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17-06-2011, 10:34   #1
jon burrows
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Winter 2011/2012

A bit early for this but hey.... . Did anyone here that this winter coming is supposed to be another arctic freeze? Could even be worse than 2010/2011 winter. I heard the presenter from RTE 2fm reading it off a newspaper this morning.

What are your thoughts or did you hear or read this also?
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17-06-2011, 12:07   #2
HellFireClub
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http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/c...rs-509342.html

Yipee!
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17-06-2011, 17:32   #3
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50 years of heaven
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17-06-2011, 18:12   #4
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Like this summer was meant to be a heat wave
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17-06-2011, 19:15   #5
traecy1
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Like this summer was meant to be a heat wave
Who said this summer was meant to be a heat wave
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17-06-2011, 22:24   #6
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There must be some sort of reason for the past two winter's if it was down to chance then it's amazing we got those two winters right after each other.
On the other hand we hear that every year is getting warmer, wasn't last year the warmest on record globally?
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17-06-2011, 22:30   #7
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On a separate note , I am watching a TV series called Game Of Thrones, It is based in Medieval times and they talk about Long winters and Long summers, (Winters lasting 10 years) etc.
Is this all fiction or was there ever a period where there was really long distances between seasons?
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17-06-2011, 22:55   #8
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this summer is so crap , im lookin forward to winter already !!!!!
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17-06-2011, 22:58   #9
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lord help you if you think what we got last year was "arctic"
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18-06-2011, 00:17   #10
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18-06-2011, 00:38   #11
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Given we have only started our summer (or lack of) here in Ireland, it might seem a bit premature to be speculating about winter 2011/2012.

But here is my tuppence!

I am of the view that we are in for another harsh winter with periods of heavy snow and sub zero temperatures - is it just me, but when I hear of -6oC in Ireland now I am no longer impressed (following the -15oC's and -18oC's of last year)

This winter has a lot to live up to following last year and indeed the previous year. However I think that the finding this week by three separate groups of scientists confirming that sunspot activity is not picking up (or stopping for a period of time) must be taken seriously.

The lack of / reduced sun spot activity is leading to "blocking highs" in winter that put a stop to the never ending low pressure systems that usually line up to pass across Ireland and Britain in the winter. This allows the northern arctic/polar winds and the eastern siberian winds flood across the two islands, dragging temperatures down substantially.

My wife will hate me for saying this but I think Ireland is in for another snowy and freezing winter and this one might be even more severe than last winter

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18-06-2011, 01:26   #12
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I compared the previous springs sea temps in October last year after finding the below text on research carried out on predicting the following winter's NAO and to myself i said well i'll let the horse run.Did it prove successful or was it just luck? Anyway once again im showing last year's and this years spring sea temps to see if indeed there is some fact to this,although i have my doubts.

Warmer water around Greenland=Blocking High??????
Cool trench in mid atlantic due to southerly tracking Jet stream of previous storm activity.Will it follow suit?
I notice it not as defined this time round.



Several years ago scientists made a breakthrough when they confirmed through the use of computer models that part of this climatic memory driving the NAO lies in the deeper ocean temperatures of the Atlantic and changes in these temperatures are largely responsible for variations in the NAO. Mark Rodwell, a climate researcher at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, was one of the researchers who made the connection. Based on this earlier work, he is now using similar models to make forecasts on the sign of NAO nearly one year in advance.


“Though this is largely a statistical relationship, there is a reason behind our forecasts. The idea is that if you want to make a forecast for the winter, then you need to look at sea surface temperatures of the winter before that,” says Rodwell.

The NAO is responsible for the path of strong storms that pass across the Atlantic, and these strong storms influence the temperatures of the ocean. By the spring of each year, the NAO has left a deep mark on the temperatures of the Atlantic.

During the summer, these ocean temperatures are largely preserved because a relatively thin layer of water heated by the sun covers the ocean beneath like a thermal blanket.

When the following winter rolls around, the warm layer is removed, revealing the sea temperatures from the previous spring, which in turn affect air pressure over the Atlantic and the next NAO.



Now a little look at sea temps for the spring 2010









SPRING 2011




Also as regards to helping any northern blocking taking hold,i see the QBO could be east again come winter but only starting to take hold so perhaps a very cold late Jan and early Feb is in store if a Startospheric Warming decides to show its head.
Here's a link showing it.
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURC...smoothing=auto

Anyway i shall discuss that end of it come november as thats when things could get exciting or( boring )

Anyway not going to get into the whole low solar bit on here but the jet stream does seem to go south more often due to more blocking when in solar minimums.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/fulltext
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18-06-2011, 07:46   #13
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18-06-2011, 15:38   #14
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... but when I hear of -6oC in Ireland now ...
Who's talkin -60C ??
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18-06-2011, 15:45   #15
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Who's talkin -60C ??
-6oC = minus 6 degrees Celcius.
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