Animals can sense changes in there immediate enviroment, like earthquakes and tsunami,s. As for long range forecasting using nature, there are many folklore sayings which help the farmering community which work in nature. Nature does show signs of weather to come. But how far ahead and what the outcome can be, is unknown....
He just an old man using old weather signs, theres no way hes looking at models
Well only time I remember when he got wrong was last St.Patricks he was calling for a white St. Patrick day, it did get cold but it never snowed. I don't claim that he was accurate every other time but from what I remember he was usally correct.
Hes just going on animal behaviour and what he thinks their behaviour signify. He said himself on the 2fm broadcast that he doesn't take any credit for his forecasts, its the people that went before him who passed down the methods.
Last winter before the snow came here, I heard a fox behind my house, I never heard one before, it was barking. A very strange call it has indeed.
I thought it was interesting when he said 13 moons in the year is a very bad sign, its an old saying that the year would be very unsettled if there is 13 moons in the year. There was 2 in July.
Funny line from him when he was asking about the odds of a white Christmas he said , keep your money in your pocket and spend it on a glass.
Also he said 2 days before the big tsunami the animals went to the mountains.
Theres a programme on him on TG4 10th December.
I cant recall the particular signs but I suppose that is all in his book. Which I would like to get sometime.
Ill give that program a look. He has fascinated me for a long time.
Interesting article on animals behaviour before the 2004 tsunami
i talked about all of this in previous posts here. signs in nature. plants, animals, insects etc
Examples and scientific evidence to back that up please?!
Personally I call bull**** on it tbh!
How animals predict the weather
Animals sense the movements in air pressure that precede all weather changes. Watch the animals around you and see if you notice changes in their behaviour with various types of weather. Humans have used animal behaviour to predict weather and storms for centuries. Right before a rain, insect-eating birds, such as swallows, have a tendency to fly much lower to the ground, and bees and butterflies seem to disappear from the flowerbeds they usually visit.
Changing weather means changing air pressure. Decreasing air pressure indicates the approach of a low-pressure area, which often brings clouds and precipitation. Increasing air pressure often means that a high-pressure area is approaching, bringing a fine and clear day. A barometer measures air pressure and is a well-known instrument to predict weather.
There are also nature signs of changing air pressure that can be used to forecast weather. For example, on a fine and clear day, the smoke from the campfire rises steadily. If it starts swirling and descending, the air pressure decreases and bad weather will be expected.
Ability to accurately read cloud formations is important when you want to understand how to predict weather. Clouds are classified into different types, according to height and shape. Not all clouds bring rain; some are signs of fine weather.
During a fine day, the clouds are white, the higher the finer. Storm clouds are generally black, low, and massed in large clusters. If wet weather is approaching, the cloud will form a greyish veil. This means it is time to take shelter.
A red sky at either dusk or dawn is one of the most beautiful natural signs you can use to predict the weather. At dusk, a red sky indicates that the next day will probably be a dry and fine day. This is due to the sun shining through dust particles being pushed ahead of a high-pressure system bringing in dry air. A red sky at dawn often means that an approaching low-pressure system is bringing in a lot of moisture in the air. This is a fair indication that a storm is approaching.
Maybe you should read through that. It says that animals can sense real time changes with the ability the guess what might be coming in few hours time at most! Your point was that they could be used for long range forecasting!
Beasterly is asking for scientific evidence on a very non scientific approach to weather forecasting. Who knows how animals know what's coming, there are many things in this world man can't explain.
"No one knows how some animals sense earthquakes coming. Perhaps they pick up subtle sounds or vibrations in the earth; maybe they respond to subterranean gases released prior to earthquakes, or react to changes in the Earth’s electrical field. They may also sense in advance what is about to happen in a way that lies beyond current scientific understanding, through some kind of presentiment. "
Read the article for more.
I did read it. And the first sentance of my post was "Animals can sense changes in there immediate enviroment". And thats what it says my next post.
I made two points one for now casting and one for long range. Maybe i should have given the example below which aims to predict long range conditions.
Onion skins very thin
Mild winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough
Coming winter cold and rough
This verse, and so many others like it, attempts to predict long-range conditions. These predictions have stood the test of time only because they rely on selective memory: people remember when they have predicted correctly and forget when predictions don't hold.
One possible factor which could provide these predictions with a thin edge of credibility is that there is some degree of consistency in weather from year to year.
As for a more scientific veiw the saying "red sky at night" holds through imo.
They way I see it is like this;
If nature provides signs of long term weather then great but it is still of little use as the weather is forever changing so what nature senses today may be different to what they sense tomorrow as the weather is effected by many many variables. So due to the constant change, even if they do sense it in advance the changeable characteristics means they will always be changing their behaviour and therefore only provide us with short term signs. I suppose the senses are sufficient for nature to avoid weather by a narrow margin. After all animals often get caught out just like us; one example being the BBC documentary on Yellowstone national park in winter. The Bison couldn't sense the weather well enough and got caught in worse conditions than expected, which means they were not able to survive and had to attempt a dangerous, last minute attempt at reaching warmer climate (a hot spring). But inevitably, not all animals made it alive. Surely this shows that animals do not have the ability to sense the weather long termm otherwise they would have senses the weather coming and left in advance; as apparently they know the warmer safe haven and they always go there when temperatures get low enough to make it necessary. I'm assuming the weather hinted at manageable conditions but the weather was influenced by one of many variables that caused a change so quickly that the animals did not have the time to react.
However there is evidence that nature does sense short term changes, even people can but these days we have no reason to be in tune; in the same was a person who loses the use of their hands, eyes or ears often find they can improve other senses.
I totally agree here that yes, animals can pick up signs of impending events, but only on a very short timescale. There may be natural signals happening before an earthquake that they can pick up and that we just can't, but to say foxes or frogs or plants can tell what weather will like between 2 and 5 months ahead is pure and utter rubbish, and I challenge anybody to post evidence of such. Those examples posted above are purely on a short timescale, and prove nothing about a seasonal forecast.
I think I'll be waiting quite a while for this evidence, so while I wait......
I'm not certain but I believe the onion skin theory has been accepted as a false 'old wives tale'. Studies shown it not to be consistent or true. I am not a fan of old wives tales as there are many that are not true.
However I do like science and science often runs into people with logic issues. People often think that because something follows something else in seemingly chronological order, so frequently that it must be the cause. That is not always true and results in many old wives tales. Like cold weather and rain can make you catch a cold. Like someone stated above, that peoples memories are not great so they remember when things worked but not when they didn't.
Not that I am against the idea of there being natural signs but as I explained previously, the weather changes to much that an onion would be constantly having to change the thickness of its skin and I'm not sure that is possible. Many respected scientists believe and studies suggested recently that the sun has more influence on our temperatur than many people first believed. So onions would have to be able to sense the future solar flare levels on the sun, could they accuratly sense that, I'm not sure.
But evolutuion is far older, wiser and more experienced than man and has created pretty amazing things that are well adapted so who knows.
The comparison between earthquakes & weather doesn't stack up. Many earthquakes/tsunami are preceded by seismic activity. Where wildlife is thought to predict earthquakes they only do so over a short time period.
Animals such as the weather loach & some leeches do react to atmospheric pressure but that is a long way from predicting weather.
It would be a huge evolutionary benefit for an animal to predict weather. So the fact that they haven't evolved such skill is a sure sign that it is impossible. Nature reflects the past & not the future.
I would agree that it would be more of a short term thing. I don't think they can pick up weather signs in 5 months in advance. Mr.Postman might disagree with us there though.
Many people observed strange goings on with animals and nature last winter before the big freeze.
These observations are noted but cant be proven scientifically.
So this all boils down to whether u think the observations are just a complete freak coincidence or that they actually showed some sign of the weather coming.