Hey all. Really looking forward to this event and hopefully I have a few decent tips in store:
-> Jones win via KO - 1/1 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> 10 pts.
Jonny "Bones" Jones is coming in to defend his LHW title on a 6 win-streak against his former training partner "Sugar" Rashad Evans. The market is rightly sided with the champion with a meagre 1/5 for a win compared to 2/1 for Evans. Evans is coming off quite a lack luster and relatively disappointing performance against Phil Davis at UFC on Fox 2.
Jones: 15W-1L (WWWWW): 53% via KO/TKO, 33% via submission and 13% via decision.
Evans: 17W-1L (WWWWL): 35% via KO/TKO, 12% via submission and 53% via decision.
Jones will be looking to finish this fight early using his impressive reach (the longest in the UFC) and accurate striking taking care to avoid leaving it in the hands of the judges, where Evans tends to outpoint opponents more often than not.
-> Brendan Schaub win via KO - 1/1 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 6.5/10.
-> 5 pts.
Brendan Schaub, a TUF10 finalist is returning from a first round KO loss to Big Nog at UFC 134, against Ben Rothwell on Saturday. Bookies are offering 2/1 for a Rothwell win and 1/3 for Schaub to emerge victorious. Rothwell's recent record has been off-and on, but I can't see anything other than a Schaub winning how he wins best, KO with punches
especially considering exactly half of Rothwell's losses have been via KO.
Schaub: 8W-2L (LWWWW): 88% via KO/TKO, 12% via decision.
Rothwell: 31W-8L (LWLWL): 55% via KO/TKO, 35% via submission and 10% via decision.
-> Alessio vs. Bocek: Will the fight go the distance, no - 10/11 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 5/10.
-> 5 pts.
Stats suggest this fight won't go the distance. 80% of Bocek's fights finished before the judge's decision was needed, with 79% of Alessio's ending in the same way (and only 29% and 50% of their losses coming from decisions, respectively). Bocek loves his rear naked choke submission so a win via submission at 13/8 might be worth looking into also.
Fun accumulator (~ 23/10):
Hominick win (1/7), Bocek win (2/7), Schaub vs. Rothwell fight will not go the distance (4/9), McDonald win (1/6) and Jones win via KO or Sub (1/3).
In-play: 20 points.
Bank: 80 points.
Best of luck to anyone following