Mods, feel free to shut down if inappropriate but its not often you get a precipitation chart like below less than 48hrs away so lets milk it for all we can!
Straight off, and just to clarify, this is an event driven by cold air sourced from northern Canada. It is not related to the extreme cold in Poland etc so don't expect expect extreme cold or anything like that. With the windchill though it will feel very cold on Thursday and Friday however. It will get milder as the weekend goes on but there is some chance of a more easterly sourced cold then mid week next week (a 25% chance say - Eastern areas best positioned for this).
So to the current precipitation chart from GFS (the American Model):-
What this GFS precipitation chart shows is widespread snow for everywhere except the outer east and extreme south at noon on Thursday. Now straight off these are snow showers and will be hit and miss. Equally its perfectly possible the showers will go all the way to Dublin so don't lose heart east coasters. Equally any Cork city boardies worried that it is on the verge needn't worry overly about showers reaching us as we usually do well in such NW flows (think xmas day '04 and 17 Dec 2010). Equally no guarantees at all that the areas in pink will see snow, let alone settling snow - though the further North and west you go the better your chances.
In my experience the GFS overdoes snow on its precipitation charts so this afternoon's update of the short range tools like euro04 (which only goes out as far as 12am on 13 Jan at the mo) will give a better idea of the breadth and extent of the snow.
No guarantees at all this won't be a damp squib but we frequently have these dedicated threads for borderline wind events two days away and this country is a lot better prepared for wind than it is for snow.
Best of luck to coldies awaiting their fix....
Not wanting to burst any bubbles but this is the graphic Carol Kirkwood put up on BBC news 24 just now for Thursday
Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.
She said the track of that system is causing them some problems but she had the precipitation from it over Munster in the previous frame for Thursday morning
It's effects seem to be to shorten the showers window for everyone,introduce rain in the south and confine the snow showers window to a timeframe that would only really affect Ulster
I presume it was rain bearing!
Yup! It would delay the onset of the cold NW wind but not delay its departure
Thus shortening the spell of widespread showers to 12 hrs and limit their extent as there's a delay and a tweak in their coming as the effect of the system is to bend their route more out to sea before coming in
That's not good as it would bring higher dew points
Weather forecast last night never even mentioned the word "snow "
True the met.ie forecast though gives a dusting for virtually everywhere on
In true boards style it seems by opening this snow thread I have immediately ended its prospects! Thanks for your posts arklow but given their content I can't bring myself to actually click the thank you icon! (sobs quietly...)
Worth mentioning that if that system goes as far north as Munster it's curtains
If it slides to the south it's game on
Carol did say it's positioning is going to be a problem
Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!
I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.
Are all models showing this system?
Hi-res snow accumulation for what it's worth..
Just a rough guide and in reality most of what falls along the west coast will be hail rather than snow.
There 6z gfs still saying all snow whete it falls on Thurs so no downgrade there. Would however defer at this stage to the hi res models. As per the fi thread the 6z gfs is now forecadting a proper easterly next week with inevitable snow for the east coast - long way off yet so still only a 30% shot I would say.