Medici Time 33/1
Absolutely love trying to solve these big field sprint handicaps and I'm settling for Tim Easterby's apparent 2nd string in the shape of Medici Time. Granted, I may be mad for taking on Shropshire who was beaten a neck by Maarek on his last start considering I rate the winner so much but for some reason I just don't like him. I think Shropshire actually raced on the better side of the track even though Maarek won on the other side. Barring the winner, nothing came from off the pace and I think the race panned out in a way that suited Shropshire. Finally, in Shropshire's two runs at the track he's finished well down the field twice so there is a definite uncertainty about his ability to act at York and he probably likes the ground a bit softer than it currently is.
Medici Time comes here on the back of a break from October but has a fantastic record running fresh. In the last 3 years from pretty much the same break, he's won once and come 2nd twice so I am certainly buoyed by his excellent record fresh. His last 4 races last year were solid without being spectacular and as a result he's fallen 4lb in the handicap to a mark of 85 which I certainly think is very workable. He's now only 1lb above his last winning mark which came at Newmarket last June where he won by a neck after getting up close home over the 5f trip. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Lujeanie finishing 3rd behind Murura on his next start with a 4lb higher mark and it was certainly a likeable effort by Medici Time. On his next start after that, and on his 5th last start, Medici Time ran a very good 1.25L beaten 4th off a mark of 89 at Ascot. Ignoring the winner who was clearly extremely well handicapped and very unlucky in running, the form of that race looks solid with the 2nd Sohraab holding his form well off the same mark and the 3rd Confessional has won again since off a 3lb higher mark.
Although he hasn't won over 6f since 2009, I've watched and rewatched a lot of Medici Time's 5f victories and on several occasions it looks as if the 6f trip would definitely suit. Medici Time has had 3 starts at York including a win over 5f last June so he clearly goes well at the track. Studying previous similar events at York, I think the draw in stall 16 should be absolutely ideal for Medici Time and even if low numbers prove to be favoured the fact this 7 year old is generally held up should allow him to switch tactics if needed. Tom Eaves takes the ride and clearly gets on very well with this animal and he is a very encouraging jockey booking in my eyes. From his two rides on Medici Time, Eaves boasts a win at the course as well as a less than 2L beaten 4th and its a major positive in my eyes. Although most of his opposition have had runs this season, Medici Time has a great record fresh which I'm sure he can use to his advantage. Given the size of the field, he should get the fast pace that will suit which should hopefully allow him to swoop fast and late. Trainer Tim Easterby is in good form and off a mark of 85 I think he's very overpriced at 33s, and looks huge at 75s on Betfair. If all goes to plan, I'm confident of a very big run from Medici Time and hopefully he can land this valuable handicap.
The one i like in that race and am intrigued by is Baby Strange. A C&D winner and ran on the wrong side last time beating all on that side and only beaten by less than 2lengths. I remember Martin Lane on ATR recently saying about the horse that he was ready to win, it was just a matter of time so gonna stick a few euro e/w on it @12/1.
In the other big sprint of the day I really like the chance of Society Rock with the form James Fanshawe's horses are in(6 placed 1 winner from last 12 runners)I can't see this horse being outside the top 3 at the very least and @ 9/1 on Bet365 is calling e/w for me. Fast pace guaranteed in these races so it will suit him perfectly to scythe through the field and another big prize beckons for a very underrated sprinter
Good picking Rossom though, it's good to see someone putting so much effort into writing about there picks instead of the usual 'i have a tip for this nag that i handpicked from the paper that Kieran O'Connell napped' type that does be common on these pages, keep it up
Cheers Mr. J
New Hampshire 16/1
Fascinating contender for Tony Coyle whose last race makes for incredibly hard reading. Previously with John Gosden, this 4 year old made his debut of Coyle at Ripon last month after being gelded in a 4 runner affair which makes for extremely difficult reading. After watching this race numerous times, I've come to the conclusion where I think there was no fluke about New Hampshire's effort. Making the running under tomorrow's jockey Lee Topliss, it appeared to my eyes to be a fairly steady pace. Coming into the home straight, New Hampshire was headed by two of his rivals before finding more until he became very uncontrollable as he drifted all the way to the near side rail and even collided with the fence losing momentum before eventually going down by 1.5L. During his manoeuvre, I'm guessing New Hampshire lost about 7 or 8L and if reading it as true form it was a really excellent effort. The winner Jet Away is a 114 rated animal who has won off a similar break before and if New Hampshire ran in a straight line he would surely have run out the race winner. Furthermore, the 3rd home has won off a mark of 95 last year and the last to finish Black Spirit is a 100 rated horse so if looking at the form literally New Hampshire's handicap mark of 90 looks extremely lenient.
When with John Gosden, New Hampshire put in some decent efforts including a 4L beaten 5th at Lingfield off a mark of 89 when the front four home were held up and a 0.5L beaten 2nd at Kempton off a mark of 84. Even if you disregard New Hampshire's last run, if you factor in the potential improvement the horse could get from turning 4, being gelded and the switch to a new trainer then his mark of 90 certainly looks feasible. Tomorrow, he faces a tough task a completely different prospect in this 14 runner field but I genuinely think New Hampshire is very well handicapped off a mark of 90. I think its very, very interesting that Coyle has New Hampshire entered into the Group 2 Hardwick Stakes next month which is his only horse with any fancy entries. Connections paid 20,000gns to acquire New Hampshire so they obviously felt he had significant scope to improve. The return to the left handed York should definitely help considering his huge tendency to veer left on his last start. Again the excellent Lee Topliss takes the ride and he takes off a very valuable 3lbs. He could win this easily or fail miserably but at 16/1 I'm trusting my reading of his last race and I think he can run a massive race.
Tim Easterby's horses are flying at the mo. Medici Time is very good value. Good write up too Rossom
If Chilly Filly wins I'll be annoyed but her quirks have just put me off. Resultantly, I'm siding with James Bethall's truly excellent servent Granston who I think could run a very big race and upstage his field of juniors. Now 11 years old, Granston is one of the great advertisements to racing, especially considering his ability to operate on such a high level. Tomorrow Granston makes his seasonal reappearance and has an absolutely tremendous record doing so in the past few years. His last 4 seasonal reappearances read 1-2-2-2 and he was only beaten by more than 1.5L once, which was against subsequent Breeders Cup Turf winning Dangerous Midge so its clear he ran into a good thing that year! Last year Granston made his reappearance off a mark of 84 where he ran out an impressive winner by 1.5L at Beverley. He also demonstrated that this wasn't a flash in the pan as he continued to run good races including two narrow defeats off a mark of 88, both in Class 3 events. Tomorrow, he returns off a mark of 85 and I certainly think he looks well handicapped. Moreover, this will be his first return to a Class 4 event since his victory last year. He clearly goes well at the track and although he hasn't won he's been beaten 1.5L less on 3 of his 5 visits to the track. Graham Gibbons takes the ride tomorrow and he was on board for his successful reappearance last year. Trainer James Bethall is in very good form at present and this represents the trainer's only runner of the day. Although clearly the most exposed in the field, Granston has an outstanding record fresh and if continuing that trend I think he can run a very big race at 20/1 and I'll be absolutely chuffed if this 11 year old can spring a bit of a shock by landing this 20 runner event.
Ha ha. I went through this race and picked that exact horse out too as he runs well fresh ! Anyways I also cant have Tartan Gigha go off at a massive price on that mark either.
I have sided with Richard Fahey's runner in this though.
all we need is one more for an e/w Lucky 15
added Elnawin in the 3:00 York (33/1 PP/365)
looked to be a very progressive sort this time last year, but missed the 2nd half of last season
might be in need of the run, but if maintaining the form of a facile listed win at Salisbury lto, could well run into a place at a big price
Great write up again Rossom . I have to agree with you on New Hampshire . If his last run can be taken at face value 16/1 is a steal
Where is O Connell these days? Do fancy Coolminx in this race though, racingpost pick is baby strange who may go close though. Tough race tho
Rockme Cockney 20/1
Was waiting to see if the cash came for this one. Could be incredibly well handicapped off a mark of 60 after plummeting from his opening handicap mark of 75. Ran a good race off a mark 70 back in November and he drops into a very poor 0-60 for the first time in his career. Matthew Cosham takes the ride and takes off a very handy 5lb in what is his only ride of the day and also his first ride for the in form Jeremy Gask. Had a decent sized bet on this one.
I dunno if there is anything in this one but I'll share anyway, up to you guys if you want to part with your cash.
8.20 Naas - Badger or Bust 10/1
Mate just rang me up saying have a few quid E/W on it.