• Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles (45.71%)
  • No impact (20.61%)
  • Global warming is here to stay (14.69%)
  • Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 (18.98%)
pedigree 6 Registered User
#541

The Sun has gone spotless again today.
It looks like tomorrow could be the same.

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pedigree 6 Registered User
#542

That's 8 days so far this year that the sun has been spotless.
If we were on the old system of measuring that would be everyday so far this year.

http://spaceweather.com/

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dolanbaker Moderator
#543

Yep! still trending downwards, I wonder how long it will be before it hits the bottom of the chart and if it ever "flatlines" like it did for the first half of 2009.

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#544

I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.



Also some more interesting reading on mass gains af Antarctic ice. Quote: The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

Also some information for people who want to read has I had read a couple of weeks ago about the cracking in Antarctica was due to increase temperature well not entirely true.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/16/509565462/an-ice-shelf-is-cracking-in-antarctica-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think

So if Antarctica is gaining in ice why is the Artic loosing it. Does anyone know is there a comperhensive study on this between the two poles on the internet if so can you post a link.

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rickdangerouss Registered User
#545

hotwhiskey said:
I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.



Also some more interesting reading on mass gains af Antarctic ice. Quote: The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

Also some information for people who want to read has I had read a couple of weeks ago about the cracking in Antarctica was due to increase temperature well not entirely true.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/16/509565462/an-ice-shelf-is-cracking-in-antarctica-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think

So if Antarctica is gaining in ice why is the Artic loosing it. Does anyone know is there a comperhensive study on this between the two poles on the internet if so can you post a link.


The Video starts with a picture of the Express Newspaper...

dolanbaker Moderator
#546

rickdangerouss said:
The Video starts with a picture of the Express Newspaper...


That alone puts me off watching the video.

dolanbaker Moderator
#547

The first sunspot of cycle 25 is seen!



http://www.stce.be/node/359


An attentive sunspot observer from USET spotted on December 19 a particular interesting structure in a magnetogram. It differed from the other present structures because of its position on the solar disk and the leading black - instead of white - area. By its high latitude (23° and reverse polarity, the small magnetic dipole definitely belonged to the next sunspot cycle. If it would get strong enough to produce sunspots, it would make it the very first sunspot group of cycle 25.



I know the cycles overlap but this the minimum is still several years away.

It's that low latitude that that increases the risk of it being a false positive, otherwise cycle 25 could end up seriously overlapping 24.

On the other hand maybe having two opposing cycles together may be the cause of the low sunspot count in the first place, one cancelling out the other.

A thought that provokes far more question that I could possibly answer.

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dolanbaker Moderator
#548

hotwhiskey said:
I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.




I watched it in the end.

Definitely an alarmist video, that appears to require a few major volcanic eruptions to kickstart the process before the "mini ice age" arrives. I would be more inclined to think that additional volcanic activity indicates an unstable magnetic influence on the Earth.
Does this imply that a solar minimum results in an unstable magnetic field.


Edit:
yet another video proclaiming the coming of the next ice age, but with lots of charts.

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#549

How comet Honda has awoken the Sun with increase sunspots. Honda will pass earth around Feb 11 2017. Chance of polar storms from Jan 18.

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dolanbaker Moderator
#550

Current Weak Solar Cycle Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/31/current-weak-solar-cycle-could-reduce-global-temperatures-by-half-a-degree/
Current Weak Solar Cycle Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree
Anthony Watts / 16 hours ago March 31, 2017

From ​the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

Sun’s impact on climate change quantified for first time

A solar flare captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory – click for much larger image

For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.

There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations. One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earth’s temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches us. One of the key questions facing climate researchers is whether these fluctuations have any effect at all on the Earth’s climate. IPCC reports assume that recent solar activity is insignificant for climate change, and that the same will apply to activity in the near future.

Researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations are supplying a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years. For the first time, a significant effect is apparent. They expect the Earth’s temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.

The article is written on a "climate sceptical" site, but still worth a mention that ultimately the sun provide 100% of the energy input to the earth.
Even a weaker solar magnetic field would reduce the heating affect of the Earth's core on the surface.

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Elmer Blooker Registered User
#551

hotwhiskey said:
I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.




Interesting connection between solar activity and increased vulcanism. I'm not sure how credible it is either but a volcano in the Kamchatka Peninsula has suddenly become active after 248 years and first major eruption for about 600 years- no tremors and no warning signs!
This link is worth a look in my opinion. Make your own minds up.
http://beforeitsnews.com/environment/2017/03/russian-volcano-first-major-eruption-in-600-years-following-mini-ice-age-cycles-2573203.html
It is claimed that the very severe winter of 1739-40 was caused by volcanic activity on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

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Pa ElGrande Registered User
#552

A history of solar activity over millennia - Ilya G. Usoskin - http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/nbnfi-fe201703061963.pdf


Abstract - Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number.

continued . . .


If you want the conclusion


In general, the following main features are observed in the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity.

– Solar activity is dominated by the 11-year Schwabe cycle on an interannual timescale. Some additional longer characteristic times can be found, including the Gleissberg secular cycle, de Vries/Suess cycle, and a quasi-cycle of 2000– 2400 years (Hallstatt cycle). However, all these longer cycles are intermittent and cannot be regarded as strict phase-locked periodicities.

– One of the main features of long-term solar activity is that it contains an essential chaotic/ stochastic component, which leads to irregular variations and makes solar-activity predictions impossible for a scale exceeding one solar cycle.

– The sun spends about 70% of its time at moderate magnetic activity levels, about 15–20% of its time in a grand minimum and about 10–15% in a grand maximum.

– Grand minima are a typical but rare phenomena in solar behavior. They form a distinct mode of solar dynamo. Their occurrence appears not periodically, but rather as the result of a chaotic process within clusters separated by the 2000-2500 years (around the lows of the Hallstatt cycle). Grand minima tend to be of two distinct types: short (Maunder-like) and longer (Spörer-like).

– The recent level of solar activity (after the 1940s) was very high, corresponding to a prolonged grand maximum, but it has ceased to the normal moderate level. Grand maxima are also rare and irregularly occurring events, though the exact rate of their occurrence is still a subject of debates.

These observational features of the long-term behavior of solar activity have important implications, especially for the development of theoretical solar-dynamo models and for solar-terrestrial studies.

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