M.T. Cranium Registered User

Sunday, 18 September, 2011

TODAY ... Rather windy to start, especially around Donegal where a northerly gale may continue for part of the morning. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds 15-30 mph should ease off to westerly 10-20 mph by afternoon. Showers will become much less frequent and sunshine may prevail by afternoon, with cloud rapidly increasing again by sunset. Highs 14-17 C, mildest in the south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, outbreaks of rain advancing from west to east, potential for 5-10 mms heavier in the north-central counties. Lows 9-12 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending, some breaks in the overcast developing to hazy sunshine at times, moderate WSW winds 15-30 mph, and a bit warmer, more humid. Highs around 17 C. Further showers could develop.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, drizzle at times, or light rain especially in Connacht, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C south, 14 C north. Moderate southwest winds 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy at times (W 25-40 mph), a few showers developing in the north, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild to warm, humid, outbreaks of rain possible by later in the day, lows near 9 C and highs 16-19 C. Potentially very windy by late in the day.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, windy, lows near 12 C and highs near 16.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, windy, showers. There are some signs of a warmer and briefly dry spell following the weekend (but rather tentative at present).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A strong frontal zone has developed across the south-central U.S. with heavy to severe storms in a few places, and quite a contrast between summery heat to the south and autumn chill further north. Widespread frost in the Great Lakes region and inland northeast states. Somewhat warmer in western Canada although not above normal values.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few brief showers, highs near 17 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Monday, 19 September, 2011

TODAY ... Morning showers ending soon in the southeast, with brighter if rather cloudy weather spreading from west to east, some hazy sun at times, possible light rain by evening in the west as another weak front arrives ... winds generally WSW 15-25 mph ... highs 15-17 C, milder in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at times, hazy or misty, mild, lows 10-13 C. Rainfalls only 2-5 mms.

TUESDAY ... Showers ending, partly cloudy for most, isolated showers in northwest, moderate westerly winds backing to south-southwesterly late in the day, mild again with highs 16-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming quite breezy south and windy north with a few blustery showers developing, winds WSW 20-40 mph (30-50 mph Donegal, Mayo, parts of Connacht and Ulster). Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mms mainly northern half of the country.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, not as windy, just a few showers, lows near 9 or 10 C and highs 17-19 C. Winds backing to southerly and becoming strong in Connacht and west Ulster by evening.

FRIDAY ... Overnight strong winds and squally showers, continuing at times during the day, winds SSW to WSW 30-50 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, outbreaks of showery rain, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A warmer spell may develop as high pressure over central Europe diverts the jet stream well north.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers or thunderstorms in a few parts of the southeast, outbreaks of cool rain further north in the north central plains states, but northeast and Great Lakes continuing mild and dry ... warming up slowly in the west especially inland and east of the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was partly cloudy and rather muggy with cloud and a few brighter intervals, highs near 20 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Tuesday, 20 September, 2011

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals in the south, showers eventually developing in Connacht and spreading to other regions late afternoon although some places may remain dry ... moderate SW winds backing southerly 15-25 mph, rather mild to warm with highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals south, overcast north, occasional showers, heavier rain developing in west and north towards morning, lows 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Blustery especially in northern counties, winds westerly at 30-50 mph (20-40 mph inland south), heavy showers some with hail and thunder, rainfalls 5-15 mms heavier inland north, somewhat cooler especially in Connacht, highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, only a few isolated showers by morning, largely dry in most places, mild, southwest winds backing to southerly 15-25 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C south, 15 C north.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, breezy or windy, showers by afternoon or evening with 5-15 mms by midnight, strong SSW winds 30-50 mph developing, mild to warm, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, frequent showers, 10-20 mms rain likely, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy, rain ending and some clearing, warm, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C inland south, 16 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The last week of the month may average 2-4 C degrees above normal with occasional showers but the chance of some warm sunshine at times.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A rather weak storm track near the U.S.-Canada border is pulling slightly warmer air back north with outbreaks of rain but temperatures are only recovering to near normal values. The patterns are generally rather bland with weak pressure gradients.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine, mild to warm, highs near 21 C on Monday.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Wednesday, 21 September, 2011

TODAY ... During the morning, some blustery showers that could develop into thunderstorms will move across Leinster and east Ulster, clearing eastward by mid-day. Southern counties may get the tail end of this front about then also, but some places could see very brief showers. Meanwhile, the north will be swept by a second band of steady rain becoming squally showers later in the day, then partial clearing will develop, all of this combined with strong westerly winds 30-50 mph (that will be more moderate in the south). Rainfalls will vary from 10-15 mms north to 2-5 mms south. Highs about 13 C in the north and 15-17 C in the south.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers although a gradual clearing trend from west to east with some hill fog or mist persisting near the Atlantic coasts, mild, lows around 10 C. Winds not as strong after midnight but remaining about 15 or 20 mph from the southwest.

THURSDAY ... Some intervals of hazy sunshine, although considerable higher cloud, a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain mainly near south and west coasts, very mild especially inland and east in a south to southwest flow with winds 10-20 mph, highs 16-19 C.

FRIDAY ... After a partly cloudy night with lows 6-9 C, the day will see increasing cloud, showers developing and becoming rather windy again (SW 20-40 mph), potential for 10-20 mms rain by early Saturday, highs 15-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain, some clearing later but further showers likely by evening, mild, foggy in parts of north and over higher ground generally, lows near 11 C and highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud once the overnight rain ends, rather warm inland, lows near 12 C and highs 18-20 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week may have one or two further intervals of showers especially in the west and north, but there are also signs of warm, dry air trying to push northwest from France through southern England towards at least the southeast if not larger portions of Ireland, so a fine spell of autumnal weather may develop late in the month.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showery east coast, warm and dry in many other regions, especially on the west coast where it was quite summery.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm on Tuesday, high about 24 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Thursday, 22 September, 2011

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some brighter intervals developing by mid-day or afternoon in northern and some central counties ... mild to warm, highs about 17 or 18 C ... moderate southwest winds backing southerly ... sprinkles of light rain or drizzle across the inland south, with heavier showers later near the Atlantic coasts. Rainfalls there about 3-5 mms, otherwise trace to 2 mms.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, further light showers mainly west, mild, lows near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Some morning sunshine followed by thickening cloud, outbreaks of rain by late afternoon or evening, 5-10 mms by Saturday morning, with highs of about 15-17 C, then foggy overnight with lows about 12 C. Winds moderate southerly 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers ending east, brighter intervals developing with some hazy sunshine at times, warm inland, highs 17-19 C. Another interval of rain developing by evening in the west. Winds moderate SW'ly 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY ... Overnight rain becoming heavy and possibly thundery, continuing part or all of the day in eastern counties, gradually clearing away in the west, although some lingering fog and drizzle near the coast, moderate south to southwest winds. Lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Gradual clearing of early fog and mist, hazy, warm. Lows near 11 and highs near 19 C inland (15-16 C north).

OUTLOOK ... A warm and settled interval may develop especially across the southeast as this pattern extends from France across the U.K. towards Ireland from a southeast direction. Further west it could also be settled and warm at times but a frontal band just offshore may occasionally spread rain into outer west coast districts. There is some chance of seeing temperatures near or above 20 C during this spell. Dense overnight fog is likely to become a recurrent theme.


The general theme of North American weather continues to be warm/dry in the west and cool to near normal, unsettled in the east, but this pattern will slowly flatten out and the warmth will expand to cover most regions over the next few days. The models make little end result from Tropical Storm Ophelia which should pass the Virgin Islands and head northwest.

Meanwhile, Japan had a strong typhoon landfall on Wednesday afternoon their time. The typhoon came inland west of Tokyo and although near cat-4 intensity offshore, the weather stations between Tokyo and the city of Hammamatsu all reported roughly cat-1 or cat-2 conditions at landfall (winds near Tokyo gusted to about 80-100 mph). The storm then moved inland west and north of Tokyo and re-entered the Pacific at tropical storm strength near Sendai, where last March's tsunami also hit. The storm is now moving north of the Kuril Island chain across the southern Sea of Okhotsk and should become extratropical soon near Kamchatka in eastern Siberia (Russia).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a cloudy day with occasional light rain and a high near 20 C. Foggy conditions are now developing at 11:15 pm local time (still Wednesday here -- in Japan of course it is now late Thursday afternoon).

NEWS about LONG-RANGE FORECAST for WINTER ... I am working on a long-range forecast but it won't be ready until mid-October at the earliest.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Friday, 23 September, 2011

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start, although a few brighter intervals in the south and east, while showers continue to move through Connacht and Ulster. Heavier bursts of rain likely by afternoon west, evening east, 5-10 mms in most places, as winds continue southerly at about 15-20 mph. Rather foggy or misty over higher ground and some coastlines. Highs 15-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty, becoming foggy, rain ending in western counties but continuing sporadically elsewhere. Lows around 12 C in a mild southerly flow.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers ending in the east, partly cloudy and rather warm inland, foggy or misty near south and west coasts in a moderate southerly wind. Highs 16-18 C inland, 14-16 C closer to shorelines.

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain may develop with potential for 20-30 mms, some thundery showers especially south and east, and possible strong winds around Wexford and nearby southeast counties (from a SSW direction) followed by more widespread moderate westerly winds as clouds begin to break late afternoon west, evening or overnight east. The morning lows will be 10-12 C and afternoon highs 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a few isolated showers, winds westerly and rather brisk at first, then backing to southerly again, drizzle or low cloud becoming widespread, after some hazy sunshine in a few spots ... highs around 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Tuesday to end of the week, a warm spell seems likely at least for parts of the south and east well inland, where hazy sunshine could boost temperatures into the 19-24 C range. Coastal areas and parts of the west and north may be held to 16-19 C by more frequent low cloud and drizzle in a southeasterly flow that could veer more southerly at times near the Atlantic coast. Anyone travelling to the UK or France is even more likely to encounter some very warm autumn weather as the highest pressures will be near the North Sea and Belgium into eastern France. Extensive fog or mist is likely overnight in this pattern.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Not much change, extensive cloud and drizzle or light rain from a weak upper level disturbance over the inland eastern states, but a warm, dry pattern over much of central and western regions well north into Canada, with the storm track across Yukon and the NWT. Ophelia is having trouble maintaining much of a circulation and could be gone at some point tomorrow despite a five-day outlook taking it well to the northwest ... but it could redevelop there after a day or two of inactivity.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Warm and humid despite a lot of cloud and a few sharp showers this morning mostly, 20 C feeling more like 24 C by Thursday afternoon.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Saturday, 24 September, 2011

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny in most places, although intervals of low cloud and drizzle likely in western Galway and Mayo extending at times into Donegal and nearby counties. Some fog or mist likely on outer south coast. Winds generally moderate southerly 10-20 mph, highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain spreading into west, moderate southerly winds rising to 15-30 mph, lows 11-13 C. Rainfalls overnight 5-10 mms west.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, heavy showers or thunderstorms and some heavy rainfalls likely in south central to inland eastern districts. 15-30 mms of rain possible, some spot flooding. Becoming rather windy especially near the south coast (SSW 20-40 mph, veering to WSW 20-40 mph). Highs near 15 or 16 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning showers ending, foggy, then variable cloud by mid-day with some sunny intervals especially for the inland southeast, winds diminishing and backing to southerly later, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C west and north to 19 C inland southeast.

TUESDAY ... Showers near west coast spreading some distance inland and across the northwest later, hazy sunshine at times further east, warm, moderate southerly winds backing to southeast, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C west to 21 C east.

OUTLOOK ... Several more warm days likely, with the pattern remaining somewhat unsettled in the west and more settled in the east, winds staying southeast to south mainly, and tending to become lighter as high pressure edges closer at times ... potential for temperatures to rise into 22-24 C range in parts of the eastern and even central counties, more likely to stay in the 18 to 21 C range west and far north, south coast due to sea breeze effects, also some risk of fog or low cloud near coasts, and widespread dense fog patches in valleys inland overnight and morning hours.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... It continues near-record warm across western Canada and the northwest U.S. with highs near 30 C in parts of Alberta and Montana on Friday. Temperatures closer to the Great Lakes are near normal values in a showery regime of light winds around a weak upper disturbance that is also spreading rain up the U.S. east coast. Warm and dry further west across the central U.S. Ophelia has managed to fight off the shear and is chugging along near the Virgin Islands towards the Bahamas where another disturbance appears to be trying to reach tropical levels overnight.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, warm, humid, some light rain Friday, clearing by late afternoon, highs near 23 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Sunday, 25 September, 2011

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, some thunderstorms developing, heaviest rain from southwest towards Dublin and Meath (later morning to late afternoon) giving 20-30 mms locally, otherwise about 10-15 for most ... moderate southerly winds veering to southwest later, 20-40 mph, with high temperatures about 15-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty or foggy as the rain slowly tapers off to drizzle, moderate southwest winds, mild, lows 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few intervals of hazy sunshine developing inland southeast, mild to warm, highs 16-19 C. A few light showers will push north along the west coast and there could also be brief intervals of rain or drizzle near the east coast. Winds backing to southerly 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine in eastern counties, mostly cloudy elsewhere with a few outbreaks of showery rain near west coast, mild to warm, southerly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C (possibly 21 C inland southeast).

OUTLOOK ... Little change on Wednesday with another surge of showery rain moving north near the Atlantic coasts, and some chance of hazy sunshine at times in the east, then the warm, dry conditions may spread a bit further west with time and eventually the wind field may back through southeast to east and northeast, extending the warm, dry conditions to the west coast and introducing cooler sea breeze conditions to the east coast, but that may take about a week to ten days. A fairly prolonged quiet spell may develop with high pressure settling over the north.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... There continues to be a feed of very warm air of subtropical origins into western Canada and the northwest to north central states, and highs near 30 C have been reported in Alberta. Well north of Vancouver, some heavy rain is spreading across the coast with flooding in some isolated regions near Bella Coola, B.C. ... and it continues very wet in the northeast U.S. from a weak but persistent disturbance there. Ophelia has continued a rather disorganized trek towards Bermuda, while Philippe has formed further east and looks set to drift north slowly in the general direction of the Azores but then it will be forced to a crawl by the high mentioned in the Irish long-range forecast. It could become a factor in the Irish forecast as a source of moisture in about two weeks' time.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Some sunshine, but mostly cloudy, warm and dry on Saturday, highs about 22 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Monday, 26 September, 2011

The main theme for the week will be a gradual warming trend affecting the eastern half of the country more directly as the western counties remain rather close to a persistent frontal zone with waves of moisture moving north, much of that offshore, but some coming inland about as far east as mid-Ulster south through Athlone to about Cork. The warm spell should gain the upper hand over the cloud and showers by the end of the week and extend further west by next weekend to cover just about all districts by then. The situation is somewhat uncertain and a slight shift in the pattern or extensive low cloud could cut into potential record high temperatures that seem very likely to develop over parts of England and France, and could also develop in east-central Ireland at least on one or two days out of the period ... and the warmth could last until the following weekend and some distance beyond that before gradually fading out in a resumed westerly flow that may eventually yield to a colder northerly.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy west and north, low cloud or fog developing near south coast, brief showers (trace - 2 mms rain), some hazy sun at times inland southeast. Moderate S-SW winds, highs near 17 C west, south coast, 19 C east, central and north.

TONIGHT ... Misty with some fog, mild and humid, showers becoming heavier in west towards morning, lows 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers across west and northwest, cloudy central counties but some hazy sunshine at times in the east. Warm in a southerly wind at 15 to 30 mph (20-40 west coast). Highs 17 C west to 20 C inland east, north.

WEDNESDAY ... Risk of heavy showers in far west, possible thunder, but continuing dry and warm further east, winds backing slightly to SSE 15-30 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C west, 22 C east.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Similar with further rain at times in the west, possibly heavy again around Thursday night, and (on a knife-edge, admittedly) staying dry for parts of the east with some warm hazy sunshine at times, winds backing further to SE 15-30 mph. Highs both days could reach 22-24 C in parts of the east, despite some coastal sea breezes, but remaining closer to 20 C west. Note if travelling to England or France, highs there could reach 29-32 C in some places.

OUTLOOK for SATURDAY-SUNDAY 1-2 OCTOBER ... This appears to be a more settled period for all regions as the warm high ridges west and pushes the storm track away from Ireland. Although the light east to southeast breezes could prove a bit cooler near the Irish Sea coasts, most regions could get well into the 20s in this pattern (24-27 C would be possible given enough sunshine) and except for a few outer headlands the west and north coasts should share in the warmth (at least 21-24 C), with sunshine spreading further west at this point.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warm spell seems likely to break down gradually as high pressure slowly transfers in a generally northwest direction through the first week of October ... eventually this could lead to a much cooler northerly circulation developing, but timing that from this distance seems very approximate, I am speculating around 5-8 October for an eventual reversal to below normal temperatures. It could take even longer.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunday continued record warm in many parts of western Canada with readings of 31-32 C in some places, trending down near the coast as a weak front moved inland giving showers there. The eastern third of North America remains somewhat unsettled although warm to the east of a stagnant pool of cloud and rain near the mid-Atlantic states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some heavy showers at times on Sunday, but clearing slowly late afternoon, humid, around 19 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Tuesday, 27 September, 2011

TODAY ... Western counties will be mostly cloudy, with sporadic light showers giving 1-3 mms on average, and quite warm with southerly winds at 20-35 mph, highs 18-20 C. Further east, intervals of hazy sunshine, warm especially inland, highs 19-22 C. Winds SSE 10-20 mph. Some low cloud and fog will persist near south coast, occasionally blowing some distance inland before breaking up. This will leave Cork and Waterford with variable cloud, spots of drizzle, and highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, very mild in southerly winds 15-25 mph, lows only falling to 13-15 C. Spots of rain continuing near west coast, not much accumulation, trace to 2 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... An interval of heavier rain could develop near the west coast but much of this will be offshore where strong southerly winds (to force 7) will develop. On land, winds should reach SSE 25-40 mph at times, with potential for 5-10 mms of rain in some places. Further east, the day should remain dry with a few sunny intervals, and continued quite warm and humid with highs 18-23 C. Low cloud and fog again likely near south coast.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY ... Somewhat less chance of rain in the west on Thursday, but still a few light showers at times, in a more moderate southerly backing to southeasterly 10-20 mph occasionally 20-30 mph, highs near 18 C. Heavy rain may move into the southwest some time on Friday and then could (about 50% likely) move about halfway across the country leaving parts of Ulster and north Leinster dry.

For the east, intervals of warm sunshine on Thursday, highs 20-24 C. South coast likely to see fog only hugging the coast in these somewhat lighter winds, but low cloud may try to move inland at times. North and west should benefit from the backed winds (SE 10-20 mph) allowing warmer air to spread into parts of Connacht and Ulster. Overnight lows will continue very mild at 13-16 C. Rain may hold temperatures down somewhat (17-19 C) and according to some guidance this rain could become heavy especially in west Munster.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rain may try to push from the southwest across most other regions but the warm, dry pattern could hold over parts of the north and central, possibly also southeast counties, with the rain most likely in Munster where it could become heavy or thundery. At this early stage, I wouldn't make or break too many plans for the weekend, because the models have quite a spread and conditions could range from very warm and sunny to chilly with fog and drizzle, and this might actually be the outcome in different regions if a front stalls through central Ireland. Also the system may weaken after mid-day Saturday with the sunshine trying to break through low cloud again.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The remnants of the ridge of high pressure may undergo a general westward drift but may try to hold on while colder air begins to mass to the north waiting for the high to edge further west. This may begin to happen as early as Tuesday 4th or as late as Friday of the first week of October.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... More of the same for most, but heavy rains and strong winds from remnants of Typhoon Roke's energy on the west coast with widespread power outages and trees down on Vancouver Island. Although somewhat cooler on Monday across western Canada, a new surge of warmth will begin today. Meanwhile, the persistent upper low hangs tough over Ohio and Michigan with another wave of tropical moisture moving up the east coast throughout this week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, windy, periods of rain, highs near 15 C on Monday. Although not excessively windy at my location, a little further west gusts of 100 km/hr and higher were recorded (from the SSE).

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Wednesday, 28 September, 2011

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and very warm for most, with highs 21-24 C, although low cloud and fog may produce much cooler conditions near the south coast (15-17 C). Some east coast locations could see slight cooling from sea breezes near shore. Meanwhile, in the far west, cloud will increase and light rain could begin late afternoon or evening. Winds generally SSE about 10-20 mph but 20-30 mph west coast.

TONIGHT ... Rain edging further east to cover most of the western counties, 2-5 mms there ... hazy or cloudy and very mild further east ... lows generally about 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of light rain in western counties and occasional showers to about central (from north to south) Ireland, some chance of hazy sunshine redeveloping across the inland east, highs 17-19 C west and 19-23 C in the east, once again rather foggy near south coast and about 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain in southwest, occasional rain in Connacht and central Munster, cloudy but dry in east and some chance of hazy sun at times north Leinster and parts of Ulster. Continuing quite warm, about 17 C with the rain, and 19-22 C with any brighter weather in the northeast. Rainfalls 10-20 mms likely in Kerry, Cork, south Clare, Limerick with some thundery downpours possible. Light to moderate southeast winds.

FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain with some thundery downpours edging closer to the inland southeast and midlands then fading during Saturday, some parts of the east and Ulster could either remain dry or see much less rain, temperatures steady 14-16 C with the rain and 16-19 C in brighter weather to northeast. Dense fog developing near coasts and over hills especially for west Munster. Winds falling off to light easterly then variable, north 10-20 mph at times near the Atlantic coast.

There has been a slight trend in guidance to hold this rain back over the west more, and it would not surprise me if the eventual outcome was a sharper frontal band giving persistent heavy rain in a north-south band across west-central counties with the east perhaps remaining dry. In any case, most of the U.K. will remain dry through this phase and the front is expected to dissolve rather than moving any further east.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with mid-day and afternoon sunny intervals, lows near 10 and highs near 17 C, some persistent fog or low cloud near outer coasts, temperatures around 12-15 C with the fog.

OUTLOOK ... Another dry spell will begin when the front dissolves Sunday and could last a few days, and temperatures may warm up again although not quite as warm as today or tomorrow. Highs of 16-19 C are likely with this second phase of the warm spell. A shift to more northerly winds has been pushed back on most guidance to about 8-10 October now.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The pattern remains almost stuck but shows signs of changing over the next two days. But for Tuesday, it continued quite warm across most of the west and the north-central U.S., while heavy rain edged east through PA as the upper low drifted east. Ophelia seems to be regenerating and could now become a hurricane near or east of Bermuda by Friday, then head for Newfoundland. Philippe has never been much of an entity and continues to drift northwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, a few brief showers by evening on Tuesday, highs near 17 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Thursday, 29 September, 2011

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny and very warm again with highs 21-24 C for many, with some low cloud or fog near south coast at times, and slight risk of showers moving in from the south. Winds SSW 20-30 mph. Western counties somewhat cloudier with highs 18-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain at times near southwest coasts, 3-7 mms by morning there, very mild and foggy or misty elsewhere, lows 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain slowly spreading north and slightly east from a starting point in west Munster. Some parts of the east could remain largely dry, and brighter with even some chance of hazy sunshine (mainly Wicklow, Dublin, coastal Leinster to east Ulster).

With the rain in west-central counties (heavier inland) amounts may reach 10 to 20 mms, and highs will be 15-18 C. Further east, where brighter, highs could reach low 20s.

SATURDAY ... Some rain at first mainly central to northern counties, but gradually clearing through the day, hazy or foggy in some areas especially west coast, somewhat cooler for most, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C but parts of the southeast may recover to 19-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some showery outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming rather windy from the west, veering northwest in Connacht, showers, some squally in the north, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C south, 14 C north.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool for Ulster and parts of Leinster, closer to normal values elsewhere, with a generally W-NW flow, some showers, some sunny intervals each day, and possibly a return to settled weather late in the week as high pressure will try to recover from being pushed away early in the week by the strong northwesterly flow (that will really be aimed more at the UK, North Sea and central Europe by mid-week).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Another warm, dry spell developing over the west, likely to peak Friday but today pleasantly warm near 22 C in many parts of western Canada and the northwest U.S. ... remnants of a very persistent upper low are drifting east now into New England later today, bringing heavy showers and a few thunderstorms, and ending a warm spell there, although only slightly cooler at first. Ophelia, now recovered to tropical storm status, is heading just to the east of Bermuda and then on to Newfoundland. Philippe is "messing around" in the Sargasso Sea doing very little other than redistributing floating seaweed.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a crisp sunny "fall" day with a high of about 18 C. Clear and chilly this evening but warming up tomorrow (Thursday).

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Friday, 30 September, 2011

TODAY ... Western counties, heavy downpours becoming thundery in some places, 10-20 mms with potential for 30 mms locally ... temperatures steady near 15 C in the rain, brighter by late afternoon or evening, but some hill fog developing ... eastern counties, starting warm and hazy with some sunshine, then cloudy, highs 19-22 C, light rain spreading in except some places near east coast may remain dry, 3-7 mms rain by late afternoon and evening, turning slightly cooler then. Winds generally SSE 10-20 mph but becoming variable in the rainfall and light northeast towards any clearing trend later.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of showery light rain but not as heavy as today, and also becoming more confined to Ulster and north Leinster, but any clearing trend leading to low cloud and fog, then spotty light rain again for central counties, lows about 12 C for most, 7-9 C northwest.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers or outbreaks of moderate rain, heavier around central and northeast counties, still rather warm in southeast with highs 17-19 C, closer to 15 C west and north, with some brighter conditions developing in western Mayo to Donegal.

SUNDAY ... Further cloud and showers, but also a few brighter intervals, lows generally 8-10 C (a bit cooler in parts of northwest, milder in southeast) ... highs 15-18 C, light and variable winds generally.

MONDAY ... Becoming breezy from west, windy at times far north (20-40 mph) and showery, remaining quite mild to warm in south, cooler far north, lows near 8 C and highs 14-18 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showery, cool especially north. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... More settled once high pressure rebuilds near the south coast, may remain unsettled north. Temperatures may recover slightly towards 18-19 for highs, although nights could be a lot cooler than this current warm spell.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday will be a very warm day in many western regions, with highs 27-30 C expected in parts of southern BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Montana. Also rather warm in the northeast U.S. with one final frontal wave emanating from the Great Lakes upper low that is finally collapsing to allow a colder northerly flow there this weekend. Snow is expected north and east of Lake Superior. Chilly rain will fall further south.

Meanwhile, Ophelia has become a hurricane and may come dangerously close to Bermuda around Sunday morning.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was partly cloudy and rather warm with highs 20-22 C.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Saturday, 1 October, 2011

TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy in parts of the south this afternoon and evening. Potential flooding from 15-30 mms of rain, from central Munster northeast towards Kildare and west Dublin. Some parts of the northwest may see little rain in total and some sunny breaks. Winds generally light east to northeast. Highs 15-17 C. Some hill fog and coastal low cloud, fog or mist.

TONIGHT ... Further rain as the heavier falls move gradually northeast into Meath and then east Ulster late tonight, but with further outbreaks following across south central to east central counties. A further 10-20 mms possible. Lows 8-10 C. Some fog and mist with locally poor visibility on roads.

SUNDAY ... Rain becoming more showery and ending in most places around mid-day with some afternoon brighter intervals or sunshine. About 3-5 mms of rain on average. Highs 15-18 C. It could become rather warm inland southeast by afternoon and evening. A misty or foggy night to follow with lows around 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, rather warm for most, winds SW 15-30 mph, isolated showers south and central, but cloudy with more frequent showers in the north, winds there stronger from the west by afternoon and evening (25-45 mph). Highs 16-19 C south but 14-16 C north.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy (WSW 15-30 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy, periods of rain developing (remnants of Hurricane Ophelia may be involved), lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models tend to divide into two camps around mid-week, some want to continue a rather warm "zonal" flow with high pressure trying to reassert itself across the south, others are showing a trend to cool, blustery northwest winds. Some sort of compromise, cloudy with showers, and near normal temperatures, might be the eventual outcome.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday saw highs of 30-32 C in southern Alberta and it began to warm up rapidly further east about as far east as Manitoba. The warmth covers most of the western U.S. while a strong low developing over the Great Lakes is dropping southeast and bringing a chilly almost wintry air mass south with it, replacing the warm, humid conditions over the northeast U.S. ... Ophelia has become a major hurricane and is heading just to the east of Bermuda (hopefully far enough east to spare them more than a tropical storm force northerly tonight), then on to southeast Newfoundland and into the westerlies. Remnants could be near Donegal by mid-week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Mostly cloudy, turning cooler mid-day after a morning high near 18 C, a few brief showers in a moderate westerly.

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M.T. Cranium Registered User

Sunday, 2 October, 2011

TODAY ... One more pulse of rain is heading into the southwest but this one appears rather weak and may begin to break apart into showers as it crosses the central counties later this morning. Expect 2-5 mms in some places. By afternoon and evening, there may be some brighter intervals or even hazy sunshine and it may then turn somewhat warmer again inland, with fog redeveloping near the south coast. Highs will reach about 16 C on average but could be 18-20 C in a few parts of the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Extensive mist or fog developing, lows 6-9 C (10-12 C in sheltered urban and coastal locations).

MONDAY ... Far north cloudy and showery with blustery WSW winds 25-45 mph, highs near 15 C. Central and southern regions partly cloudy, isolated showers but many places dry, highs 17-20 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, rather cool across the north, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C, somewhat milder in the south, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Moderate WSW breezes 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, breezy becoming windy (SW 25-45 mph) with showers or longer intervals of rain, from remnants of Ophelia passing north of Donegal. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, showery, turning somewhat cooler, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C. Winds veering more westerly becoming WNW 20-40 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rather cool, showers heavier in Connacht and Ulster, winds generally northwest, but some chance that a warmer, dry spell would develop around the end of next weekend and into the first part of the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Many parts of western Canada turned colder on Saturday although the warmth held on in southern Manitoba and across the north central U.S. ... quite chilly across the Great Lakes and inland northeast, some highs around 10 C, snow flurries further north near Lake Superior. Ophelia, at cat-4 intensity, fortunately tracked just far enough east of Bermuda to avoid major impacts although some very large waves and swells are rolling in there from the northwest. Winds reached about 50-60 mph in gusts.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, damp with some mist and fog, high of about 15 C on Saturday.

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