Any sign of the Donegal postman's prediction for this winter? He was right the last two years in that he predicted severe cold.
There's also a temperature at 2m option now as well, not sure how accurate it is but it'll give a general idea anyway
The links are along the top, [Temp. 850hPa] for the upper air temps and [Temp. 2m] for the ground level temps.
The chart you posted above is used mainly to get an idea of wind direction and strength, air flows clockwise around high pressure and anti-clockwise around low pressure, the closer the lines are together the stronger the wind. So the wind on the chart above will be coming from the north-west but the colours aren't really that relevant to conditions on the ground so its not as cold as it looks!
Probably a bit overwhelming at first but its not too hard to get a hang of it, this time last year I didn't really know anything about them but after a year I have a decent idea of what to expect without reading any forecasts
I have reason to believe ( not psychic and probably not scientific, not a gut instinct, just by observation) that this winter is going to be typical damp blustery, atlantic temp ( 5-12 c) winter, like last January. My reasoning is:
1. Sun is spitting out CME otherwise the UV level is higher: Scientist believe the cold winter is due to the unusual quiteness of the Sun. The sun has a eleven year cycle, the start is quite and towards the end it creates sunspots that shoot out cmes The sun recently woke up and is active, but its slumber this time was a little longer than expected, hence the low UV IN 09/10. Its up and going again.
2. September this year is the wettest in some years, we had a wet September last year though, however this never carried into October. This is due to the end of th anti cyclonic weather over the Atlantic. If you remember are snow cam from the east and it cleared once the prevailing wind from the Atlantic came back. A week Atlantic pressure and you will see the eastern winds back.
3.Cloud cover: September was a record for dullness, the more cloud cover, the less frost. October is still dark.
4. Ireland is prepared for a long winter, we bought tons of rock salt via the states coffers, its traditional we get this wrong
5. Its unusually warm: We had a cold summer, but its October now and many have not turned their central heatings.I actually read an article that flowers are reblooming, unnatural;y. Sorry I dont have proof.
I am certainly no weather expert, hardly an amateur either but I was interested in your last point regarding October and the current temps so I had a look at the stats on met.ie for October 2010, 2009 and 2008 - from what I can see there is a trend for progressively warmer Octobers over the last 3 with the colder temps arriving later each year... you need to download a PDF for each months data, prob an easier way that I'm not aware of however!
Yes, that is quite conclusive. But I feel, in my honest opinion that it will be a wet winter. I just think the weather is again acting differently as per the last few years. But it wouldnt surprise me if there is a blizzard next week
Medium term prediction doesnt seem to be an exact science (IMHO), more of a pseudoscience, even from the experts.
Excellent thread by the way.
em october weather doesnt really have any bearing on the weather of the next 3 months(well no scientific proof). but going by your logic we should expect a cold winter then,your saying this october is very warm well usually hotter than average octobers are followed by cold winters, all the last 3 octobers were above average temps and look what followed those 3 years nd it wasnt just those 3 years a lot of very cold winters were preceeded by a warm october. i think its a bit early to be hammering the nail in the coffin right now, i think theres a very severe winter a coming
Think we have found a right young weather enthusiast in you bb
re to point 1- sunspot activity is still way below what it should be and bear in mind there could be a lag effect, and the increase in activity may not take effect until next winter or later.
re point 2- that doesnt really make much sense, september wether isnt a very good indicator of how cold our winter will be!ireland obviously will not be dominated by easterly winds for 12 months a year this sint siberia! ireland will always be dominated by both atlantic depressions and easterlies (and other wind directions too of course) the easterly winds are caused by northern blocking and obviously the northern blocking has to give in at some point and rebuild again later. much of our summer was dominated by northern blocking giving us the cold summer weather, northern blocking it just so happens has stopped now since start of september but is forecast to begin again end of october!!
3- again doesnt really mean we wont have a cold winter.could all change very quickly.
4- haha true now you got me there
5- as i said in my last post.
so i think you shoudnt jump the shark too quickly, this winter could well turn out to be a very cold one,fingers crossed anyway are you hoping for a cold or mild one?
ha thanks but i really dont know much i just try to act smart and look like i know loads
You are probably right, but the my point of the increased activity over the Atlantic is a different event from the last few years. Then again, you could be spot on as the experts are saying the same.
Hoping for a cold one, love the snow . But cant see it happening.
Posting this after your knowledgeable posts kind of undoes the effect of the good posts!!!
Last January wasn't Atlantic weather if i recall correctly, im sure it was colder and dryier than normal. prehaps you mean February.
From Memory, it was a month dominated by prevailing winds. Therefore warmer thawing weather, warmer than early December.