Redsunset Moderator
#1

Hi Folks,

Things are looking somewhat promising for a SSW event this winter, so we shall keep a watch and see can enough disruption be caused to the Polar Vortex and aid cold towards the lower latitudes, hopefully our direction.

Firstly the trend is a negative AO to continue as warmer air gets push into the pole.




Next image, keep an eye an the climb, we need this red line to keep going north, currently at about record warmth for the time of year.






Very Good negative wind anomoly so far




More later.

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Captain Snow Registered User
#2

Any updates Redsunset.

sryanbruen Registered User
#3

Temperatures over the North Pole are looking like warming up significantly towards the end of January with some stratospheric warming taking place, even a good chance of sudden stratospheric warming taking place. Temperatures on 25 January over the Arctic are currently looking at -28c, -29c, -30c etc which is above the averages of -49c, -50c etc for this time of year. Not a sudden stratospheric warming quite yet on the long range outlook but still quite a bit of warming expected.

This goes along with the models nicely that the high pressure will build over Scandinavia bringing us bitterly cold easterly winds. This could all end only so well .

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nagdefy Registered User
#4

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/820283534439051264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Re. SSW

P.s. I'm a complete novice regarding Stratospheric warming but isn't it crucial whether it's over the western or pacific hemisphere?

sryanbruen Registered User
#5

nagdefy said:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/820283534439051264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Re. SSW

P.s. I'm a complete novice regarding Stratospheric warming but isn't it crucial whether it's over the western or pacific hemisphere?


Most certainly nagdefy. That's like saying "Isn't it crucial whether the blocking is over the western or pacific hemisphere". It definitely is crucial or else you won't get the expected conditions.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#6

This chart is absolutely beautiful .

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pedigree 6 Registered User
#7

sryanbruen said:
This chart is absolutely beautiful .



Could you tell where blocking could occur in the northern hemisphere by that chart?

sryanbruen Registered User
#8

pedigree 6 said:
Could you tell where blocking could occur in the northern hemisphere by that chart?


Not a guarantee of a location but you can still estimate by where the stratospheric warming goes.

nacho libre Registered User
#9

Well, from what i've been reading this is more likely to be a displacement, rather than a split vortex, so there is the danger a lobe of the vortex will stay over Greenland. Although if that did transpire it's not much different to what we have now - a weakish vortex which still has enough oomph to inhibit blocking near Greenland. Still it does seem to be our best shot of a sustained cold outbreak in the weeks ahead. I wonder will the effects of it show up quicker in the troposphere, given there is not a very powerful vortex this winter

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sryanbruen Registered User
#10

nacho libre said:
Well, from what i've been reading this is more likely to be a displacement, rather than a split vortex, so there is the danger a lobe of the vortex will stay over Greenland. Although if that did transpire it's not much different to what we have now - a weakish vortex which still has enough oomph to inhibit blocking near Greenland. Still it does seem to be our best shot of a sustained cold outbreak in the weeks ahead. I wonder will the effects of it show up quicker in the troposphere, given there is not a very powerful vortex this winter


I'd still be up to that, I love this bland weather. Winter 2005/06 was very similar and then we had the extremely good Summer of 2006! Here's hoping it will be like that.

Redsunset Moderator
#11

Sorry folks, I've being living in Poland and doing alot of skiing the last while and just bring skipping in and out of here. Yes hopefully a SSW can be produced and give Ireland some much needed proper winter conditions . All depends on where polar vortex lopes end up in the event of displacement or split. I don't see a split occurring. And mild can often be the outcome if on the wrong side of things.

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sryanbruen Registered User
#12

Yep, very disappointing today. The Stratospheric warming is still consistent on the GFS with the same warming expected BUT the AO is trending very positive .

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nacho libre Registered User
#13

sryanbruen said:
Yep, very disappointing today. The Stratospheric warming is still consistent on the GFS with the same warming expected BUT the AO is trending very positive .


According to Chino over on Netweather, it won't technically be a ssw. If one does occur there is usually a lag effect before the effects of it begin to show in the troposphere, so the AO could go positive before that happens

The UK met office aren't factoring the warming into their long range forecast so far, but they do mention the possibility of us returning to a mid Atlantic high around the middle of February. I have a strong inkling we will see snow in March. Although I am not really interested in snow by then, unless it's an exceptional event.

#14

nacho libre said:


The UK met office aren't factoring the warming into their long range forecast so far, but they do mention the possibility of us returning to a mid Atlantic high around the middle of February. I have a strong inkling we will see snow in March. Although I am not really interested in snow by then, unless it's an exceptional event.


Yeah that's my thinking too,blooming nuisance when it comes then ,delays spring and melts by noon
So you get icy roads night and morning

There was a significant snowfall in Wicklow and Wexford that stayed on the ground for a week in march 1978
I don't know the date but it was 6 or 8 inches here by the sea and over a foot on higher ground

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