There was some interest last month with placing bets on WWE, and Paddy Power are taking bets on this Sunday's show. I know some people asked how it worked and what was the best way to approach it. Figured a few of us wrestling fans could discuss the bets in the hopes some people could follow us and make money on the show. Here's the odds...
First off, I'll say I made profit off the last two shows on accumulators (not a lot; turned 3 quid into 9 both times).
The problem with this show though is that because it's a "bigger" show, as compared to the less important shows that followed, it's harder to call. There's what should happen in terms of results to further stories and get the right characters over, and what WWE wants to do; usually, if WWE feel something is too predicatble, they'll change at the last minute no matter how little sense it makes.
So, the main example of this would be the Dolph Ziggler vs Chris Jericho match; on paper, the point of this match is to get the younger Ziggler over with the crowds ahead of pushing him as a top guy for the company. Logically, Ziggler should get the clean win (hence why the odds are 1/4). On top of that, Jericho is heading off on tour with his band soon so could be wrote out on this show via a loss. Of course, WWE could just as easily put Jericho over and have him win just to be "unpredictable". Here, I'd say there's a 90% chance Ziggler wins, but that's where wrestling bets get dodgy; that 10% that's left over.
Likewise, Brock Lesnar should defeat HHH; Brock lost to John Cena in his last match, and in the process, WWE destroyed what credibility Brock had. The decision was widely panned. What WWE should do with this show is have Brock murder HHH in the hopes they can rehab him and move him on to a big money making feud with someone at Wrestlemania. But HHH is the bosses son-in-law and is a backstage politican, and it's quite possible that they will just feed HHH's ego and have Brock lose to HHH. And then there's the other option; have a DQ ending which sets up a rematch in the next few months. That last option is what I'd say is most likely to happen tbh, so I'll be going for a HHH win in this one (4/1)
Miz should go over Rey Mysterio. 4/6. No story to the match, Miz just won the title. This shouldn't be any problems, and to me, gives the safest bet right now.
Punk, having just turned bad guy, SHOULD retain his title, especially since they just teased he's facing Rock in a few months. Punk is 1/2. I'd rather a bet that Big Show will be the guy who takes the losing pinfall, and it's always dangerous to bet against Cena. But the next PPV is in Cena's home town, and it seems to make more sense that Punk retains here and heads to the next show as the bad guy to defend against the home town hero.
Don't know about Daniel Bryan vs Kane. Could go either way. Charlie Sheen has been teased to make some sort of appearance here, and could aid Kane in the win, so at a push, I'd say go Kane. 8/11. Bryan is a submission specialist, and Kane never taps out. It would destroy his character to do so.
The tag titles match still has to be added to the odds as well.
They usually let accumulators be done at the weekend, presumably once the odds stop fluctuating so much. I'll be doing two accumulators then; one based on what WWE should do logically....
Ziggler, Punk, Brock, Miz, Kane
....and one of what WWE will probably do....
Jericho, Cena, HHH, Miz, Kane.
But those thoughts could change as news of the show develops over the week, so I'd hold out betting till Sunday afternoon tbh.
I didn't read the thread, just your picks.
There is not a hope Jericho is winning. Leaving after Summerslam. Ziggler has the briefcase. NOT A HOPE!! Smackdown spoilers tonight will tell all. Jericho will get the "upper hand" going into Sunday.
HHH is also in no way beating Lesnar. There is even less chance of that happening than Jericho beating Ziggler!!
I agree with Kane and Miz (but it wouldn't surprise me to see The Miz being turned over). They will give Kane the win to continue the story of D Bryan "losing his mind" imo.
WWE Title Match is tough to call, but I'd say CM Punk retains after Cena FU's Big Show. CM Punk throws him outta the ring and gets the W. Big Show is taken the fall wither way.
The only potential value I see in the matches available is Rey Mysterio @11/10, but I still won't be backing him.
You saying Jericho has a 10% chance of winning doesn't make his 5/2 good value at all man.
To me, you can never said there's "Not a hope" of someone winning. There's been plenty of examples in recent times of people who should have won not winning. (See Cena vs Brock).
That said, I'm not saying my bets are foolproof. Just talking my thoughts out about some of them
ah ya, but you know what I mean
Like saying "there is not a hope Ireland will beat Brazil". That kinda thing.
The thing with Jericho and Ziggler though is they could do an ending where Jericho wins and then Ziggler attacks him and destroys him, giving Jericho his out for a few months. Wins and losses mean little in story. Thats what makes it hard to bet on...
think i saw a post here few weeks ago about someone who predicted most of the wwe results. was that you? also just had a look on the link to pp and it only takes singles which is a bit **** tbh.
i dont know fa about wwe now. i used watch a bit when it was wwf and bret hart was the man.
cant see any value in these 1/4 and 1/7 shots. im enough of a degen to place a bet if there is a bit of value
Wasn't me. Think it might have been Ade. I engaged in the debate but there was someone doing better than I did on the bets
As for the single bets, I said above that PP tend not to take the accumulators till the day before the show for some reason. Come the weekend, they'll probably be up.
And yeah, you've really got to do the accumulators to get any real value out of it.
Then in that case you shouldn't be betting on it.
I love pro wrestling but how in the hell can you bet on what's essentially a scripted television show
Its a novelty bet, same as a bet on any other TV show. And it would be a hell of a lot easier if the script didn't change every ten minutes between now and Sunday night...
The wrestlers do know who going to win before they get into ring though right?
If only you had inside info
Yeah, of course.
Accumulators now appear to be working.
HHH has dropped from 4/1 to evens
I made the thread last time
I have had a bet on the last few PPVs (€10 accumulators), only lost one, and made about €200 on those 4 bets. What I did for those PPVs was to wait until the Sunday of the PPV, and whoever was the fave at that point - stick them all in an accumulator. At that point Paddy have usually have adjusted the odds, and usually seem to have the winners as faves (although in waiting so long, the odds are much lower, so you win less).
If you want to bet early (and try and get better odds), my ideas for the PPV is
- Brock to win (He has a short contract with WWE. He lost to Cena already, if he loses to HHH, then whoever it goes up against next is meaningless). He should win this.
- Punk to win(For the last few months, WWE TV have been talking about his long reign and should not want to end it now). They are already teasing a match with The Rock at Royal Rumble
- Miz to win (He just won the title. He made a movie before he won it, and WWE should want a title on him to promote the crap move)
- Ziggler to win (The main reason Jericho came back this time was to push some of the new talent. He should lose this to make Dolph look good). He band also has dates booked, so he should go away again for a few weeks/mpnths
- Bryan to win (He seems to be the best think they have going. They will not make him lose to Kane). They could - but they should not!
- Sheamus to win (They are forcefully trying to make him the next Cena (he is in a few American adverts for K-Mart and stuff). He should win this too.
This is around 8/1ish now, although Vince McManhon could change a lot before Sunday (The RAW rating was bad last Monday - and the last time that happened they dropped loads of stoylines they had going).
I personalty recommend waiting until Sunday (before 8PM - as PP close bets at that point), then picking the faves. Seeing as this won many times for me, I have no reason to try anything different.
Thats the one I'd be most worried about tbh, and I've gone with Kane to win.
Bryan hasn't won a PPV match in AGES (about six months). He puts on great matches but rarely wins them. And from a creative point of view, a loss to Kane would continue his "Going Nuts" character....