What will the Trump presidency be like? How different to Obama or how similar? And will he be able to reset America's relations?
First off 'The Donald' has inherited the same problems Obama had to deal with. It seems he is the 5th president in a row who has to deal with a major war and like many of his predecessors, this war will be fought in the same place: Iraq. Unlike earlier presidents but like Obama, Trump does not have a choice here: ISIS clearly need to be defeated and fast. Unlike Milosevic, Saddam or even the Taliban, they pose a clear and present danger to the entire world.
So, like Obama, Trump has to defeat ISIS. But unlike Obama, Trump wants close relations with Russia (which I agree with). Back in 2011 when the revival of ISIS (previously al Qaeda in Iraq) came about due to the Arab Spring, Obama backed up democracy in the Middle East. The Arab Spring became a nightmare and Libya and Syria have joined the ever growing list of world failed states. Obama and Russia both opposed ISIS but one chose other rebels and the other chose Assad. Now Trump has shown he wants partnership with Russia and has hinted he will work with Assad.
While I think America and Russia should improve relations, possibly not all of this will be good. America and Russia making friends also means of course that Iran becomes America's new friend. Trump may tear up Obama's deal to make a new deal and restore diplomatic relations. Again, this is a good thing in theory as long as America and Russia persuade Iran's government to abandon fascist laws on women and alcohol (laws that are contrary to Russian, American and Iranian business interests) and insist on the military and clergy to stay out of politics. A new federal republic of Iran with Hassan Rouhani and his elected successors as the true leaders would be good. Let Khamenei then stay on until his death but have him wind up that position akin to Franco's Spain. The other possibility though is America and Russia could tolerate a Revolutionary Guards client state where they become stronger and form business relations with Trump: that would make Iran (or a part of it) a second Saudi Arabia and we don't need that.
Also, there is the massive possibility that a Christian/Shia pact could form between Trump, Putin, Iran, Iraq and Syria along with support of Saudi Arabia as the main Sunni power and Israel as the main Jewish power. In the middle, other Sunnis could be persecuted or marginalised, leading to a new version of ISIS. And even if Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan normalise, chances are the next extremists could come from Sub Saharan Africa or from Siberian separatists. The current threat from the Middle East and militant 'Islam' will not always be the main threat and the world community will need to look out for other flashpoints where wars, famines, discrimination, etc. occur.
Of course, a lot of Trump's responsibilities will be healing his own divided country. Make America Great Again was his slogan. Everyone from moderate Republicans to Clinton haters to racist types voted for him and now Trump has to reign in the latter and represent ALL America and maintain good relations with his neighbours. Hostility with Mexico and Mexicans could stir up more trouble and drug cartels could justify support by waging war on America and a new wave of Narco-terrorism could explode onto the scene, this time from strictly non-Islamic sources. Trump has to think long and hard about what has to be done and should form a government of moderate competent people who can get what needs to be done properly.
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Syria is not a failed state. It is at present at war against a bloodthirsty ruthless enemy and only a total war not seen since WW2 can truly eradicate ISIS which requires many International powers.
True. ISIS need to be eradicated and all world powers should cooperate fully to destroy them. Syria was one of the better states in the region up until 2011.
I see Trump tweeted
Jesus, this guy has some ego, even when he wins he still has something to prove, what the hell will happen when he gets frustrated in office ?
I am no fan of Trump by a long shot but isn't whinging about winning the popular vote, when you KNOW that is NOT how the election is decided not a display of ego too. A disappointed ego that was way too overly expectant all too recently.
The truth of the matter is that we know terribly little about what a Trump presidency really brings.
His conflicting policies, constantly changing positions and ultimately his ignorance of detail mean that there are a world of possibilities.
I'm hopeful that the political pressure that will be heaped upon the President during his tenure will force him to temper and adjust some of his more bananas ideas. There are some elements of the Trump campaign that are certainly welcome, both from an economic and geo political perspective.
Infrastructure plans, efforts to 'tempt' offshored capital back to the US (though hopefully not at a stupid discount), improved relations with other nations are all worthwhile endevours.
If we get to see these only, and far less of the protectionist, isolationist, nationalist stuff, then we might not be too worse off in 4 years.
Time will tell, and it is important that any and all legally prudent means are used to attempt to keep that second list's impacts curtailed.
Or for a start just stop selling arms to their backers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar (as Senators Paul and Murphy proposed)
Netanyahu and the Israeli government are celebrating, they're saying trump's win means the end of the two state solution for the Palestinians.
Aside from day to day politics it is most likely he will preside over at least one major terrorist incident and his reaction to this will probably define his presidency.
It will give him the excuse to react with a show of violence and aggression or else to show compassion and restraint.
My money is on violent and aggressive.
ISIS are all but gone, Putin saw to that. We needed a strong leader, since Obama wasn't up to it, so Putin demolished them.
Economically, he will be restricted, US debt is very high, inflation/stagflation can be a problem, interest rates have to go up, and the yields on bonds could cause problems. America won't be great again anytime soon.
He'll curb migration and rightly so. But this only prevents future problems. It's immediate problems he will struggle with. Similar to Obama, he'll be a big failure.
A notion at odds with the facts:
+1, these popular vote discussions only seem to come up after US elections if the losing side did get the so called "popular vote", but the fact of the matter is that most Americans accept their country's electoral system and unless a good number of them start to consistently oppose the idea of electoral college and ask for a truly national vote, post election complains don't really mean anything except showing that losers are (naturally) frustrated.
Had Trump lost the election and won the "popular vote" we would just see a symmetric situation with Trump and supporters complaining about Clinton winning the election without a national majority, and Clinton and her supporters explaining this is not how the system work and they have to accept it.
Having said that I think Trump is making a political mistake with directly tweeting to answer those concerns in what can be seem as a self-centred way. He should probably ignore people saying that and let someone else handle this - to send the message that he is now the president and doesn't take part in these petty discussions any more (but I understand it isn't exactly his style :-D).
More facts: The caliphate has crumbled, and it didn't crumble by itself.
Folks who are now due to voluntary leave the country after Don’s win include:
Samuel L. Jackson (S.Africa)
Bryan Cranston (unknown)
Neve Campbell (Canada)
Cher (to the 5th planetary body from the Sun, Jupiter)
Miley Cyrus (unknown)
Barbara Streisand (Canada)
Amy Schumer (Spain)
Jon Stewart (other planet)
Whoopi Goldberg (unknown)
Ruth Bader Ginsburg (NZ)
It isn't crumbling on account of any Russian actions though. They're managing to continually avoid attacking ISIS.