[Deep Easterly]

MT's forecast today for Saturday night/Sunday morning:

SATURDAY NIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times overnight and Sunday morning, especially Galway to Dublin and parts of inland southeast, potential for 20-40 mm totals including the day's earlier rain ... not as wet in east Ulster but some rain at times there. Lows near 10-12 C and highs about 14-16 C for the north and east, to 17-20 C south and southwest where skies could try to clear later afternoon.

Met.ie Warning:

Weather Warning

Issued at 01 June 2012 - 10:55
Rainfall warning.
Between 25 and 65 mm of rain possible, (heaviest totals likely south midlands). The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by evening time. Rain slowly clearing southwards later Sunday.

Valid 1200 Sat 2/6/12 to 2100 Sun 3/6/12.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

I think this is a very hard one to call given the relatively unusual synoptics that are forecast for this weekend but might be something to watch just for the sake of interest if nothing else.

This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.


Image from yr.no

Just to explain the chart a little, the warm, humid air mass that is over us now will be attacked from cooler polar air masses both to our north and southwest, helping to squeeze the life of out this humid air over Ireland. It is this 'squeezing' that will help to intensify the weak frontal zones that are currently hovering benignly over and close to the country at the moment.

There is a high level of uncertainty as to actual track and intensity of the main rain band though, but it seems the southern half of the country is most at risk of seeing some prolonged spells of rain from Saturday evening through to Sunday afternoon which could be heavy at times.

This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.

[leahyl]

Originally Posted by Deep Easterly

I think this is a very hard one to call given the relatively unusual synoptics that are forecast for this weekend but might be something to watch just for the sake of interest if nothing else.

This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.



This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.

Might this rain not be as bad so as ME are making out Deep Easterly?

[Sponge Bob]

Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched with floods in Clonmel or thereabouts and while I scalded meself alive all weekend on Clew Bay under constant clear blue skies it rained for 2 days solid in Galway City.

Once these Biscay 'pulses' set up they can be torrential, maybe they will only get as far as Wexford though.

I'd say Clew Bay is the place to be this weekend too.

[darkman2]

Agree with the OP. Pretty much spot on. Nothing spectacular but something to keep an eye on just in case.

[Deep Easterly]

Originally Posted by leahyl

Might this rain not be as bad so as ME are making out Deep Easterly?

It may well not be, or it might even be worse! It really is a hard one to be anyway specific about due to complexity of the whole wider set up and they as well as MTC are right in warning people about this potential. The latest NAE and HIRLAM forecast charts are showing some fairly substantial rainfall totals falling over a 24 hour period over parts of Munster & Leinster in particular so the risk is there. Just a matter now of seeing whether it will materialize or not. and if not, we can always Blame it on the Weather Man!

PS, just noticed I have the wrong time stamp on the chart in original post. The model run is from the 00z 1st (ie. today!) not the 2nd as I idiotically put on the map.

[zerks]

Originally Posted by Sponge Bob

Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched

Once these Biscay 'pulses' set up they can be torrential, maybe they will only get as far as Wexford though.

I'd say Clew Bay is the place to be this weekend too.

It can feck off 'til Monday or Tuesday. I want the South East to live up to it's name: Sunny!

[Redsunset]

WarningsWeather WarningIssued at 01 June 2012 - 22:00

Rain Warning Update

Between 25mm & 65mm of rain over Connacht, Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime to affect much of Leinster, Connacht and the rest of Munster. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and early Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

[dfbemt]

Based on Deep Easterly's OP I have put my fertiliser down on the grass. Needs to get a good soaking within 48 hours or I'll be looking at dust for the Summer.

Will be happy with sun until tomorrow evening but I really need it to rain before I get up on Sunday morning.

Sorry sun worshippers

[Graces7]

Originally Posted by dfbemt

Based on Deep Easterly's OP I have put my fertiliser down on the grass. Needs to get a good soaking within 48 hours or I'll be looking at dust for the Summer.

Will be happy with sun until tomorrow evening but I really need it to rain before I get up on Sunday morning.

Sorry sun worshippers

That scenario is fine by me... Trading at Bandon Market tomorrow morning and my gazebo turned turtle in the high winds so I have no cover.. NB did not water the garden on the strength of a good soaking on the way.

[cml387]

Originally Posted by Sponge Bob

Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched with floods in Clonmel or thereabouts and while I scalded meself alive all weekend on Clew Bay under constant clear blue skies it rained for 2 days solid in Galway City.

.

I remember it well (I've mentioned it here previously).
Torrential rain didn't stop for two days.

[Su Campu]

Originally Posted by redsunset

WarningsWeather WarningIssued at 01 June 2012 - 22:00

Rain Warning Update

Between 25mm & 65mm of rain over Connacht, Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime to affect much of Leinster, Connacht and the rest of Munster. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and early Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon.

Thanks for posting that redsunset, because some on here will try to claim that forecast never existed if it does turn out to be accurate!

It is an interesting setup alright, with a jet streak to our north providing maximum QG forcing some time tomorrow afternoon / evening. The GFS chart for 18Z tomorrow below shows PW around 30-35 mm, and enhanced lift through the south and midlands, which should give really awful conditions through Munster and the midlands tomorrow afternoon and evening. Local topography should cause wide variations in rainfall amounts, with upwind (E-facing) slopes receiving the most tomorrow evening and night, and extensive low cloud and hill fog.

[Redsunset]

Umm latest HIrlam shows a good deluge of accumulated rainfall in line with Met Eireann's warning .
I've edited thread title to highlight the threat of flooding.

[Rickylovesuall]

will there be strong wind with it or just rain ? hopefully just rain - dont want that coming in horizontal like

[BarryM]

Update in the extreme SW, on Sherkin Island. Very light rain (<1mm) this last hour, wind E at 3bf, temp 14.9. ME's rainfall radar is showing we're in the yellow... I agree with the prognosis even though it hasn't been too warm except for a short period yesterday.

The local ME station is showing 0.2mm rain at 08.00.

Not very meteorological but reports locally are the sea temp has risen a lot in the last week and the ferry engine cooler intake got blocked with jelly fish yesterday!!

[SeaFields]

Constant lightish rain in south kerry at the mo with the odd heavy burst

Between this and the muggy, still air being a mecca for midges, my bank holiday BBQ may have to be cancelled this evening