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04-07-2012, 10:06   #1
Dr.Silly
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The Open 2012 *No Betting Discussion*

Not long now folks to the best major of the year (IMO of course).

I think Tiger at 5/1 is a fantastic price, so I've backed himself

Adam Scott at 40/1
Franceso Molinari at 66/1
Frederick Jacobson at 80/1

My prediction, the way Tiger is driving and how his short game has come along, he's going to win by 7 to 10 strokes.
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04-07-2012, 10:51   #2
denishurley
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Tiger by 7-10? You really think he could smash his own record for the biggest winning margin in The Open?
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04-07-2012, 10:56   #3
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Tiger by 7-10? You really think he could smash his own record for the biggest winning margin in The Open?
I wouldn't have written it if I didn't believe it.
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04-07-2012, 10:57   #4
Martin567
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Originally Posted by Dr.Silly View Post
Not long now folks to the best major of the year (IMO of course).

I think Tiger at 5/1 is a fantastic price, so I've backed himself

Adam Scott at 40/1
Franceso Molinari at 66/1
Frederick Jacobson at 80/1

My prediction, the way Tiger is driving and how his short game has come along, he's going to win by 7 to 10 strokes.
Tiger may win but at 5/1 he is a truly awful price. Somwhere around 20/1 would be far more realistic. Lytham has over 200 bunkers so it will be a case of plotting your way around the course. Tiger wasn't a factor there in 2001 despite perfect weather. After the way he collapsed over the weekend in the US Open, he still has a long way to go to prove that he is still able to produce his best when the pressure comes on in a Major.
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04-07-2012, 10:58   #5
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Tiger is 6-1 on PaddyPower which is still too short IMO and also, they are already playing 7 places.

I am going to put an each way on Ernie @ 40-1.
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04-07-2012, 11:02   #6
Dr.Silly
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Originally Posted by Martin567 View Post
Tiger may win but at 5/1 he is a truly awful price. Somwhere around 20/1 would be far more realistic. Lytham has over 200 bunkers so it will be a case of plotting your way around the course. Tiger wasn't a factor there in 2001 despite perfect weather. After the way he collapsed over the weekend in the US Open, he still has a long way to go to prove that he is still able to produce his best when the pressure comes on in a Major.

For someone that's at a 27% win rate, and getting better week in week out ? An awful price .. I think it's great
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04-07-2012, 11:03   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr.Silly View Post
Not long now folks to the best major of the year (IMO of course).

I think Tiger at 5/1 is a fantastic price, so I've backed himself

Adam Scott at 40/1
Franceso Molinari at 66/1
Frederick Jacobson at 80/1

My prediction, the way Tiger is driving and how his short game has come along, he's going to win by 7 to 10 strokes.
You know what I have to agree with your name...Dr.Silly because this is an outrageous prediction! He's definitely worth a bet but lets be realistic, Tiger isn't the same golfer he once was! I would have backed him to win it by 7-10 in his prime but not now!

The way Harrington has been playing, he is definitely worth an e/w bet!
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04-07-2012, 11:07   #8
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For someone that's at a 27% win rate, and getting better week in week out ? An awful price .. I think it's great
We're talking Majors here. He won't be battling Van Pelt, Sabbatini or Levin coming down the stretch at Lytham if he gets himself into contention. He has won none of the last 12 Majors he's played in, that's 0%. 5/1 is a terrible price.

I seem to recall you being just as confident before the US Open. Did you put your money where your mouth was? Of course Tiger could win at Lytham but my hunch is that he won't be a factor at all.
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04-07-2012, 11:08   #9
Dr.Silly
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You know what I have to agree with your name...Dr.Silly because this is an outrageous prediction! He's definitely worth a bet but lets be realistic, Tiger isn't the same golfer he once was! I would have backed him to win it by 7-10 in his prime but not now!

The way Harrington has been playing, he is definitely worth an e/w bet!
Guess I'm silly so.
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04-07-2012, 11:19   #10
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Its creeping up on us all right. Also probably my favorite major followed closely by the masters.

I agree with you that Tiger is the most likely winner whether i would want to back him at 6/1 is an entirely different question though. Saying that i wouldnt be a layer at that price either. To be honest i would prefer to back him on after friday or saturday at 3/1 if he was trailing by 2or3 shots and if he was leading i would let him win at whatever stupid odds he would be at that stage. Good luck with your bet though.
Adam Scott im not entirely convinced he is a good links golf player but you could hardly go wrong at 40/1. Francesco at 66/1 is value and im not sure Jacobson has the bottle for a major. Just my opinions though i would love your opinions on my selections.

My own bets (slate away ) havent any done yet but these are my most likely bets.

Darren Clarke 199/1 yes i know form at the moment is rubbish and it still looks like he is hungover from last years success but he has faired well at this course in the past and frankly 199/1 is ridiculous.

Sergio Garcia 47/1 Hard to think he would ever have as good a chance to win a major as when gifting harrington that major in Carnoustie. But if there is any major sergio will win i think it is the open. I think it requires golfers to think outside the box and play out of their comfort zone. Not my most confident bet but i think he is worth a punt at the price.

Matteo Mannassero 219/1 Very intelligent and almost reminds me of Seve. He is still young but is no long shot and few would be suprised to see him win a major or 2 or 3 in his time as a pro whether this will be the one im not sure but you could do worse at the price.
Last but not least. No laughing!!

Lee Westwood 14.5/1 What can you say/not say about this guy. He just deserves a major im not sure this will be set up entirely to suit but i fully expect him to be in the hunt on sunday just on pure class alone. Tremendously nice guy and exceptional Tee to Green stats. A few quid each way almost seems like a free bet.

Good luck with your selections. All my odds are taken from current betfair prices.

Last edited by kiers47; 04-07-2012 at 11:22.
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04-07-2012, 11:22   #11
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The truth is nobody knows what tf is going to happen, nothing wrong with having people coming on sticking their necks out and sharing their punts. Have to laugh at people coming on rubbishing other peoples predictions as if they have some kind of idea what's gonna happen (or not). Tiger could win by 10, he also could miss the cut. That doesn't make whoever 'predicted' what was going to happen a Mystic Meg. A stopped clock is right twice a day.
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04-07-2012, 11:34   #12
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Darren Clarke 199/1 yes i know form at the moment is rubbish and it still looks like he is hungover from last years success but he has faired well at this course in the past and frankly 199/1 is ridiculous.

Sergio Garcia 47/1 Hard to think he would ever have as good a chance to win a major as when gifting harrington that major in Carnoustie. But if there is any major sergio will win i think it is the open. I think it requires golfers to think outside the box and play out of their comfort zone. Not my most confident bet but i think he is worth a punt at the price.

Matteo Mannassero 219/1 Very intelligent and almost reminds me of Seve. He is still young but is no long shot and few would be suprised to see him win a major or 2 or 3 in his time as a pro whether this will be the one im not sure but you could do worse at the price.
Last but not least. No laughing!!

Lee Westwood 14.5/1 What can you say/not say about this guy. He just deserves a major im not sure this will be set up entirely to suit but i fully expect him to be in the hunt on sunday just on pure class alone. Tremendously nice guy and exceptional Tee to Green stats. A few quid each way almost seems like a free bet.

Good luck with your selections. All my odds are taken from current betfair prices.

IMO, westwood doesn't have a chance. I've said this on other threads before. I don't think he has the short game or mentality to win.
Darren Clarke, if we were to go on form, not a chance, but then again .. links course, etc etc .. he could be a surprise.

Garcia, I like the look of at the moment and I think he could do well, it was himself or frederick for me, I ended up with Freddie cause of his solid putting and he seems to do well in big tournaments.

Matteo .. just to young and inexperienced for me. I can definetely see him winning very soon though.
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04-07-2012, 11:46   #13
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Of all the Majors, The Open is the most unpredictable. The player who plays the best golf does not nescessarily win (ref. Rory McIlroy 2 years ago) due to changing weather conditions. I would never back any player at 5/1 or even 10/1 to win. Considering Tiger's recent Major record, 5/1 is an appalling price.
I haven't really studied it yet but, off the top of my head, McIlroy and Harrington are the 2 names that immediately spring to mind.
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04-07-2012, 11:58   #14
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Like most of the papers will write up I think Harrington has a great chance but the odds are too low. For a player ranked 60th in the world he should not be 3rd fav
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04-07-2012, 11:59   #15
Mr. Larson
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The bookies would be fairly stupid to base their odds on the World Rankings though, wouldn't they? They are a clever bunch.
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