waterways Registered User
#16

5.4_ 5.6 _ 5.7 ___ 120 _ 100_ 150 ____ 17.8 _ -13_ 21.0 __ 80

M.T. Cranium Registered User
#17

Table of forecasts for winter 2016-17 contest

Contest is now closed to further entries. Your mean IMT and PRC are calculated from your monthly values without weighting the shorter duration of February. Weighting would move the averages slightly closer to the Jan-Feb mean but differences are slight. Forecasts are presented in order of mildest to coldest mean winter temperature.


FORECASTER ___ IMT Dec/Jan/Feb_mean__PRC Dec/Jan/Feb_mean__MAX__MIN__SNOW__GUST

pauldry _________ 6.1_6.8_7.0 __ 6.67___090_110_100__100 ___ 17.1 __--7.4 ___ 9.6 __ 69
Waterways ______ 5.4_5.6_5.7 __ 5.57___120_100_150__123 ___ 17.8 _--13.0 __ 21.0 __ 80
Force Eleven _____ 5.9_6.4_4.6 __ 5.63___087_120_090__099 ___ 15.8 __--9.4 ___ 4.0 __ 72
DOCARCH _______ 6.1_4.8_5.3 __ 5.40___116_080_098__098 ___ 16.2 __--8.6 __ 14.5 __ 78
Bsal ____________5.7_5.5_5.0 __ 5.40___125_110_155__130 ___ 15.5 __--8.0 ___ 5.0 __ 79
Sunflower3 ______ 4.5_5.5_6.2 __ 5.40___090_105_120__105 ___ 16.2 __--8.5 ___ 8.0 __ 65
MrSkinner _______ 5.4_5.4_4.7 __ 5.17___088_110_120__106 ___ 16.5 _--10.0 __ 10.0 __ 70
M.T. Cranium _____4.0_5.8_5.5 __ 5.10___120_140_110__123 ___ 15.7 _--11.5 __ 32.5 __ 80
Rikand __________4.5_4.5_6.0 __ 5.00___080_090_140__103 ___ 17.0 __--9.0 __ 15.0 __ 80
sryanbruen ______ 4.2_4.9_5.6 __ 4.90___050_090_120__087 ___ 16.0 _--11.0 __ 10.0 __ 85
john mac ________5.2_4.6_4.8 __ 4.87___099_110_115__108 ___ 16.2 __--8.0 __ 26.0 __ 73
Seaswimmer______5.1_4.8_4.7 __ 4.87___095_105_090__097 ___ 16.0 __--9.0 __ 17.0 __ 68
cdev____________ 4.9_5.1_4.5 __ 4.83___085_110_100__098 ___ 17.0 __--9.0 __ 13.5 __ 83
Dacogawa _______ 5.0_4.2_4.8 __ 4.67___084_104_120__103 ___ 16.2 _--10.7 __ 12.0 __ 78
_________________________________________________________

Fourteen entries, Scoring will be from 15 down to 2 points on the IMT and PRC seasonals, and for items out of 5 or 10, based on one max score (10 or 5.0), one min score (zero) and the other 12 taking the nine remaining spots with two sharing each of fourth, eighth and eleventh positions (so in other words, for items out of 10, scores will run 10, 9, 8, 7,7, 6, 5, 4,4, 3, 2,2, 1, 0. ... for those out of five, take half of those numbers). Ties may make this more complicated, for instance I notice a few MIN share --9.0 as the forecast. We'll sort it out anyway.

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pauldry Registered User
#18

Top of the table for a month anyways!☺

M.T. Cranium Registered User
#19

December IMT was 6.6 and the precipitation a rather dry 74%.

Snowfall of 1 cm so far, and 60 knots the max wind gust, 16.0 MAX, MIN was colder in November than the --5.9 in December.

Scores (out of 5 in each category) so far (assuming we may see higher wind gusts and lower MIN, possibly a higher MAX too although that may qualify. Scores in brackets represent what you would get if none of MAX, MIN or GUST change from current values. These are each out of ten points.


FORECASTER ___ Dec IMT _ Dec PRC __Total for Dec __ (MAX) _ (MIN) _ (GUST)

Pauldry ____________ 5.0 _____ 3.0 ______8.0 ______ ( 1) ___ (10) ___ ( 8)
force eleven _________4.0 _____ 3.5 ______7.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 4) ___ ( 7)
MrSkinner __________ 3.5 _____ 3.5 ______7.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 3) ___ ( 7)
Dacogawa __________ 2.0 _____ 4.5 ______6.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 5)
DOCARCH __________ 5.0 _____ 1.0 ______6.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ ( 5)
Rikand _____________1.0 _____ 5.0 ______6.0 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 3)
cdev _______________1.5 _____ 4.0 ______5.5 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 1)
waterways __________3.5 _____ 1.0 ______4.5 ______ ( 0) ___ ( 0) ___ ( 3)
John mac ___________2.5 _____ 1.5 ______4.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 6)
sunflower3 _________ 1.0 _____ 3.0 ______4.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ (10)
seaswimmer ________ 2.0 _____ 2.0 ______4.0 ______(10) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 9)
Bsal _______________3.5 _____ 0.0 ______3.5 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 4)
sryanbruen _________ 0.5 _____ 2.0 ______2.5 ______ (10) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 0)
M.T. Cranium ________0.0 _____ 1.0 ______1.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 1) ___ ( 3)

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#20

Update on scoring after January 2017

The IMT in January was a mild 6.0, and the PRC a very dry 54% of normal. There was no wind gust stronger than we saw in December, nor a more extreme MAX or MIN. There was no snow at Casement. Here are the updated scores to date: The two added January scores are in bold type to make them easier to spot.


FORECASTER ___ Dec, Jan IMT _ Dec, Jan PRC __ Total _____ (MAX) _ (MIN) _ (GUST)

Pauldry __________ 5.0 _ 2.5 ___ 3.0 _ 2.0 ___12.5 ______ ( 1) ___ (10) ___ ( 8)
force eleven _______4.0 _ 4.5 ___ 3.5 _ 0.5 ___12.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 4) ___ ( 7)
DOCARCH ________ 5.0 _ 1.5 ___ 1.0 _ 5.0 ___12.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ ( 5)
waterways ________3.5 _ 4.5 ___ 1.0 _ 3.5 ___12.5 ______ ( 0) ___ ( 0) ___ ( 3)
MrSkinner ________ 3.5 _ 3.0 ___ 3.5 _ 2.0 ___12.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 3) ___ ( 7)
Rikand ___________1.0 _ 0.5 ___ 5.0 _ 4.5 ___11.0 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 3)
sunflower3 ________1.0 _ 3.5 ___ 3.0 _ 2.5 ___10.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ (10)
Dacogawa ________ 2.0 _ 0.0 ___ 4.5 _ 3.0 ___ 9.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 5)
cdev _____________1.5 _ 2.0 ___ 4.0 _ 2.0 ___ 9.5 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 1)
Bsal _____________ 3.5 _ 3.5 ___ 0.0 _ 2.0 ___ 9.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 4)
sryanbruen ________0.5 _ 2.0 ___ 2.0 _ 4.5 ___ 9.0 ______(10) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 0)
seaswimmer _______2.0 _ 1.5 ___ 2.0 _ 2.5 ___ 8.0 ______(10) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 9)
John mac _________ 2.5 _ 1.0 ___ 1.5 _ 2.0 ___ 7.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 6)
M.T. Cranium ______ 0.0 _ 5.0 ___ 1.0 _ 0.0 ___ 6.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 1) ___ ( 3)
_______________________________________

The scores are in order of the confirmed Dec plus Jan IMT and PRC. The other provisional scores could change if the extremes reached earlier are surpassed. It looks like quite a close race so far.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User
#21

Update on scoring after February 2017

The IMT in February was a very mild 6.3, which makes the winter average also 6.3 (from 6.6, 6.0 and 6.3).

The PRC made a late surge to 104% after running below normal most of the month. That made the winter average 77% of normal after two rather dry months (74% and 54%).

The qualifying MAX is confirmed to be 16.0 from December as February topped out at 14.9. The MIN remains open to mid-April and so far has not gone lower than it went in November, nor has it reached our highest forecast. In February the minimum was --5.6 C.

The wind gust of 76 knots at Mace Head from storm "Doris" will be the high gust for the contest period (Dec to Feb on this element).

There has yet to be any appreciable snow at Casement, that remains open also until 15th of April. Scores shown below are provisional based on a total of under the contest minimum value.

If there are no colder days or if not much snow falls at Casement, the following scores could be later confirmed as the final scoring for the contest. But those two elements remain in play.

FORECASTER ___ D,J,F IMT_Seas IMT __ D,J,F PRC_Seas PRC __ MAX_MIN_SNOW_GUST ___ TOTAL


DOCARCH ______ 5.0_1.5_2.5 __ 12 __ 1.0_5.0_4.0 __ 13 ____ 8 __ ( 7) ___ ( 4) ___10 ___ 73
force eleven _____4.0_4.5_0.5 __ 14 __ 3.5_0.5_3.5 __ 11 ____ 8 __ ( 4) ___ (10) ___ 7 ___ 70.5
Pauldry ________ 5.0_2.5_3.5 __ 15 __ 3.0_2.0_5.0 __ 10 ____ 1 __ (10) ___ ( 7) ___ 3 ___ 67
sunflower3 ______1.0_3.5_5.0 __ 12 __ 3.0_2.5_2.5 __ 07 ____ 8 __ ( 7) ___ ( 8) ___ 0 ___ 59.5
sryanbruen _____ 0.5_2.0_3.5 __ 06 __ 2.0_4.5_2.5 __ 15 ___ 10 __ ( 2) ___ ( 7) ___ 2 ___ 57
Bsal ___________3.5_3.5_2.0 __ 12 __ 0.0_2.0_0.0 __ 02 ____ 4 __ ( 9) ___ ( 9) ___ 8 ___ 55
seaswimmer ____ 2.0_1.5_1.0 __ 05 __ 2.0_2.5_3.5 __ 14 ___ 10 __ ( 6) ___ ( 2) ___ 2 ___ 51.5
Rikand _________1.0_0.5_4.5 __ 07 __ 5.0_4.5_1.0 __ 09 ____ 2 __ ( 6) ___ ( 3) ___ 7 ___ 50.5
Dacogawa ______ 2.0_0.0_2.0 __ 02 __ 4.5_3.0_2.5 __ 09 ____ 8 __ ( 2) ___ ( 5) __ 10 ___ 50
John mac _______2.5_1.0_2.0 __ 05 __ 1.5_2.0_3.5 __ 05 ____ 8 __ ( 9) ___ ( 1) ___ 8 ___ 48.5
MrSkinner ______ 3.5_3.0_1.0 __ 09 __ 3.5_2.0_2.5 __ 06 ____ 4 __ ( 3) ___ ( 7) ___ 4 ___ 48.5
cdev ___________1.5_2.0_0.0 __ 03 __ 4.0_2.0_5.0 __ 13 ____ 2 __ ( 6) ___ ( 4) ___ 3 ___ 45.5
waterways ______3.5_4.5_4.0 __ 13 __ 1.0_3.5_0.5 __ 04 ____ 0 __ ( 0) ___ ( 2) ___ 7 ___ 43
M.T. Cranium ____0.0_5.0_3.0 __ 08 __ 1.0_0.0_4.0 __ 04 ____ 4 __ ( 1) ___ ( 0) ___ 7 ___ 37
______________________________________1

So, we will revisit this at the end of the contest period to see if any changes in MIN or SNOW affect the scoring. Stay tuned.

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pauldry Registered User
#22

Damn Doris! cost me even though my gust was closer after it everyone elses was even closer

Well done Docarch

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