Just started out recently with few small bets for fun
had a few nice wins at first..but on a poor spell recently
Just wanted to set up a thread for tips for people starting a betting account?the do's and dont's
1. Have fun (don't start out with an eye on making money - enjoy yourself)
2. Never, ever, ever chase losses. It always ends bad (even if you win, it will give you false confidence for future bets)
3. If you find yourself following tips, then try to do some research to learn why a bet is thought to be a good one (winning from a tip does not really help you get "better" - if such a thing is even possible).
4. Find value. No point in betting on a big team to beat a small one if you are only going to get a small return.
5. To find this value. Look away from the basic "to win" market in such games - maybe focus on the Over/Under market (over/under a certin amount of goals in a match).
6. Bookmark a site like Soccerway to find stats on such bets. Even if you think you know a team, getting in-depth stats from a site like that will help you make better decisions.
7. Avoid big accumulators, as it will give a bet too many areas to fail. Singles and Doubles are usually the best.
8. Remember the fun part
For the next 6 months limit yourself to 2 bets a week (singles).
You will then see what a good bet looks like.
Keep track on how you would have got on had you bet on the other matches that looked good to you.
If you can't come up with at least 5 well thought out reasons why you are choosing that bet then dont bet.
Try to write a betting preview just to focus your thoughts. Whether you share it is up to you.
Never bet an amount of money that it would bother you to lose.
Never bet more than 5%. Sh1t happens regularly in sports otherwise the favourite would always win norwich would not beat arsenal.
don't bet on women, children or animals (personal choice obviously).
learn a couple of methods to price up what you want to bet on or you will almost certainly lose over the long run.
Dont bet sports you know little to nothing about.
Dont bet drunk.
Check team news.
dont base your bets based mainly on the league table. Thats about 10% of the total work you should put it and only if you put it into the proper context and understand why the results are what they are.
if someone cant explain why they are tipping something properly its not something you should take on board.
be aware of the fatigue factor.
home and away form can vary HUGELY.
excel is a crucial tool.
if your only starting out you are 99.99% likely to lose money over the next year. Do you have the dicipline to bet on paper only and see where your strengths and weakness lie?
understand what value is and realise that find value and betting a suitable amount is the only way to be profitable.
open an account with betfair.
deposit and think what can i grow this to in 3+ years. You try to make your fortune in a month you will bust.
dont back liverpool.
LMAO @ don't back Liverpool ... but it's true - never blindly back your fav team it's a loser
Only thing I'd add coz the lads are very comprehensive in what they've already suggested is to understand the context of a match - a cup match is different from league (particularly a 2 leg game), a derby match where form can go out the window, a match that's critical for one team maybe relegation or qualifying for european, friendlies not worth a tuppence or indeed the intangible "bogey team" - where everything suggests one thing but H2H suggests otherwise. In the win markets move the odds more in your favour by betting on double chance (DC) or draw no bet (DNB) - the odds are smaller but it's about getting a return in the end. Enjoy
1. Track your bets on excel (or open office).
2. Don't let things get messy by betting from your regular bank account. Have a separate lump sum at the start called a betting bank so things don't get messy.
3. Join a bunch of different bookmakers (and betfair) to get the best odds, because that can make a lot of difference.
Respect the bookies. They employ lots of smart people who know about football and maths to set the odds. Every ad you see for ladbrooks or Bet365, every pair of sponsored Bendtner underpants, the very fact that bookies still exist proves that they know what they're doing. Profiting from gambling is absolutely possible, but it's not easy. That's why you have to be disciplined.No betting on whims, on half-baked reasoning, or betting for a bit of interest, or any reason other than "this bet represents good value"
I hope this part is obvious and unnecessary, because it's the most important. You can tell by the fact I used bold, italics, AND underlining.
Don't bet because you think the bet will win, bet because the bet represents good value.
The price for Man city to beat swansea tomorrow is 1.25. You bet 10, you'll win 2.50. Effectively the bookie is saying in 1 out of every 1.25 games, Man city will beat swansea at home. In terms of probability, they think man city will win 80% of the time. If you think the actual chance of Man City winning is greater than 80%, take the bet. If you think it's less, don't back it.
I think we'll all agree Man City are likely going to win this game, but for me the chances of them winning 70%. Even though I think the bet will win, I won't back it. Because in the long term, I'd lose money.
Similarly, I backed Brad Friedel to be man of the match in the Chelsea Spurs game last week. Not because I thought he would be ( I thought he had about an 8% chance), but because the bookies thought it was even less likely than I thought (about 4%). I happily made the bet, knowing I was very unlikely to see that money, because in the long term, that's the right thing to do.
I'm new to football betting myself..
what do you guys look for when trying to pick a game that will go over 2.5 goals?
Yeah quit now before its too late ill bet 1.00000000001 you will lose an lose regularly so take my advice.
I use advanced statistical analysis in any bets I make.
which give the following information of all matches for the last 15 seasons in the premier league down to the championship. It can tell you all the information about every single match in the premier league.
Div = League Division
Date = Match Date (dd/mm/yy)
HomeTeam = Home Team
AwayTeam = Away Team
FTHG = Full Time Home Team Goals
FTAG = Full Time Away Team Goals
FTR = Full Time Result (H=Home Win, D=Draw, A=Away Win)
HTHG = Half Time Home Team Goals
HTAG = Half Time Away Team Goals
HTR = Half Time Result (H=Home Win, D=Draw, A=Away Win)
Match Statistics (where available)
Attendance = Crowd Attendance
Referee = Match Referee
HS = Home Team Shots
AS = Away Team Shots
HST = Home Team Shots on Target
AST = Away Team Shots on Target
HHW = Home Team Hit Woodwork
AHW = Away Team Hit Woodwork
HC = Home Team Corners
AC = Away Team Corners
HF = Home Team Fouls Committed
AF = Away Team Fouls Committed
HO = Home Team Offsides
AO = Away Team Offsides
HY = Home Team Yellow Cards
AY = Away Team Yellow Cards
HR = Home Team Red Cards
AR = Away Team Red Cards
HBP = Home Team Bookings Points (10 = yellow, 25 = red)
ABP = Away Team Bookings Points
Above is good information on previous results from the teams that have played in the last couple of years and also gives the scores. You would be suprised how often the over/under comes through based on looking at scores from previous years. You also need to take in to account if a team has strenghted or weakend
Also you want to know how to cut your losses with live betting which if done correctly can cut your losses dramatically
I don't get this?
If I'm going to place a bet it's not because it's for fun it's because I want money
Not a fan of soccer but would still bet on it purely for the money side of things. Thought that's what gambling was for...?
How exactly do you statistically analyse all these factors to determine value?
Most people lose, some sources put the figure as high as 98%.
Most put no effort into their bets or base their bets by just looking at the league table.
Hopefully they are getting some enjoyment out of it.
The matches I watch for enjoyment are very rarely the matches I bet on. When contemplating a bet part of my process is looking at the highlights of each teams last 5 matches and reading reviews to cover what the highlights may miss.
I've only started betting recently and personally I'd recommend doing accumulators as opposed to singles. The win/lose divide is much easier to bridge. For instance with singles most games Id bet on would be the likes of United, Barca etc but you'll get **** odds on them. So the money you make is only a fraction of what you'd get if you lose. With accumulators I bet €5 about twice a week on accumulators that if I win pay out usually around €70. That means that I can lose 14 times and one win means I break even. Also with them I try to keep it down to 4/5 teams for the best chances. Never bet on friendlies likewise with European matches you have to be aware of the position of the team in the group such as if they've already qualified. Europa league is so unpredictable so dont bother. I bet on United because they're a good team who usually win but in general I'd recommend never betting on your team ESPECIALLY Ireland.
It's hard enough to find value bets every week, let alone 4/5 in the win/draw/lose market. Bookies ****ing love accumulators. Everyone here who takes this seriously, me included, is telling beginners to avoid them.
I usually stick a fiver down on them with returns of around 60-70. I've had some very good success on them and it means Im never going to lose much yet I'll get good returns.
You are about five times more likely to succeed backing a team at 16/1 then backing 6/7 for around the same price in long run.
Forget your doubles and Accums if you want make any money.
The most important thing is you got to be patient.
Sometimes you may have to wait weeks for good bet to come up.
I make most of my money on matches before they even kick off or on 2.5 Overs market.