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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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Comments

  • #812
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    On Monday, there is a high risk of stormy weather developing. Current indications suggest that Ex Hurricane Ophelia will track northwards close to the west coast of Ireland, with the threat of storm force winds, heavy rain and very high seas during Monday and Monday night. Winds will be strongest on south and west coasts with severe gusts possible. Rain will be heaviest in the south and west with localised flooding possible, especially along the south coast. The storm will move away to the north overnight.
    Met Eireann forecast


  • #813
    Kilkenny36
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭Kilkenny36


    Living close to Waterford City. How bad is it likely to be? Again thanks everybody for the great information.


  • #814
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Kilkenny36 wrote: »
    Living close to Waterford City. How bad is it likely to be? Again thanks everybody for the great information.

    Within 5 to 10 km’s of the coast,in rural exposed parts there pretty bad
    Prepare for power cuts and if it doesn’t pan out as bad count yourself lucky


  • #815
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    00Z ECMWF winds for 100 metres , not the standard 10 metres. Pink shows Force 9-11, gold Force 12.

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101400_060.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101400_066.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101400_072.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101400_078.jpg


  • #816
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,797 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    George Sunsnow wrote:
    Within 5 to 10 km’s of the coast,in rural exposed parts there pretty bad Prepare for power cuts and if it doesn’t pan out as bad count yourself lucky


    I'm preparing to go watch the big waves


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  • #817
    mel.b
    Registered Users Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭mel.b


    Discodog wrote: »
    Plus our buildings are low & block construction. The real damage will be from trees & blowing debris. People should try to park their car in a sheltered spot & make sure that there is nothing to blow around like wheelie bins.


    Arghh, this just me realise that our bins are collected on Monday and they are always done later in the day :(


  • #818
    Kilkenny36
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭Kilkenny36


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Within 5 to 10 km’s of the coast,in rural exposed parts there pretty bad
    Prepare for power cuts and if it doesn’t pan out as bad count yourself lucky

    Thanks for your reply. I'm about 20km from the coast so im guessing it wont be too bad.


  • #819
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    090416_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    The track is bad for Ireland, keep up to date with Met Eireann and official advice locally.

    090416.png


  • #820
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    00Z ECMWF winds for 100 metres , not the standard 10 metres. Pink shows Force 9-11, gold Force 12.

    It looks like the storm dissipates a bit over Ireland. However those images are 6 hours apart and it shows force 12 off the coast in the first one. Are we missing an image where force 12 hits the country or will that not happen?


  • #821
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users Posts: 28,791 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I'm preparing to go watch the big waves

    I hate to state the bleedin' obvious - but from a safe distance I hope.

    Please don't endanger other lives by putting yourself in risky places to see a few waves.

    (and apologies if my irony-meter needs adjusting)


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  • #822
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Chart showing Hurricane Debby approaching the SW of Ireland back in September 1961:


    snipk.png

    New Moon



  • #823
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Chart showing Hurricane Debby approaching the SW of Ireland back in September 1961:


    snipk.png
    Good find! Where did you get that chart from? Presumably a reanalysis with ECMWF-like stylings and colours.


  • #824
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    We are getting conflicting reports on how bad this storm would be. The worst case model suggests Cat 1 hurricane conditions. Other models suggest barely sustained gale force winds with gusts barely into storm force in the Limerick City area. We're anticipating a storm on Monday. We don't know how bad it going to be. Just to say some areas may receive substantial damages and power outages while nearby could be relatively unscathed. There will be probably less cows than usual getting milked on Monday evening.


  • #825
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    How common are hurricanes that form in the East Atlantic and track directly towards us?

    I know we have had the tail ends of gulf hurricanes before and I've seen east atlantic hurricanes head westwards but I cant recall the present scenario before?


  • #826
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    Stunning image
    vis0.gif


  • #827
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    star gazer wrote: »
    The track is bad for Ireland, keep up to date with Met Eireann and official advice locally.

    090416.png

    Again, this chart probability refers to 1-minute GALE Force (34 knots) and higher, not only Beaufort STORM Force 10. This is the problem with the NHC'S classification. For them a tropical "storm" is anything with winds above 34 knots (1-minute mean), which is just a gale for us.


  • #828
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    server down wrote: »
    It looks like the storm dissipates a bit over Ireland. However those images are 6 hours apart and it shows force 12 off the coast in the first one. Are we missing an image where force 12 hits the country or will that not happen?

    Remember, that's at 100 metres. To translate that down to 10 metres we'd need to take off anything from 5-10%, depending on terrain.


  • #829
    Video
    Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭Video


    what do we need to do to prepare for this and be safe? what kind of damage can this wind do, to be honest im quaking in my boots as we live in an old house.


  • #830
    power pants
    Registered Users Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭power pants


    I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!


  • #831
    jasper100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 455 ✭✭jasper100


    Video wrote: »
    what do we need to do to prepare for this and be safe? what kind of damage can this wind do, to be honest im quaking in my boots as we live in an old house.


    this won't be any worse than usual winter storms in Ireland.


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  • #832
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Remember, that's at 100 metres. To translate that down to 10 metres we'd need to take off anything from 5-10%, depending on terrain.

    Say you live at 200m, does this mean that those wind speeds apply to you, if not even higher speeds?


  • #833
    coillsaille
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    power pants wrote: »
    I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

    I was wondering when you'd appear..


  • #834
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Kilkenny36 wrote: »
    Thanks for your reply. I'm about 20km from the coast so im guessing it wont be too bad.

    I would not say that exactly
    Do not under or overestimate what this storm might do
    If it’s path varies it can make a huge difference in areas affected!


  • #835
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    power pants wrote: »
    I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

    I do hope you leave your patio furniture out. Seeing it come thru the windows will entertain your kids no end.


  • #836
    whippet
    Registered Users Posts: 7,668 ✭✭✭whippet


    I’m on the Louth coast and lost the trampoline last year so thankfully one less thing to worry about.

    My only problem could be trees down and high tide more or less making me an island for a day or so


  • #837
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Here's Met Éireann's ECMWF chart for Monday, showing "only" force 9-10 in the south.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

    430555.PNG


  • #838
    peasant
    Registered Users Posts: 17,819 ✭✭✭✭peasant


    Video wrote: »
    what do we need to do to prepare for this and be safe? what kind of damage can this wind do, to be honest im quaking in my boots as we live in an old house.

    Put everything away outside that could go flying, secure things that are loose, check nearby trees for branches that could potentially impact your house and cut them, if possible.

    Once the storm comes, keep all windows and doors closed...support wonky ones with braces if necessary.

    Remember, even though the storm itself is moving south to north, the winds around it are circular, so at some time during its passage the gusts could come from any and all directions i.e. there will be no side of the house that will be more sheltered than others. (no point just moving the garden chairs from front to back)


  • #839
    __..__
    Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭__..__


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    I do hope you leave your patio furniture out. Seeing it come thru the windows will entertain your kids no end.

    Trampoline is too big to dismantle.
    Im going to leave it out for the craic. Test to see how good i set it up.
    If its gone at least it will give me some more space in the garden.


  • #840
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,339 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


    ^^ if we could sticky that sentence to top of every page, it would preemptively answer a lot of questions :)


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  • #841
    flaneur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 960 ✭✭✭flaneur


    I’m confused. Do I just ignore the non met Éireann reports that seem to be indicating a very serious storm?

    I was considering cancellation of an event on Monday.


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