risteard7 Registered User
#1

DublinWriter said:
...and there's the essential flaw in your plan.

No offense to you dude, but that's a real 'head in the sand' attitude.

The first flaw in your arguement is that the cost of property, in the long economic term, only goes in one direction - up.

If you think the same apartment will cost you the exact same in five years time then you're out of your mind.

I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.

The second flaw in your arguement is that you're assuming that interest rates will stay at their current historic low over the next five years. Oil prices hit an all time high today and the trend looks like it will continue, driving up inflation and interest rates in the long term.

There's only been one good time to buy property and that time is now.

mmmmm

6 people have thanked this post
shangri la Registered User
#2

DublinWriter said:
Bascially I don't think any localised factors will come into play in influencing a drop in house prices.

The main factor will be global/EU inflation over the next ten years.

As oil is starting to skyrocket it looks like we maybe in for a bumpy ride re inflation and it could turn all into the 70's again.

Economic patterns on the whole are generally cyclical and we are due for a massive global recession around about now.

Certainly I wouldn't use *any* excuse to hold off buying property right now.

On the whole, you never lose money with bricks and mortar in this country. After the currency crisis in the UK in the early 90's, property prices rebounded and then some.


the good old days... 2005.

I wonder how this person fared or was it a young one who didn't buy.

1 person has thanked this post
Zamboni Registered User
#3

Awesome zombie thread.

7 people have thanked this post
#4

It illustrates quite nicely just how naive most people were about the absolute collapse that was only around the corner!

Newaglish Registered User
#5

I read over some of the 2005/2006 threads in A&P sometimes as they give some really interesting insights into attitudes at the time. It's like a time capsule filled with ignorance.

2 people have thanked this post
smallerthanyou Registered User
#6

Wow. That is all.

My favourite quote "Property prices will not go down .... full stop."

2 people have thanked this post
Newaglish Registered User
#7

smallerthanyou said:
Wow. That is all.

My favourite quote "Property prices will not go down .... full stop."


What about this gem?

I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.

3 people have thanked this post
shangri la Registered User
#8

whizzbang said:
And the Graph for the UK http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk/images/youarehere.gif

ignore the fact that prices dropped 50% after the other two peaks, That was only for erm, several years, property prices do not go down!


August '05.

Well done.

shangri la Registered User
#9

Culchie said:
oh nice website !

I especially like the "Why rent is not dead money " article Listen Whizzbang, I hope there are plenty who think like you, because in another 3 or 4 years, I'll have a house I bought to let in 1998 paid off. That isn't meant to be a smart comment, but the reality of the situation. Rent is dead money. If you can afford to buy a house, go ahead and do it. Why should you be paying off my mortgage, when you can be paying off your own? P.S Looks like a good time to invest in Japanese Land then

the very next post.

shangri la Registered User
#10

whizzbang said:
I'm happy for you that your house to let will be paid off (10 year mortgage?), I couldn't afford a house in 98 and I can't afford one now.

I'm looking at it like this.

I pay rent of $575 a Month Option A Buy Appartment now Pay ?1,796 a month mortgate (?400,000, 30 years, 3.5%) Let say ?1450 per month of that is interest for first 5 years After 5 years I have paid out ?107,760 Of which ?87,000 is interest and ?20,000 is paid off the principle I finish paying the mortgage and pay a total of ?646,624.35 Option B I wait 5 years, Pay ?575 a month on rent = ?6,900 a year Save ?350 a month (difference between mortgage and interest) After 5 years time I have paid out ?34,500 in rent I have saved ?20,000 I get a 25 year mortage on ?380,000 (400,000 - 20,000) Total repayments for which total to ?570,710.87 Add on the rent I spent in the 5 years waiting ?34,500 Add on the ?20,000 I saved Total outlay of ?625,210 ?20,000 less than if I bought now. The only reason this makes sense is that I believe that 5 years time house prices will be less than now. So I am effectivly paying ?34,500 to put off making the decision so I can see if I'm right. Seeing as rents are a lot less than paying the interest on a mortgage it is currently worthwhile to continue to pay rent to put off buying a house to see if prices decrease. If rents rise significantly I have to buy as the number no longer work out, if house prises rise significantly I have to buy as number dont' work out. If house prices drop (which I think they will), or stay level I'm in the money Ireland is not immune to Negative Equity! for some reason people think we are! J

post of the thread!

2 people have thanked this post
noxqs Registered User
#11

I love reading this forum back to 2005/2006. This is stuff future and current historians should be salivating over.

Many of the cheerleaders who were frequent posters back then for years, havent said a peep since 2008. I remember a quote:

"either way a property bought as an investment for the purpose of living in serves that purpose regardless of booms/crashes etc. Its not like stocks and shares."


This kind of insane "investment" advice from self proclaimed gurus probably influenced a lot of people to do some bad choices. These people boasted about their multiple investment properties, I wonder how that went for them.

Anyways - enough schadenfreude - but it should be sobering food for thought should you ever find yourself in a market where this is repeating.

shangri la Registered User
#12

noxqs said:
but it should be sobering food for thought should you ever find yourself in a market where this is repeating.

david mcwilliams reckons this is the current situation in australia.

#13

Canada looks bubble like also.

Spiritofthekop Registered User
#14

DublinWriter said:
...and there's the essential flaw in your plan.

No offense to you dude, but that's a real 'head in the sand' attitude.

The first flaw in your arguement is that the cost of property, in the long economic term, only goes in one direction - up.

If you think the same apartment will cost you the exact same in five years time then you're out of your mind.

I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.

The second flaw in your arguement is that you're assuming that interest rates will stay at their current historic low over the next five years. Oil prices hit an all time high today and the trend looks like it will continue, driving up inflation and interest rates in the long term.

There's only been one good time to buy property and that time is now.


Can we get Dublinwriter back in the thread please....I've a few questions for him!!

3 people have thanked this post
Ritchi Registered User
#15

Good reading in this thread. It seems that the few who bucked the trend turned out to be right.

Everyone now is saying it's a bad time to buy...

Want to share your thoughts?

Login here to discuss!