I compared the previous springs sea temps in October last year after finding the below text on research carried out on predicting the following winter's NAO and to myself i said well i'll let the horse run.Did it prove successful or was it just luck? Anyway once again im showing last year's and this years spring sea temps to see if indeed there is some fact to this,although i have my doubts.
Warmer water around Greenland=Blocking High??????
Cool trench in mid atlantic due to southerly tracking Jet stream of previous storm activity.Will it follow suit?
I notice it not as defined this time round.
Several years ago scientists made a breakthrough when they confirmed through the use of computer models that part of this climatic memory driving the NAO lies in the deeper ocean temperatures of the Atlantic and changes in these temperatures are largely responsible for variations in the NAO. Mark Rodwell, a climate researcher at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, was one of the researchers who made the connection. Based on this earlier work, he is now using similar models to make forecasts on the sign of NAO nearly one year in advance.
“Though this is largely a statistical relationship, there is a reason behind our forecasts. The idea is that if you want to make a forecast for the winter, then you need to look at sea surface temperatures of the winter before that,” says Rodwell.
The NAO is responsible for the path of strong storms that pass across the Atlantic, and these strong storms influence the temperatures of the ocean. By the spring of each year, the NAO has left a deep mark on the temperatures of the Atlantic.
During the summer, these ocean temperatures are largely preserved because a relatively thin layer of water heated by the sun covers the ocean beneath like a thermal blanket.
When the following winter rolls around, the warm layer is removed, revealing the sea temperatures from the previous spring, which in turn affect air pressure over the Atlantic and the next NAO.
Now a little look at sea temps for the spring 2010
Also as regards to helping any northern blocking taking hold,i see the QBO could be east again come winter but only starting to take hold so perhaps a very cold late Jan and early Feb is in store if a Startospheric Warming decides to show its head.
Here's a link showing it.
Anyway i shall discuss that end of it come november as thats when things could get exciting or( boring )
Anyway not going to get into the whole low solar bit on here but the jet stream does seem to go south more often due to more blocking when in solar minimums.