Meteorite58 Moderator

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This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

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Iancar29 Registered User

First northerly of the season anyone?

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Meteorite58 Moderator

The first chart has the GEM showing the remnants of Karl ,after being incorporated into another low system, with a very large wind field brush up against Ireland around Tues.
The second GFS has a less amount of the remnants of Karl incorporated into a low pressure system with less strength and much further North around the same time. Time will tell.

And the possible cold spell after that ???

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Meteorite58 Moderator

On the latest 12z run the GFS indicating that we dodged the bullet from the remnants of Karl. The models in general I think are saying at the moment that the strongest part of the storm will keep to the North of us.

The WRF 06z run possibly showing the storm closer and earlier.

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MidMan25 Registered User

lapua20grain said:
Ok cheers

He mentioned October over on the Netweather Forum. No idea if that is the start or end though

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V_Moth Registered User

This one from GDPS last Monday was pretty funky. Also showed >F10 gusts in southern Germany 12 hours later:

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Meteorite58 Moderator

Set to continue unsettled for the week , as Met Eireann called it a mobile Atlantic flow. A very deep depression showing up on the models for next Sat/ Sun according to the 06z GFS, CMC has it arriving about 48 hrs later . Long way off yet so no doubt will see this modify as the days go on.

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Meteorite58 Moderator

Definitely want to keep an open mind to the models at the moment, seen some big variants between even consecutive runs. This deepening depression is showing up now in a few of the models but the tendency at the moment is for it to just glance off Ireland before heading almost in reverse back to the NW. Both the GEM and GFS have it around early Mon morning.

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Meteorite58 Moderator

That hefty and deep looking storm the weekend is set to stay well out in the Atlantic I would think. Meanwhile it looks to me like a continuation of an active Atlantic Regime next week with another big depression sweeping into the Atlantic midweek but at this stage looks to mainly stay away from Ireland and then it would seem that a big High pressure builds over Scandinavia bringing an E'ly in from Europe at the end of next week, no real cold weather yet it would seem, Europe still very mild.

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Iancar29 Registered User

Wouldn't mind this at all at all

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Meteorite58 Moderator

Two Blocking High Pressures, one over Scandinavia and one out in the Atlantic Keeping an area of lower pressure with cloud and outbreaks of rain over Ireland/ England for a few days run up to this date if it comes off. The Atlantic High pressure doing a good job of keeping that Storm ( ex Nicole ) to the left of it out of the way in this run anyway. Snow Showing up over Scandinavia.

This High Pressure would be nice if it happens

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Captain Snow Registered User

This high pressure set up reminds me of the last week of October 2003.

We had Thunder Snow events along the east coast and alot of snow on higher ground.

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Iancar29 Registered User

Some high ground white stuff possible if this were to come to fruition

Heights building into Greenland too

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Iancar29 Registered User

Some nice outputs from the GFS ensembles... all have potential for at least high ground wintry showers.

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Meteorite58 Moderator

Yea, big plunge of cold uppers showing up from about the 1st until the 7th at least, other charts showing a mix of high and low pressures and sporadic rainfall but way too early to tell for sure. After this weeks temps getting up to mid teens, next week looking decidedly cooler with charts showing daytime temps around 7- 9C

Cold Northerly wind ( windchill ! )

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