Very interesting. The final third is quite prophetic.
In fact things have turned out to be much worse than supposed here, as an international bruiser of a recession came along at the same time. Nominal wages have declined some 13%, and interest rates are rock bottom, which is more than you would have expected, but the problem hasn't gone away.
Perhaps we have a different interpretation of nasty outcome? Anyway, I'm not standing up for this piece, just thought you lot would like it.
Alan Ahearne should have stayed in Academia.
He is now in the process of ruining the country and his reputation in due course.
But then again these Aherns seem to be delusional types.
One Ahern got us into this problem and another is going to get us out of it. I think not.
David McWilliams is calling it right at the moment. The Bank guarantee must not be renewed and Anglo must be allowed to collapse.
We cannot afford to rescue Anglo at a cost to the taxpayer of €22 billion.
NAMA interest repayments alone on loans to support bad loans are adding €4 billion to out budget deficit annually.
We need an Election now before we are totally screwed by the fixers in Fianna Fail.
That was my position too but did you see him on Tonight on Monday and Primetime last night (Tuesday)?
He now seems totally rational. No more Popes Children or Deckland. He now seems to realise the dire situation that we are in and he is asking some hard questions of the current regime who haven't a notion of what they are doing.
One correction to this, as stated by Alan Dukes, we are not even sure that 22 billion will be the final cost.
The government and NAMAers may claim that the NAMA amounts are not adding to our debt partially due to some fancy off balance sheet maneouvers and also claims that we are buying viable loans (anyone listen to Mick Wallace on this point this morning ?), but the bank recapitalisation sure as hell is.
You, like a lot of economists or would be economists, may not like the guy because he breaks it down into very basic level for the normal punter and adds labels to to describe social or economic groups, or agree with his stance on leaving the Euro, but you can't deny he has spoken a lot of truth during the last 10 years.
Please tell us would you rather listen to a bank's economist speaking in pure economists parlance all the while telling us sh**e or McWilliams using his quasi journo speak telling you what is damm well nearer the truth ?
I would rather not listen to false dichotomies.
He gave a lecture in UL on the 8th of April 2010 about "Irelands Economic Crises and its implications for the Labour Market.
Even though I was dreading the lecture I will say that what he said made sense and I came out of it with a sense of optimism. Personally I think its a god job he got out of academia (although if he was lecturing it would be amazing as well) and put his talents to good use.
He knows what he's talking about... I think he has us on the right track for recovery.. maybe I'm wrong but with what the other economists are saying... Leave the Euro, create a new bank, demolish our banking sector by letting a bank go bust...
It was OK to be optimistic in April 2009.
What about all the revelations we have had since?
I am afraid it is now time that we realised that we are being burdened with unnecessary liabilities by the political cronies of financial hoods.
Sorry I got the date wrong it was the 8th April 2010... my bad
Alan Ahern's "predictions":
What has actually happened:
1.Decline in nominal wages. Yes.
2.Tax cuts and increased Government spending.
Tax cuts? No!
Increased Government spending? No!
It is not relevant to consider the money "invested" in bailing out our banking system as increased Government spending.
3.Policy makers sorely tested. Yes.
Alan Ahearne was praised for his wishy washy Economist-speak article on the Irish property market bust possibility.
He is the policy maker in the Department of Finance that has presided over eighteen months of the total disaster that has been the last two years of Government.
The man does not seem to be following his own advice. His experience at the US Fed is no comfort when we observe how the Fed is in the process of destroying the US dollar and all fiat currencies in due course.