posted shortly I hope.

(forecasts for future reference)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#49

Annual scoring January to March 2017


rank/
__ FORECASTER ____ JAN _ FEB _ MAR ___ TOTAL

01 pauldry __________ 74 __ 66 __ 62 _____ 202
t02 Lumi ____________57 __ 72 __ 72 _____ 201
t02 mickger844posts __ 74 __ 54 __ 73 _____ 201

04 Con Sensus _______59 __ 66 __ 74 _____ 199

04 John mac ________ 58 __ 59 __ 76 _____ 193
05 Kindred Spirit _____ 54 __ 78 __ 55 _____ 187
06 DOCARCH ________ 47 __ 73 __ 65 _____ 185
07 200motels ________64 __ 51 __ 69 _____ 184
08 Rikand ___________54 __ 63 __ 66 _____ 183
t09 Tae laidir ________ 68 __ 57 __ 56 _____ 181
t09 sryanbruen _______43 __ 76 __ 62 _____ 181
t11 waterways _______ 49 __ 58 __ 67 _____ 174
t11 M.T. Cranium _____53 __ 46 __ 75 _____ 174

13 NormaL __________43 __ 68 __ 61 _____ 172

13 Bsal ____________ 49 __ 58 __ 60 _____ 167
14 Rameire _________ 57 __ 56 __ 52 _____ 165
15 Dasa29 __________55 __ 49 __ 59 _____ 163
16 Jpmarn __________70 __ 70 __ 22 _____ 162
17 MrSkinner ________50 __ 66 __ 41 _____ 157
18 sunflower3 _______ 46 __ 48 __ 62 _____ 156
19 Joe Public ________ 36 __ 57 __ 54 _____ 147
20 JCX BXC _________ --- __ 60 __ 63 _____ 123
21 Dacogawa ________46 __ 62 __ --- _____ 108

=================================================
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So, the scoring is quite tight near the top of the table. I spotted a minor error in the additions from the last table so there may be some edit required of the annual table in the February thread and the associated winter seasonal scoring.

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