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Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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    #152
    h7nlrp2v0g5u48
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭h7nlrp2v0g5u48


    esposito wrote: »
    He might. But will they come true
    MT doesn't always get it right but then again who does. I think his forecasts are more accurate than many out there who like to build our hopes up but don't really have any real evidence to back their forecasts up. Also MT is never afraid to admit when he gets things wrong regarding his forecasts.


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    #153
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    natashaob6 wrote: »
    John mac wrote: »
    only seeing one pic though , the other 3 are only showing 1 pixel ..


    I can't see anything either when I click on each one.
    If your talking about my photos they are showing up ok here at work on a different laptop.


  • Options
    #154
    h7nlrp2v0g5u48
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭h7nlrp2v0g5u48


    snaps wrote: »
    If your talking about my photos they are showing up ok here at work on a different laptop.

    Just had another go still no luck. Thanks for posting anyway.


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    #155
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I had a strange dream last night involving Gerry Murphy up on the bonnet of his car trying to scrape the snow off his windscreen
    He was doing a broadcast from home and mentioned 40cm of snow in the east showing a line in the map from Dundalk to Rosslare

    Make of that what you will :D


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    #156
    NickNickleby
    Registered Users Posts: 1,813 ✭✭✭NickNickleby


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    I had a strange dream last night involving Gerry Murphy up on the bonnet of his car trying to scrape the snow off his windscreen
    He was doing a broadcast from home and mentioned 40cm of snow in the east showing a line in the map from Dundalk to Rosslare

    Make of that what you will :D

    THat's good enough for me!!!


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    #157
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,506 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    I had a strange dream last night involving Gerry Murphy up on the bonnet of his car trying to scrape the snow off his windscreen
    He was doing a broadcast from home and mentioned 40cm of snow in the east showing a line in the map from Dundalk to Rosslare

    Make of that what you will :D



    Had a dream about 20yrs ago about getting loads of cold and snow in early dec. Waited yr after yr hoping that it might happen. Then along came dec 2010 lol.


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    #158
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    I had a strange dream last night involving Gerry Murphy up on the bonnet of his car trying to scrape the snow off his windscreen
    He was doing a broadcast from home and mentioned 40cm of snow in the east showing a line in the map from Dundalk to Rosslare

    Make of that what you will :D

    Forget a nationwide red warning, it would be Lilac or Mauve! ;-)


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    #159
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    When is MT going to Issue his Winter Forecast?

    :):)


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    #160
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Captain Snow wrote: »
    When is MT going to Issue his Winter Forecast?

    :):)

    He said mid November


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    #161
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The AO is expected to go very positive for a period at the start of November but there seems to be a drop off towards the middle of the month. A very positive AO is not a good sign for cold conditions, but as proven by 1990/91, just because you have a strong Polar Vortex, does not mean you can't get cold. Look at the classic example of such below from 2 February 1991 (look at the deep low to the southwest of Greenland).

    CmTNpOC.gif

    6rD8Dv3.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #162
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,139 ✭✭✭highdef


    I may not be reading your 1991 chart very well but it doesn't look all that wintry to me over Ireland. We seem to have fairly high pressure and I see we are appear to be in a col with very slack winds and fairly non descript weather.... Not very mild but not very cold. Probably nice and bright in the day and feeling quite nice for February but with fairly chilly and maybe foggy nights.


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    #163
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    highdef wrote: »
    I may be reading your 1991 chart very well but it doesn't look all that wintry to me over Ireland. We seem to be in a col with very slack winds and fairly non descript weather.... Not very mild but not very cold. Probably nice and bright in the day and feeling quite nice for February but with fairly chilly and maybe foggy nights.

    It's what came 5 days later or so :)


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    #164
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,139 ✭✭✭highdef


    nagdefy wrote: »
    It's what came 5 days later or so :)
    Ah well perhaps if that was mentioned, it would have helped. No point in showing us charts of nice settled weather but have nothing else to show the point in question.


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    #165
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    highdef wrote: »
    Ah well perhaps if that was mentioned, it would have helped. No point in showing us charts of nice settled weather but have nothing else to show the point in question.

    I know Highdef. The chart itself seems pretty benign. From around the 5th 6th to the 10th was a lovely beasterly easterly spell of weather. The UK, as usual in these scenarios had a longer deeper cold spell. Still would not complain if we got something like it this winter.

    I have a gut feeling we're due some decent wintry weather. Since December 2010 we haven't had much in the way of nationwide wintry weather, bar maybe March 2013 which was a little late in the season.


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    #166
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    highdef wrote: »
    Ah well perhaps if that was mentioned, it would have helped. No point in showing us charts of nice settled weather but have nothing else to show the point in question.

    Thought people knew about the February 1991 cold snap lol (which is widely popular/infamous, especially among cold lovers and southeastern England residents).

    Here's what Wikipedia says about February 1991:
    The second snow event of the winter occurred in early February 1991 and brought the coldest weather since January 1987. Unlike the previous storm it hit much of Europe, freezing rivers and lakes, and even the canals of Venice which froze over for the first time since 1985. In France the French Riviera experienced its heaviest snowfall for five years leading to traffic chaos - many drivers were stranded on the coastal road between Nice and Antibes, while elsewhere two people were killed after becoming exposed to the cold weather, and horse racing at the Mediterranean resort of Cagnes-sur-Mer was cancelled due to snowfall. The southern Soviet Union which usually experienced fairly mild winters saw temperatures fall to -10C, while Spitsbergen in Norway enjoyed unseasonably mild weather.

    In the United Kingdom the snow was brought in by a cold easterly wind. At first it was mostly concentrated in the eastern counties of England, although it quickly spread inland. By the evening of 6 February many parts of England and Wales were experiencing snow showers, and by the following morning many areas woke to a covering of powdery snow. Along with this came a severe frost coupled with sub-zero temperatures, and heavy snowfalls which continued to fall throughout the day. Temperatures were as low as −11.7 °C (10.9 °F) and did not exceed −5 °C (23 °F) in many areas. Snow depths were in excess of 10 centimetres (3.9 in) across England and drifted in the easterly wind. On higher ground levels reached 30 centimetres (12 in). Villages on Exmoor were cut off by drifts approaching 2 metres (6 ft 7 in).

    Once again the snow brought travel chaos to much of the country, particularly to the railways, with British Rail making its now infamous excuse that severe delays to services were being caused by the wrong type of snow. Heathrow Airport was forced to cancel flights, while Birmingham and Gatwick were closed. Cars were abandoned as roads and motorways became impassable, and canals, ponds and even part of the Bristol Channel froze over.

    By 8 February conditions had deteriorated further, with depths of snow approaching 20 centimetres (7.9 in) in many areas. London recorded 20 centimetres (7.9 in), with parts of Yorkshire recording 51 centimetres (20 in).[13] Bingley in West Yorkshire had 47 centimetres (19 in) and Pencelli in Powys 35 centimetres (14 in). After temperatures dropped to −10 °C (14 °F) on the night of 8–9 February, conditions eased slightly the following day and continued to do so on 10 February. However, night-time temperatures remained low, and there was a fresh snowfall on 12 February. After this high pressure began to move across the UK and despite further night time frosts a slow thaw began. On 20 February an Atlantic system finally arrived bringing mild south westerly winds and rain which escalated the thaw and allowed temperatures to return to double figures.

    And a classic forecast from Ian McCaskill on February 6th 1991:


    nagdefy wrote: »
    I know Highdef. The chart itself seems pretty benign. From around the 5th 6th to the 10th was a lovely beasterly easterly spell of weather. The UK, as usual in these scenarios had a longer deeper cold spell. Still would not complain if we got something like it this winter.

    I have a gut feeling we're due some decent wintry weather. Since December 2010 we haven't had much in the way of nationwide wintry weather, bar maybe March 2013 which was a little late in the season.

    Yeah, I posted that chart specifically because it was the one where the polar vortex was shown as its strongest for the period.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #167
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Yeah there was a good 8 inches of snow in Arklow in the February 1991,some epic streamers
    There’s a video on YouTube of it but I couldn’t find it

    I did find this one of Arklow’s Main Street Christmas week 2010
    Bit of traffic chaos :D
    The place looks like a sky resort :)

    Hard to believe it all happened isn’t it

    https://youtu.be/HV00JG3MxLI


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    #168
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Yeah there was a good 8 inches of snow in Arklow in the February 1991,some epic streamers
    There’s a video on YouTube of it but I couldn’t find it

    I did find this one of Arklow’s Main Street Christmas week 2010
    Bit of traffic chaos :D
    The place looks like a sky resort :)

    Hard to believe it all happened isn’t it

    https://youtu.be/HV00JG3MxLI

    I'm getting goosebumps from watching that, thanks for sharing!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #169
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    1991 was one of my favourite snow events of all time, we had an entire week off school, I think it was a Tuesday when it started snowing, I remember it raining that morning with bits of sleet mixed in, then went to School and the rain cleared, about an hour of dryness, then the snow suddenly started before lunchtime and was very heavy, didn't stop snowing till later that evening and almost a foot of snow fell. We had lots of heavy intense snow showers for days and nights afterwards. At the time I made sure to check all snow forecasts on BBC Breakfast with Francis Wilson and on BBC in the evening. Once this spell came to an end, very little happened again till 2010, apart from a short outbreak during Winter 2000 I think it was.


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    #170
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    That video is amazing!!!! The christmas music in the background complements it perfectly :D


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    #171
    beefburrito
    Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭beefburrito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    1991 was one of my favourite snow events of all time, we had an entire week off school, I think it was a Tuesday when it started snowing, I remember it raining that morning with bits of sleet mixed in, then went to School and the rain cleared, about an hour of dryness, then the snow suddenly started before lunchtime and was very heavy, didn't stop snowing till later that evening and almost a foot of snow fell. We had lots of heavy intense snow showers for days and nights afterwards. At the time I made sure to check all snow forecasts on BBC Breakfast with Francis Wilson and on BBC in the evening. Once this spell came to an end, very little happened again till 2010, apart from a short outbreak during Winter 2000 I think it was.

    I remember it well too,was working in Quinnsworth as a teenager and was outside collecting shopping trollies.

    There was no snowflake working conditions back then... excuse the pun ðŸ˜


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    #172
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    1991 was one of my favourite snow events of all time, we had an entire week off school, I think it was a Tuesday when it started snowing, I remember it raining that morning with bits of sleet mixed in, then went to School and the rain cleared, about an hour of dryness, then the snow suddenly started before lunchtime and was very heavy, didn't stop snowing till later that evening and almost a foot of snow fell. We had lots of heavy intense snow showers for days and nights afterwards. At the time I made sure to check all snow forecasts on BBC Breakfast with Francis Wilson and on BBC in the evening. Once this spell came to an end, very little happened again till 2010, apart from a short outbreak during Winter 2000 I think it was.

    I posted about Winter 2000/01 here in-depth: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=105146697#post105146697

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #173
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    What analogue is this out of curiosity? What's it based off?

    The closest the models have been hinting at something cold for Winter 2017/18 has been December 2017, especially the CFSv2 though even with that, nothing spectacular.

    The only thing I take from Autumn for Winter forecasting personally is the OPI, or pattern setup in October though even that I take with a pinch of salt as much as everything else. If my estimates are right, the OPI for this October should be on the positive side of neutral so far though very close to bang on neutral. This is normally a bad sign for Winter but since 2013, there's been three fails of the OPI in helping predict the Winter, 2013, 2014 and 2016 which all had negative OPIs with 2014 being the second most negative since 1970 with only 2009 being more negative.

    You're literally going for the opposite of what 2016/17 was expected to be - the early part of the Winter cold and the latter half mild when in the end, both halves were mild.

    Yep, my final estimation of the OPI for 2017 is that it was on the positive side of neutral. A big anticyclone over the continent but with northern blocking over the Arctic also.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #174
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The NAO is trending downwards with the current GFS ensembles as we head towards mid-November :eek:, with two outliers going into very negative NAO levels. See back through the thread if you're unsure of what the NAO is and how it works.

    These are some exciting times!

    Bm5iTRv.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #175
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well there can be no more procrastinating, here's what I think may happen this winter:

    The following was posted by me on Net-weather and applies to Britain. At the end of this discussion, I indicate what if any differences I would expect in Ireland:
    (my post to Net-weather, re: Britain long range forecast)

    In general, I would look for a fairly cold winter to develop, almost all global drivers seem to be at least 50-50 in suggesting a mixture of rather cold zonal patterns and at least weak blocking episodes over the North Atlantic and European sectors.

    While I'm not optimistic about this being an exceptional winter, it could produce one spell of severe winter weather conditions, so I'm expecting it to finish perhaps colder than 3/4 of the past fifty winters or near the average of the past 360 as provided by the CET record. Perhaps the best way to describe the expected outcome is a typical 18th or 19th century winter, with at least one month well below normal in temperature.

    There are more signs of this being January than either December or February but the most severe portion of the winter could come fairly late into January and edge into early February.

    At the same time I think the set-up will produce some stormy episodes and not overly mild storms either, coming at the UK from a westerly or slightly northwesterly direction in some cases. The period from about mid-December to mid-January is favoured for this stormier period.

    I could go into detail about why I think this may happen but I think it has been fairly widely discussed already that solar and PDO factors are generally in favour of colder outcomes downstream from both large oceans. The pattern expected in North America is for very cold weather to set up over western regions with oscillating extensions of this cold towards the northeast U.S., in other words, an up and down temperature trend for the western Atlantic. There are signs of at least mild blocking over Greenland and a trend to lower if not below normal heights over western Europe.

    So I think the signs are more favourable than in many recent winters (other than 2009-10 or 2010-11) and finally the research model that I use (independent of most of the above reasoning) also shows a tendency to a colder turn in January in analogue years.

    Since the period after southern declination maximum and leading towards northern maximum is favoured for blocking and cold this further implicates late January with the northern max timing for the month around 2nd and 29th. The period of 2-4 January would be my best bet for stormy conditions and 18-20 December as well as 16-18 January secondary peaks. When you consider the overall trends then the best bet for a snowy interval would be during or after that mid-January peak of storminess. Given the high energy peaks available this winter, I will not be at all surprised if one of these winter storms is in the exceptionally severe category (either for wind or snow).

    There are bound to be one or two very mild days in the mix given the high frequency of record or near-record highs in this climate phase, and the most likely times for those would be before the mid-December storminess peak, and possibly in late February when blocking may convert to a southerly flow.
    (end Net-weather post)

    So, for Ireland then, I think this set-up indicates fairly frequent polar maritime northwest flows that will bring heavier than average snowfalls to higher parts of Connacht and Ulster in the first half of the winter season. Stormy peaks indicated would apply about the same to Ireland, I certainly expect there to be three or four significant storms because in the research model some of the secondary energy peaks identified happen to overlap with the primary peaks which is often a sign of a very stormy outcome. Caveat being, if the pattern were to turn very mild then these peaks would slide past to the north and bring in record warmth, and I think that could happen with perhaps the first of these indicated peaks in mid-December.

    Then, in the blocking phase indicated later January into early February, the big question will be, how far west will the arctic air manage to circulate and with what snowfall potential for Ireland? Of course there have been disappointing near misses as we saw in winters of 2012 and 2013 where Britain gets nailed and Ireland gets drizzly leftovers. I am a bit more optimistic about this winter because I think the blocking potential may be greater than at any time since 2010. So I think this means there is a fairly good chance of at least one wintry episode for lower elevations and for eastern Ireland in general (the west seems more assured of some wintry episodes because cold northwesterly flow will deliver without too many complicating factors).

    On the whole then, a rather mixed bag of conditions and including some old-fashioned winter weather as well as some very stormy conditions at times.


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    #176
    Loughc
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,728 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    So you're saying there's a chance.... snow bunnies unite!


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    #177
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Loughc wrote: »
    So you're saying there's a chance.... snow bunnies unite!

    There was a good chance last year, we were so close. :( The QBO is the only reason I know it failed.

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    #178
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The AO is trending downwards as we head towards mid-November also! :eek: Definite signs of northern blocking.

    Nu4jXGM.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #179
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    https://www.facebook.com/ozzymanreviews/videos/1231390976896767/


    Enjoy :D


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    #180
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    https://www.facebook.com/ozzymanreviews/videos/1231390976896767/


    Enjoy :D

    Will-Smith-Get-Out.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #181
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Yeah there was a good 8 inches of snow in Arklow in the February 1991,some epic streamers
    There’s a video on YouTube of it but I couldn’t find it

    I did find this one of Arklow’s Main Street Christmas week 2010
    Bit of traffic chaos :D
    The place looks like a sky resort :)

    Hard to believe it all happened isn’t it

    https://youtu.be/HV00JG3MxLI
    Was just going to to post this from Motors:
    LEIN wrote: »
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lOhghwXTiM


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