Finnbar01 Registered User
#61

According to this chap it has been happening for quite a while now.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/05/full-fledged-european-bank-run-ecb.html

kennyb3 Registered User
#62

Again no run - a run happens in a matter of days, but as i've said previously there is large scale capital flight

If you look at boards or askaboutmoney and other such sights in Q3 & Q4 in 2011, this is fairly evident given the queries raised.

Amberman Registered User
#63

I know what you're trying to say about the definition of a classic bank panic and what it looks like, with queues of grannies and taxi drivers getting their 5 grand out, but capital flight is a pre-requisite for a run. Happens every time.

Smart money always exits first. Runs are caused by the masses...dumb money.

1 person has thanked this post
Unrealistic Registered User
#64

kennyb3 said:
Again no run - a run happens in a matter of days, but as i've said previously there is large scale capital flight

If you look at boards or askaboutmoney and other such sights in Q3 & Q4 in 2011, this is fairly evident given the queries raised.

It was actually Q4 2010 when we came closest to a run. Take a look at the graph in the post above. That was when the Irish banks started implementing withdrawal restrictions or at least strictly enforcing withdrawal limits that had previously only existed on paper.

1 person has thanked this post
Amberman Registered User
#65

Heres an excellent rundown of the actors and scenarios at play in Greece right now.

If I was Greek, (or had Euros in Portugal, Italy, Spain...or Ireland for that matter) my Euros would be long since moved. Zero upside, potentially huge downside.

Why risk it? I can't think of a single reason to leave money in the periphery...like a fast growing number of European citizens.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-bazookas-here-come-tomahawks-and-howitzers-r-rated-walk-thru-greek-endgame

RoverZT Registered User
#66

Amberman said:
Heres an excellent rundown of the actors and scenarios at play in Greece right now.

If I was Greek, (or had Euros in Portugal, Italy, Spain...or Ireland for that matter) my Euros would be long since moved. Zero upside, potentially huge downside.

Why risk it? I can't think of a single reason to leave money in the periphery...like a fast growing number of European citizens.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-bazookas-here-come-tomahawks-and-howitzers-r-rated-walk-thru-greek-endgame


What would you transfer it to?

US dollars?

Sterling?

If you had 40k euro in your bank account what would someone do with it?

Amberman Registered User
#67

Dollars or Norwegian Krona would be my flight to safety picks...gold could get hammered in a Grexit...but you should seek expert advice before you do anything.

_Kaiser_ Registered User
#68

Here's a question then... say I have a loan with AIB and it goes under - what happens to that loan?

Amberman Registered User
#69

Kaiser2000 said:
Here's a question then... say I have a loan with AIB and it goes under - what happens to that loan?


The loan book will be sold by the administrators for the highest price they can get to try and return some money to the creditors. You're loan doesn't go to money heaven if thats what you're getting at.

1 person has thanked this post
_Kaiser_ Registered User
#70

Amberman said:
The loan book will be sold by the administrators for the highest price they can get to try and return some money to the creditors. You're loan doesn't go to money heaven if thats what you're getting at.


No.. that only happens if you owe BILLIONS in this country

As I've posted before though, unlike seemingly a lot of other people I don't believe that my/an individual's personal financial choices should be (made) the responsibility of others, but that answers my question so cheers

RoverZT Registered User
#71

Amberman said:
Dollars or Norwegian Krona would be my flight to safety picks...gold could get hammered in a Grexit...but you should seek expert advice before you do anything.


Thanks Amberman

Any experts here?

Doesn't Seamus work for a bank?

Amberman Registered User
#72

Kaiser2000 said:
No.. that only happens if you owe BILLIONS in this country

As I've posted before though, unlike seemingly a lot of other people I don't believe that my/an individual's personal financial choices should be (made) the responsibility of others, but that answers my question so cheers


They sell the book...all the loans together...not your individual loan. You'll still be responsible for the loan...as they will be sold on en masse by the bankrupt banks administrators.

This happens every Friday night in the US. Small banks are going bust left and right and the loan and deposit books are being taken over by stronger banks...often at large discounts to intrinsic value, but thats besides the point.

Dan_Solo Banned
#73

mike65 said:
There will only be a run on the banks if enough people are panicked into withdrawing money. Lets try to not be that stupid.
Ah yes, the confidence thing. If you think things are grand then they really are.
As was said before, the banks have everybody's money as long as they don't all want it back.

Scofflaw Registered User
#74

Dan_Solo said:
Ah yes, the confidence thing. If you think things are grand then they really are.
As was said before, the banks have everybody's money as long as they don't all want it back.


That is true at all times, which is why confidence is important. If people only withdraw what they usually use, the bank has enough money to cover it - if they all withdraw it at once from exactly the same bank, the bank fails.

Similarly, a piece of paper or a lump of metal are only worth something as long as people are confident they are.

cordially,
Scofflaw

2 people have thanked this post
#75

RoverZT said:
What would you transfer it to?

US dollars?

Sterling?

If you had 40k euro in your bank account what would someone do with it?


swiss francs,

canadian dollars (has a stable banking system)


currencies i wouldn't change to

us dollar - if the euro goes it will pull the usa into recession again

uk pound - again if the euro goes the uk too will be fecked.

Want to share your thoughts?

Login here to discuss!