True. Fingers crossed it's closer to 8. 7 even?
That was going to be my next point. People on higher points seem to be more likely to post it online too. Also there is potential for people inputting p=false scores too to drive the average up and freak other people out.
ucg was 729 1st round last year.dropped to 728 random selection ,but i failed to get in even on 728,so you can see why i dont consider that it dropped.on 743 this year so hoping !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gut is about as accurate a guess as we can make in fairness.. too many variables to be making accurate predictions!
I think it'll be less than 8-12 and more likely a 5~ point increase in the lower points colleges by final round offers for a few reasons:
8-12 would be consistent with the last few years where HPAT scores inflated year on year, which is not the case this year. Less people have scored over 180 in the hpat this year compared with last year (according to comparison of ACER graph data, which isn't 100% accurate)
Once over 550, maths bonus can only give you +5, absolute maximum
The only spanner in the works is the number of people being pushed up from 525 to 550 and into contention.. but the probability of being 525-550 range AND 90th percentile AND using full 25 bonus is very small.. I don't think it will be enough to effect points 'that' significantly.
My most optimistic, best case scenario guess:
For me it's because you have a certain number of people each year getting in with a leaving of 530 or 540 and a good HPAT... To the people who would normally have filled this category, the 25 bonus points will be worth between around 10 or 20 points more, rather than 5 points (for people at 550+ anyway)... Leading to a bigger jump in cut off points!
Well, that makes sense in my head... I could well be getting something wrong...!
I'm going to throw my prediction in too for the craic of it, but I have no real idea of what the rise is going to be...
TCD - 748
UCD - 745
Cork - 742
RCSI - 742
Galway - 739
True. But thats a smaller subgroup of the total applicants. And even smaller then when you exclude those that did pass maths.
Fair point.. Hmmm... I dunno, the HPAT these days seems to be far more about preparing for the exam with courses, practice material, etc. The only other source of increased points I can think of is (maybe????) that previously, good and bad HPAT results were pretty much spread evenly among all applicants. However, now good HPAT scores are increasingly linked with students who do well in the Leaving Cert, too. This would just be because these students are normally the ones who do more preparation.. And if a student prepares for one, they probably prepare for the other too!
Just a hypothesis
six hours to go - i am told no point getting up at six am as the site will crash??
I don't think it will crash completely tbh. There haven't been any major problems in the last few years, nothing that would delay it by any major amount of time. That being said, you don't have to accept it at 6am on the dot, so having a lie in will do no one any harm!
Somebody had posted the points up here at about half past midnight last year from the Irish Times-will it be the same this year?
nothing left to do but wait with baited breath... hopefully some newsroom folk will pt us out of our misery sooner rather than later
Ah sure run down to the shop there, Hollingr, and pick up a copy of the Irish Times to fill us in
Irish Times has Monday's stories up, but nothing related to CAO afaics.
Of course. Fffffff****