|SATURDAY NIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times overnight and Sunday morning, especially Galway to Dublin and parts of inland southeast, potential for 20-40 mm totals including the day's earlier rain ... not as wet in east Ulster but some rain at times there. Lows near 10-12 C and highs about 14-16 C for the north and east, to 17-20 C south and southwest where skies could try to clear later afternoon.|
Issued at 01 June 2012 - 10:55
Between 25 and 65 mm of rain possible, (heaviest totals likely south midlands). The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by evening time. Rain slowly clearing southwards later Sunday.
Valid 1200 Sat 2/6/12 to 2100 Sun 3/6/12.
This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.
Image from yr.no
Just to explain the chart a little, the warm, humid air mass that is over us now will be attacked from cooler polar air masses both to our north and southwest, helping to squeeze the life of out this humid air over Ireland. It is this 'squeezing' that will help to intensify the weak frontal zones that are currently hovering benignly over and close to the country at the moment.
There is a high level of uncertainty as to actual track and intensity of the main rain band though, but it seems the southern half of the country is most at risk of seeing some prolonged spells of rain from Saturday evening through to Sunday afternoon which could be heavy at times.
This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.